MEN’S FINAL
Andy Murray (3.7) vs. Novak Djokovic (1.36)
Well here we are again.
The popular narrative in men’s tennis over the past couple of years has centered around the concept of a “Big 4”– Djokovic, Federer, Nadal, and Murray. Truthfully, though, the “Big 4” is gradually turning into a Big 2, as Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray have separated themselves in recent months and now stand alone atop the sport.
Am I being too generous to Murray here? Maybe I am. Putting him in the same category as Djokovic could be a bit misleading considering the Djoker has 11 career Grand Slam titles to Murray’s two and owns a 23-10 record in their head-to-head meetings. That being said, Murray seems to be closing the gap a little, especially on clay. Once considered his worst surface (and rightfully so), Murray has figured out how to handle himself on the dirt, winning 35 of his last 38 clay-court matches and taking home three tournament titles in that span. The most recent of those came last month in Rome, when he breezed through his five matches without losing a set and easily dispatched Djokovic himself in the final, 6-3, 6-3. So with a straight-set win over Djokovic just three weeks ago and the confidence that comes with an 11-match winning steak on clay, should Murray be viewed as a value here at a price like 3.7? It sure sounds tempting, until you remember what that means: it means you’d be betting on Novak Djokovic to lose a tennis match. Let’s just say that doesn’t happen very often.
To put Djokovic’s recent run of dominance in historical perspective, consider that, with a win on Sunday, he would join Don Budge and Rod Laver as the only men in the history of the sport to hold all four Grand Slam titles simultaneously. Laver last accomplished this feat in 1969, and nobody– not McEnroe, not Lendl, not Sampras, not Federer– has done it since. Djokovic is simply head and shoulders above his competition, combining power and athleticism with a focus and emotional maturity that allows him to maintain an air of serenity without losing his killer instinct. This will be his fourth trip to the French Open final, and after losing the first three he now has a clear opportunity to erase the lone black mark on his career. Do you think this match means anything to him?
Furthermore, Djokovic has been playing objectively better tennis than Murray ever since the two men arrived in Paris. Murray struggled mightily in his first two matches, needing five sets to oust both Radek Stepanek and Mathias Borgue, and he also dropped a set in both his quarterfinal and semifinal wins. Djokovic, by contrast, has only dropped one set all tournament and absolutely pounded Dominic Thiem in Friday’s semifinal, 6-1, 6-2, 6-4. And though Murray was victorious in Rome last month, Djokovic had won 12 of the previous 13 meetings between the two, including a straight-set victory in the Australian Open final earlier this year. Essentially, what we have here is the best player in the world facing someone he habitually beats in one of the biggest matches of either man’s career. I think Djokovic gets the job done on Sunday, and I think he does it emphatically.
Recommendation: Djokovic at 1.36; Djokovic 3-0 (sets) at 2.96
