FRENCH MEN’S FINAL: There’s never been a clay-court player like Rafael Nadal, and on Sunday he’ll step onto Philippe Chatrier Court, site of so many of his triumphs, for what could be his crowning achievement: “La Decima,” a record tenth French Open title. To put that in perspective, no other man has won any grand slam more than 7 times, and no one other than Nadal has won any single tournament more than 8 times (Nadal has racked up 10 titles at both Barcelona and Monte Carlo).
Of course, it isn’t just going to be handed to him: Stan Wawrinka outlasted Andy Murray in an entertaining 5-set semifinal and has become a bit of an upset specialist over the past few years, which makes him, at the very least, a dangerous and unpredictable opponent.
Wawrinka is a strange case, having never advanced beyond the quarterfinal in his first 34 grand slam appearances. Then, at 28 years old, an age when many players are beginning to slow down, Wawrinka flipped the switch and became an elite player seemingly overnight. He’s 32 now, the oldest man to reach the French final in 44 years, and he’s advanced to the semis or beyond in 9 of his past 15 majors– again, this was after failing to advance beyond the quarters in 34 attempts over a nearly a decade. He’s 3-for-3 in grand slam finals, with two of those wins coming over Djokovic– including here at the French in a stunner two years ago– and one over, you guessed it, Nadal, at the 2014 Australian Open. That 4-set victory was Wawrinka’s first over the legendary Spaniard, and Nadal now holds a 15-3 record in head-to-head meetings, though the two men have split their last six matches.
There’s really no one who matches up well with Nadal on clay, but it should be noted that Wawrinka is a very talented, versatile player with terrific power from the baseline and an aggressive streak that often serves him well against elite players. He’s beaten Nadal on clay once (Rome 2015), so he knows what it takes, and the fact that he’s never lost a grand slam final despite being a significant underdog each time speaks to his ability to summon his best in the biggest of moments. His stunning win over Djokovic in this tournament two years ago was probably a bigger upset than him winning tomorrow would be, and I was massively impressed with his stamina and poise in his semifinal win over Murray– there were a couple of times when he really could’ve turned negative and allowed the frustration to get the better of him, but he pressed on like a champion, aggressively taking control of points and eventually breaking Murray’s will in the fifth. He showed the type of fortitude he’ll need if he has any chance of interrupting Nadal’s date with history, and he’s fully aware of the challenge he faces, saying earlier today, “I think to play Rafa on clay in French Open in a final is probably the biggest challenge you can have in tennis.” No argument here.
Nadal’s career record is 78-2 at Roland Garros, and he’s a remarkable 101-2 over the course of his career in best-of-five clay-court matches. We all know what it looks like by now: the heavy topspin, the boundless energy, the emotional intensity… Nadal is machinelike in his ability to chase anything and everything down on the clay, and he forces his opponents into uncomfortable positions– usually pinned in a corner several feet behind the baseline– before firing off forehand winners. There really is no formula for beating Nadal on clay because it so rarely happens, but both of his French Open losses have come to players (Djokovic and Robin Soderling) who managed to combine power and aggressiveness. Sounds easy enough, right? I mean, Wawrinka is powerful, and he’s known for his aggressive style. Does that mean we’ll see him pull another rabbit out of a hat in a grand slam final?
While I certainly wouldn’t dismiss Wawrinka’s chances altogether, anyone who’s seen Nadal play over the past two weeks will tell you that this is his tournament to lose. He’s absolutely ripped through the draw, never losing a set and dropping just 26 total games. His semifinal win over Dominic Thiem was a thing of beauty, a 6-3, 6-4, 6-0 annihilation of a player who had just beaten him last month in Rome. Him losing this final to Wawrinka seems almost unfathomable, short of an injury or some crippling bout of nerves. That being said, I do expect Wawrinka to put up a better fight than Thiem did, and if he’s able to jump on Nadal’s mediocre second serve early he may even be able to steal a set. I wouldn’t be much bolder than that, however.
Recommendation: Nadal at 1.21; Nadal 3-1 (sets) at 3.75
