FRENCH OPEN: While professional tennis is sometimes derided for its utter predictability at the highest of levels, one could never hurl that accusation at the French Open, as the famed red clay at Roland Garros has proven to be a great equalizer through the years and has made some of the sport’s greatest champions look relatively ordinary. There is no more obvious example than Roger Federer, the Swiss master who owns more Grand Slam titles than any men’s player in history (17) but has only hoisted La Coupe des Mousquetaires once.
Federer has shown signs of slippage this season and wasn’t expected to be a serious contender for this year’s title, but that didn’t make Thursday’s news that he was pulling out due to a sore back any less surprising. After all, it’s been 17 years since Federer last missed a Grand Slam and his 65 starts in a row is an all-time record. But alas, two grueling weeks on the mud can really take it out of you, as Federer knows well, and he’s deemed that his best chance to compete at Wimbledon and beyond is by sitting this one out. Again, it just confirms that this tournament is a test like no other in the world of tennis.
Federer isn’t the only big name who traditionally struggles in Paris, of course. World No. 1 Novak Djokovic is still looking for his first career French Open title, while the most dominant women’s player of this era, Serena Williams, has triumphed at Roland Garros just twice in the past ten years. And then there’s the other side of the coin, the players who thrive on clay and become much more dangerous during these two weeks than they are at other times. Someone like Fabio Fognini, for instance, cannot be taken lightly on this surface. And you knew we had to mention the King of Clay, Rafa Nadal, a man who has won this tournament a staggering nine times. There were whispers that Nadal’s career was coming to a premature end as recently as a few months ago, as he played poorly in 2015 and appeared to be physically deteriorating, but he’s been resurgent lately, winning in both Monaco and Barcelona (both on clay), and has become a trendy pick amongst some observers. Nadal can be backed at 7.2 at BETDAQ, placing him just behind market leaders Djokovic (1.9) and Andy Murray (4.8). Williams, as expected, is the clear favorite on the women’s side, but with 13 players priced at 48.0 or shorter it seems that oddsmakers are of the opinion that anything can happen this year. In other words, prepare for a typical French Open…
Here are a few suggestions:
WOMEN’S DRAW
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Garbine Muguruza (9.2)- Picking anyone but Williams is always risky, but Serena hasn’t seemed all that “locked-in” over the past few weeks and may be ripe for an upset. In looking at the rest of the draw, I keep coming back to Muguruza, the gifted 22-year old Spaniard who has racked up a host of high-profile wins over the past several months. Though best remembered for advancing all the way to the Wimbledon final last year, the French is the Slam where Muguruza has seemed most comfortable, advancing to the quarters in each of the past two years (an impressive feat for a young player who is still clearly on the upswing). With a little shot of confidence after winning three matches in Rome two weeks ago, Muguruza seems well-positioned for a deep run and potentially a breakthrough win. I’ll have a taste at 9.2.
Daria Kasatkina (76.0)- Young Russian phenom Kasatkina was given a rude welcome to Grand Slam tennis in January’s Australian Open, when she met Serena Williams in the third round and was swept aside 6-1, 6-1. She’s had some impressive results since then, though, and clay is without question her best surface. A former French Open Junior champion, Kasatkina is a crafty baseliner who moves very well and is adept at controlling the tempo of points and games. She often resembles a seasoned veteran in a young person’s body, which is why many have pegged her a true rising star in the crowded field of young up-and-comers. While she’s a genuine outsider this week, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see her win a few matches and cut her current price in half, making her well worth a bet.
MEN’S DRAW
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Novak Djokovic (1.9)- There’s a real temptation to go with Andy Murray here, as Djokovic has a long history of underperforming on the clay and Murray has been very sharp in recent weeks, as evidenced by his defeat of Djokovic in the Rome final last Sunday. That being said, this is Djokovic we’re talking about here, and the Djokovic we’ve witnessed tear through men’s tennis over the past year is one of the greatest players the sport has ever seen. His game is now well-rounded to the point that it almost seems silly to say he “struggles” on clay, but that’s become the standard line simply because he never, ever loses on any other surface. Of course, he doesn’t lose much on clay, either– prior to the aforementioned loss in last week’s Rome final, he won in Madrid, losing only one set over the course of five matches. I mean… who’s going to beat him this week? There are only about three guys who have any chance at all, and all three of those guys have a higher chance of being upset in the early rounds than does Djokovic. Plus, this is the last true professional mountain that is left for the Djoker to climb, so you know he’ll commit every ounce of his resources and ability towards getting the victory. Anything short of a title will be viewed as an absolute failure– not only by the outside world, but by the man himself– and that’s exactly the attitude you need from the short-odds favorite. This is one of those “if not now, when?” situations for Djokovic, as he’s at the absolute peak of his powers and is indisputably the world’s best player. It’s a reasonable question, and one that I think will be answered affirmatively in a fortnight.
