FRENCH OPEN: The most unpredictable of all the grand slams gets underway this week in Paris, and this year’s edition promises to be even more wide open than usual.
On the men’s side, the “Big Four” have effectively been reduced to rubble, with only Rafa Nadal left standing as the clear favorite. The women’s draw is even more unusual because there’s no clear-cut favorite now that Serena has traded her tennis skirts for maternity clothes, and no fewer than a dozen ladies have to be considered serious contenders.
So we should be in for two weeks of spirited competition on the famed red clay of Roland Garros, and opportunity abounds on BETDAQ’s exchange (for Caan Berry’s expert tips on tennis trading, check out this article). Here are a few thoughts and recommendations:
MEN’S DRAW
It’s been an unusual 18 months in the world of men’s tennis, as we’ve seen the once-invincible Novak Djokovic seemingly lose his way, the man who replaced him at No. 1, Andy Murray, slip into a dreadful funk of his own, and the resurrection of both Roger Federer and Rafa Nadal, two great champions who looked like they were fading away and falling behind the younger generation but have now reclaimed their vitality and are once again seated at the head of the table. Federer won the Australian Open earlier this year, beating Nadal in the final, but has chosen to skip the clay court season– this tournament included– in order to be fully rested for the grass court season, particularly Wimbledon.
Nadal, for his part, has looked like his old self on the clay, winning 17 of his 18 clay-court matches this year and taking home titles in Madrid, Barcelona, and Monte Carlo. He heads BETDAQ’s Win Market at 1.98, so it’s essentially an even-money “Nadal vs. the field” situation this year. We’ve seen “field” lose that particular bet nine times in the past here at the French, and a mind-boggling tenth victory is certainly well within reach for the legendary Spaniard. That being said, there are several guys who have to feel like this is their best chance at the French in years, considering the current state of both Djokovic and Murray, so this particular “Nadal vs. the field” might not be as one-sided in Rafa’s favor as in years past. We shall see.
Recommendations (odds in parenthesis)
LAY Rafael Nadal (2.1)– Look, I realize we’re dealing with the greatest clay court player in history here, and I’m aware that during Nadal’s prime, betting on him to lose this tournament was downright foolish. But despite the rebirth we’ve seen over the past few months and the recent stretch of wins, the fact remains that Nadal is 30 years old now and is indisputably more vulnerable than he was five years ago. His air of invincibility on clay is gone– yes, he’s been playing great tennis lately, but his last match was a straight-set loss to Dominic Thiem in the quarters in Rome. He’s been dealt a tough draw here, with Djokovic, Thiem, and the red-hot David Goffin all on his side of the bracket, and the pressure in what is likely to be his last, best chance for win No. 10 will be intense. Beating back all comers for two weeks might be a bit much to ask at this point, especially when your entire game revolves around outlasting and wearing down your opponent. I have a hunch Rafa the Great will come up short this year, and the opportunity to essentially back the field at even money is too tempting to pass up.
BACK Alexander Zverev (15.0)- Two years ago I was driving home from a wedding when I got a call from a tennis-obsessed friend: “I have seen the future of tennis, and his name is Alexander Zverev.” That’s what he told me. I had never seen the young German play at the time, but when you watch him– a towering 6-foot-6 baseliner with the nimble feet of a much smaller man– you can certainly see what gets people so excited. He can dominate a match with his crisp, powerful, consistent ground strokes, and he displays a certain craftiness and gamesmanship that is rare for a 20-year old. He’s coming off a win in Rome, where he beat Djokovic in the final, and he’s on the opposite side of the draw from both Nadal and Djokovic this week, which is certainly nice. Should Nadal stumble somewhere along the way this tournament will truly be up for grabs, and a young, powerful, confident player like Zverev could be the man to walk away with the title. I believe he’s well worth a bet at a price like 15.0.
WOMEN’S DRAW
Has there ever been a women’s draw more unpredictable than this one? I mean, you could go down the list of favorites and find a flaw with every one: world No. 1 Angelique Kerber is playing terribly, having lost two straight matches to unheralded players; Simona Halep is dealing with a badly sprained ankle that she hurt in her last match; Petra Kvitova is playing for the first time in five months after being injured by a knife-wielding intruder in a home invasion attempt; defending champion Garbine Muguruza is just 3-3 in her last six matches and was forced to retire in the semis in Rome last week due to a neck injury… there simply aren’t any big-name players who inspire a whole lot of confidence right now.
Of course, that’s partly because some of the big-name players will be watching this tournament from home. The most prominent of these, naturally, is Serena Williams, the clear-cut best player in the world who has decided to take on the challenges of motherhood before resuming her career. But Serena isn’t the only notable absence: Maria Sharapova was denied a wildcard bid despite her doping ban having expired, and Victoria Azarenka is still out after giving birth to a son in December. It all combines to produce a murky picture, and it feels like things are ripe for a genuine outsider. Don’t be afraid to go with your gut if you’ve got a longshot that you’re feeling good about.
Recommendations (odds in parenthesis)
BACK Elina Svitolina (8.4)- Okay, so you can find fault with almost all of the favorites this week. The one exception, really, is Svitolina, the 22-year old Ukrainian who has played the best tennis of her career this season and has now shot all the way up to No. 6 in the world. Her confidence should be sky-high after beating Simona Halep in the Rome final last week, giving her another tournament title just two weeks after she won the Istanbul Cup, and she has a navigable draw in which the injured Halep should be her toughest competition en route to the semis. This would be a jump into the deep end of the pool for Svitolina– she’s never even advanced to a grand slam semifinal, though she did reach the quarters here at the French two years ago– but her year has been all about breaking down barriers and reaching new heights, so why should we think she’s going to stop now? She could be the in-form, confident player who takes advantage of a wide-open field.
BACK Carla Suarez-Navarro (43.0)- Though not the most impressive or most athletically-gifted player out there, Suarez-Navarro is a gutsy competitor who seems to save her best for the biggest stages. Clay is her favorite surface and she’s had some nice runs at the French, advancing to the quarterfinal twice and winning 71% of her career matches here, which is her best number among the four grand slams. She’s been really close to a breakthrough recently: last week she lost in the quarters in Strasbourg, but she played very well, losing a 6-7 (5-7), 4-6 heartbreaker to Sam Stosur, and two weeks before that she beat Caroline Wozniacki in Madrid only to lose a 7-5, 4-6, 5-7 nail-biter to Coco Vandeweghe in the following round. She’s got experience, guile, and a great cross-court backhand, and in a year like this, with Serena absent and several of the top seeds dealing with various issues, a player like Suarez-Navarro could rise up and shock the world. She’s certainly worth a bet at better than 40/1.
