SCOTTISH OPEN: The eyes of the golf world turn to the UK this week for the Scottish Open, a tournament that has seen its fortunes rise as much as any event in the world over the past few years. Once merely an Open Championship tune-up with a middling field and modest purse, this tournament has become massively important in its own right, drawing the best players from both sides of the pond on account of its status as a co-sanctioned PGA Tour/DP World Tour event.
After skipping around venues a few times since leaving Loch Lomond 15 years ago, Scotland’s national open seems to have found a permanent home at the Renaissance Club, a Tom Doak-designed track with some interesting characteristics, like significant undulation and some elevated greens, that set it apart from most traditional seaside links courses. Tipping out at 7,237 yards, it’s not particularly long by Tour standards, but like most links it’s completely exposed to the elements and scoring will largely be dependent on the weather, which can change in an instant on the Scottish Coast. Last year things were mostly calm and peaceful, allowing champion Robert MacIntyre to get on a roll and post 18-under for the week, but as recently as 2022 we’ve seen what can happen when difficult weather rolls in, as Xander Schauffele needed only 7-under to get the job done that year.
While the forecast looks nice and calm for the weekend (though, as mentioned, things can change quickly), it appears as though the players may begin the week with some testy conditions, as winds up to 25-30 mph are expected on Thursday afternoon, and possibly into Friday. Keeping the ball in the fairway and out of the thick stuff is of paramount importance at Renaissance, and 30 mph winds will certainly change the calculus on how some holes should be played. Plotting your way around and taking what the course gives you is one of the pleasures of links golf, and sometimes only severe weather can unlock this magic when the pros are playing. Let’s hope we get to see some of that this week.
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (6.8) heads BETDAQ’s Win Market, and though Scheffler may not have as much links experience as some others in the field, he did finish 3rd at this event in 2023 and 12th in 2021 (he skipped last year), so he clearly knows his way around the Renaissance Club. Other top contenders include Rory McIlroy (12.5), who has cooled off considerably since his torrid start to the season; Tommy Fleetwood (23.0), a man just three weeks removed from an egregious choke-job that will stain his reputation for years to come; and defending champ McIntyre (26.0), the native Scot who is probably the most popular champion in the event’s history and has been in good form of late. There are plenty of other big names in attendance — Morikawa, Schauffele, Aberg, Thomas, Hovland, etc. — so we shouldn’t have to wait until next week’s Open for a star-studded leaderboard. With that in mind, here’s what I’m thinking:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Collin Morikawa (30.0)- Though he learned the game in California, far away from the links courses of the UK, Morikawa has proven to be a natural on the links, winning the Open at Royal St. George’s in 2021, finishing 16th at Troon last year, and, more importantly for our purposes, finishing 4th at this tournament a year ago, posting 14-under for the week after breaking 70 in all four rounds. His steadiness and consistency off the tee serves him well in tough conditions, and there’s something about the way he manages his game, always playing to his strengths and never taking unwise chances, that makes him uniquely suited for links golf. He started off this season hot, logging a pair of runner-up finishes in his first four starts, and his T8 at the Rocket Classic last week, where he shot a second-round 64 and ended up posting 19-under 269, speaks to his current form. Morikawa is a blue-chip option this week and a nice value at nearly 30/1.
Adam Scott (55.0)- Don’t look now, but the old vet seems to be rounding into form again and may yet have some more magical weeks in his future before he rides off into the sunset, or the Champions Tour. Though he’s now twice the age of some of the guys he’s competing against every week, Scott hasn’t lost much (if any) of his physical ability, averaging over 300 yards per drive and ranking 33rd on the PGA Tour in strokes gained off the tee. He still has all the shots necessary to conquer any course in the world, and he’s in the midst of a good stretch of form which includes top-35 finishes in each of his past 5 starts, highlighted by a T12 at the U.S. Open and a T19 at the PGA Championship. As you would expect of a veteran of his stature, he knows all about links golf and is just 12 months removed from a runner-up finish at this tournament, when he fired four rounds of 67 or better to post 17-under, just a shot behind champion MacIntyre. He’s well-positioned to give it another run and is an excellent value at better than 50/1.
Byeong Hun An (130.0)- With field this strong there are always some tasty-looking long odds options, and I can’t take my eyes off of An at the astronomical price of 130.0. Though his putting has been ridiculed at times (which he takes in good stride on social media), he’s actually improved considerably in that area over the past couple of years while remaining a premier ball-striker. His game has shown some real signs of life lately — the month of June saw him finish 6th at the RBC Canadian Open and 14th at the Travelers, and he should have some great vibes at Renaissance Club after finishing 3rd in this tournament just two years ago, when he opened with a course record 61 and hung around the top of the leaderboard all week, nearly pulling off the victory. An is very capable of winning this week and should be backed enthusiastically at such an inflated price.
