Tiger Woods shot the lowest round of his career, a final-day 62, but it still wasn’t enough to deny Rory McIlroy the 2012 Honda Classic.
Woods and McIlroy head the BETDAQ market for the event held at the PGA National Resort & Spa’s Champion course in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. Ten of the Top 20 players in the Official World Golf Ranking will tee off.
Previous winners Rory Sabbatini (2011), Camilo Villegas (2010), Y.E. Yang (2009), Ernie Els (2008), Mark Wilson (2007), Luke Donald (2006), Padraig Harrington (2005), Justin Leonard (2003), Matt Kuchar (2002) and Jester Parnevik (2001) will all be participating this weekend at a tournament that has only seen one back-to-back winner (Jack Nicklaus in 1977 and ’78).
PGA National is a Par 70, 7,158-yard course, ranked the second most difficult on the PGA Tour last year.
There are 78 sand bunkers and 26 water hazards on this tricky course that features the notorious “Bear Trap” at holes 15-16-17 – a stretch that could decide the winner this weekend.
It has to be a case of looking for accuracy over distance this weekend, as the rough is relentless and the contours of the greens need the hand of a deft putter.
Wind can also play a big part on this course, so renowned scramblers and those who are well used to playing in Florida should be taken into consideration.
While McIlroy was one of the few big names to come good at this particular event, the roll of honour would suggest that Nostradamus should sit this one out while we attempt to by using the Magic 8 ball. For trying to predict the winner is like trying to use chopsticks to drink water.
Some trends do stand out, however.
In particular, we should look at the Par Four performance stats. Brandt Snedeker tops this list, but he is sitting this one out. The same applies to Jimmy Walker, the No2.
Chris Kirk, Brian Gay and Charles Howell III are the next three in the Par Four performance stats and they are in the line-up.
Howell III is 4th in scoring average, 17th in greens in regulation, 18th in scrambling and 19th in birdie average. He also has three Top 10 finishes from six starts (including a T3 Sony Open, 2nd Humana Challenge and T9th Farmers Insurance) so looks a reasonable proposition. Until, that is, you look at his driving accuracy (174th of 177) and his previous unprepossessing record here – T26th in 2010, T10th in 2011 and T26th last year.
But he should be in contention over the final two days and is available at 60.0 at BETDAQ.
Kirk, third in the Par 4 Performance list, is a similar price to Howell III and added to his T5 Sony Open finish with a runner-up spot at Pebble Beach. But his record at this tournament is far worse, with T56, T29 and 64th place finishes in his last three attempts.
Those looking for a potential big-price upset could do worse than taking a look at Justin Hicks, available at 260.0 with BETDAQ.
Hicks has been on the periphery of the Top 10 in two of his four tournaments this season, a T15 in the Sony Open and a T12 at Pebble Beach, shooting 12-under par and 10-under par respectively. In between, he fired a 17-under par 271 in the Humana Challenge.
Hicks, a Michigan native, resides at Royal Palm Beach in Florida. He is 6th hitting in greens in regulation, 32nd in driving accuracy, 15th in birdie average and if he gets a hot putter, he looks a massive price.
Graeme McDowell seems to thrive on difficult courses and has back-to-back Top 10 finishes here. He also appeared to be running into form with a solid performance in last weekend’s WGC Accenture Match Play. He is right at home on the Bermuda greens of the Florida Swing and his final round 64 for T6 last year will have not done his confidence any harm. The 2010 US Open champion is trading at 3.3 for another Top 10 Finish at BETDAQ.
You can’t ignore Freddie Jacobson’s (pictured) flying start to the season. He has produced three Top 10 finishes on tour and is second in scoring average and in strokes gained putting. A noted scrambler, the Swede is T13 in the PGA lists in this category. He is also T8 in the Par Four Birdies category and T14 in Par Four Performance. The worry is his inability to hit greens in regulation (T78 at a lowly 68.89%), but he likes this course: in his last four Honda Classics, he has produced T16 (2012), T29 (2011), T6 (2010) and T5 (2009) finishes. Jacobson must therefore go on the short-list and he is trading at 31.0 with BETDAQ.
The obvious bet is to follow the money. You all know Tiger’s ability. Despite his first round loss to Howell III in last weekend’s Match Play, the World No2 was much too good for his rivals in the Farmers Insurance Open, despite a nervy last-round 72.
This is an event never won – but last year’s tournament was Woods’ first appearance at the Honda Classic since he was an amateur.
If you fancy that he’ll continue where he left off last year, backing him to lead after the opening round is available at 9.0 with BETDAQ.
Such is the strength of the field, backing him for a Top 5 Finish at 2.83 seems a little short, so why not go for the outright victory at 8.8? Happy hunting.
European Tour – Tshwane Open
Tshwane! Bless you. We are in South Africa again for the inaugural event at Copperleaf Golf and Country Estate, a course designed by Ernie Els, which plays a long par 72, 7,791 yards.
South Africa’s Jaco Van Zyl is the BETDAQ favourite following his victory in the Sunshine Tour’s Dimension Data Pro-Am last week.
But this is not the time to lose faith in Thomas Aiken. He followed up his impressive T6 at the Joburg Open with a T12 at the Africa Open two weeks ago, his average dive of 292 yards is among the longest and he’s hitting a decent 75 per cent of the greens in regulation.
Nuneaton’s Andy Sullivan also has a decent chance of victory, despite his BETDAQ odds of 38.0.
The 26-year-old second-season professional started this season as he finished last. Having signed off 2012 with a T3 at the Alfred Dunhill Championship, he’s made steady progress this season, posting three top-12 finishes in five tournaments, including a T5 in the Africa Open two weeks ago.
Honda Classic suggestions:
Outright
Tiger Woods @ 8.8
Freddie Jacobson @ 31.0
Justin Hicks @ 280.0
Top 10 Finish
G. McDowell @ 3.3
Charles Howell III @ 4.8
Tshwane Open suggestions:
Thomas Aiken @ 19.5
Andy Sullivan @ 38.0
Last week: Mike Yenbland nailed six of 10 First Round winners at the WGC Match Play and Ian Poulter obliged at the suggested 6.2 to make the semi-finals.
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