Tiger Woods, who has won the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village G.C, in Dublin, Ohio, five times including the 2012 edition, leads a contingent of 120 players for the 38th edition of the prestigious invitational Jack Nicklaus started in 1976.
Nicklaus named the course after Muirfield, Scotland, where he won the first of his three British Open titles. It has been lengthened in recent years and now plays a 72-par 7,337 yards.
The back nine at Muirfield Village is where this tournament will be won and lost. The two par fives are there to be eagled, but any waywardness off the tee can see some big numbers appearing on scorecards. There are four par-fives in total.
The par-four 14th can be a devil or a delight, depending on where the pin is placed.
Nicklaus has consistently toughened the layout, growing the rough longer and altering some contours around certain greens. In recent years changes have included lengthening several holes, including the first, 10th, 12th and 17th, adding bunkers, particularly at the 10th and 17th, and re-routing a stream on the 18th hole.
Tight fairways and fast greens make this an ideal preparation for the U.S. Open. But in benign conditions it can be rendered defenceless to some of the world’s best players, particularly if it rains, as the soft greens can kill the ball as soon as it lands on the green. Accuracy and length off the tee ate the two prerequisites in “Jack’s Tournament”.
Wire to wire victories in golf are relatively rare, but in the history of this tournament, only two players that have taken a share of the lead on the first day – Ernie Els (2004) and Justin Rose (2010) – and gone on to lift the trophy. Laying the first round leader has proved a highly profitable exercise.
In the tournament’s first 28 years, it was dominated by Americans, with only Australia’s David Graham (1980) and Greg Norman (1990, 1995), and Fiji’s Vijay Singh (1996) taking the trophy abroad. But in the last nine renewals, the home guard have only won it five times.
With Steve Stricker, Justin Rose, Kenny Perry, K.J. Choi, Carl Pettersson, Ernie Els and Jim Furyk among the winners since 2000, the roll of honour suggests that first-time winners are not what we should be looking for.
So where should our money go this week?
Tiger Woods @ 3.4 ++ LAY ++
World No. 1 Tiger Woods, coming off his fourth win of the year at The Players Championship, heads an all-star cast as he tees it for the 14th time in the Memorial.
Woods, 37, won his fifth Memorial title last season, aided by an incredible chip-in for a birdie at the 70th hole, one of three birdies in the final four holes. He finished at 9-under-par and played the par 5s in 8-under.
Since returning to golf after knee and Achilles injuries sidelined him for four months of his 2011 season, the 14-time major champion and two-time FedEx Cup champion has recorded seven wins and 14 top-10 finishes in 29 events.
Just this season, Woods has four wins in only seven starts, including a recent two-shot victory in The Players’ Championship that marked his 78th career PGA Tour title, putting him second on the all-time list and only four behind Sam Snead.
His resume in this event means he is naturally enough a very short-priced favourite. You would think he has to go on the shortlist, especially since he won at The Players’. It is not his favourite course and to win at Sawgrass speaks volumes for the form he is in.
Five wins from 13 starts here is an incredible record. Only a swivel-eyed loon would take him on. But that record is reflected in his odds and at the current price, and given the strength of the field, it may be worth opposing old Eldrick.
Yes, this sounds as though we are polishing our shoes with the Shroud of Turin. It really could be a perfect time to take on Tiger… or it could end up being as much fun as flossing a shark. Call me a swivel-eyed loon and throw me overboard, because I’m laying Tiger.
Adam Scott @ 24.0
Through five events this year he has recorded three top-10 finishes, including his first-career major championship at The Masters. Scott has only missed the cut once from seven starts at Muirfield Village, and has two top-10 finishes here. Admittedly, the last of those came in 2007, but he is one of the freshest players on Tour, having played a very light schedule so far. That can only be a bonus and it would be a surprise to no-one if the Aussie ruled again.
Lee Westwood @ 38.0
With five top-10 finishes in 2013, Westwood is currently ranked No. 11 in the world and No. 29 in FedExCup points. The 39-year old Englishman, who now lives in West Palm Beach, Florida, finished tied for 29th in his only appearance at Muirfield Village in 2003. He should be bigger than his current odds, but this course should suit him well, since he saves his best golf for the really good courses. We should expect a strong showing from him and a top-10 finish at 3.35 seems a fair price.
Luke Donald @ 48.0
We could easily have plumped for Justin Rose (@31.0 with BETDAQ). After all, his record of six cuts from eight starts here, with a victory in 2010, a runner-up and four top 10s (five top 25s) is bettered only by Woods.
But instead we’ve gone for Donald, who has finished in the top-10 twice in 2013. His best outing came at the RBC Heritage where he finished T3. The 35-year old Englishman has won five career PGA Tour titles and makes his ninth career start at Muirfield Village, where he has finished inside the top-15 in his last four starts, including a 12th place finish last year. One of the hardest workers on Tour, he should relish playing here, since he has made the cut in seven of his eight previous appearances. Backers will naturally be concerned that he missed the cut badly in defence of his title at Wentworth last weekend and he does not have that great length off the tee, but he has largely been playing well (underlined by a T4 in Tampa). His short game and scrambling ability should see him contend.
Nick Watney @ 86.0
Watney is 14th in Greens In Regulation (GIR) percentage and 24th in Total Driving, numbers which stack up pretty well here. His par-five birdies percentage is also decent (ranking 51st). One of the best ball-strikers in the game, this course should play to his strengths, but his big odds owe more to his course form which reads T41-T26-T14-MC-MC, numbers that don’t scream ‘winner’. Yet he is on an upward trend this season, with a T13 in the Masters, T15 in New Orleans and a T10 in the Wells Fargo Championship in three of his last four appearances. The fact that he took a much-needed break after his missed cut at The Players’ can only be a positive.
K.J. Choi @ 186.0
We are leaving man-crush Robert Garrigus on the sidelines this week (despite very appealing odds of 295.0 at BETDAQ for a man who is long off the tee) in favour of a former winner of this event, a man who has made the cut on 12 of 13 occasions here with three top-10s and eight top 25s. He looks a fine back-to-lay bet and is in better form entering this tournament than he was at this time last year, when he finished T19. A top 10 finish is available at 9.0, which doesn’t seem too fanciful.
Match betting
Jason Day to beat Webb Simpson
Simpson missed the cut here last year (his form figures read T48-MC-T7-MC) before he promptly went out and won the U.S. Open. His form has held up well since the Masters, with a runner-up in the RBC heritage, T32 in the Wells Fargo Championship and a T15 at The Players. Day’s record here is similarly ordinary (MC-T27-T33-MC) but he has yet to miss a cut this season and has been selective with his tournaments. He may be a little more refreshed.
Dustin Johnson to beat Rickie Fowler
One questions whether it is a motivation issue for Johnson. He seems to play well when there is a big tournament looming and with the U.S. Open up next, should we anticipate a good showing? He has made five cuts from five starts here and has been in the top 10 twice. There’s plenty to like in this match-up.
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