Once in a while the favourite will win. Tiger Woods came good last weekend at Doral, the second time he’s hurt favourite layers this year.
But with Eldrick sitting the Tampa Bay Championship out – only two of the Top 10 in the FedEx Cup standings will tee off, Brian Gay and Matt Kuchar – there is no clear favourite, with Adam Scott and Sergio Garcia at the head of the market at 16.0. Defending champion Luke Donald is a shade bigger, but it is 20s bar that trio.
The Westin Innisbrook-Copperhead Course in Palm Harbor, Florida, is a 7,340-yard course with plenty of trees and Bermudagrass fairways and greens. The greens are smaller than average, so suits good ball strikers, and there are five Par 3’s and four Par 5’s. It takes an experienced and steady head to win on what was last season rated the fifth easiest course last year.
It will not have gone unnoticed to the course’s management that just two years ago, this par 71 was thought of as being the fourth toughest on Tour. We should expect the course to be more difficult this week.
Veteran players have fared well and five of the last seven winners – including Donald last year – were aged 35 or over.
Driving distance is not essential, but accuracy off the tee and scrambling ability is. You can put Donald, who did not play here in 2011 but was T6 in 2010, in that category. The former World No1 is not favourite on account of some in and out form this season – he didn’t break 70 once on a very tame Doral and managed to double bogey the 18th hole all four days – so there may be a little value to be had. He was favourite last year and beat Sand-Moon Bae in a playoff.
If ever there’s a course he can bounce back on, it is Copperhead.
Likewise, many will fancy Adam Scott, who carded a final round 64 en route to a T3 finish at last weekend’s WGC-Cadillac Championship and led the field in total driving. He also had a T10 finish at the Northern Trust Open – not bad for the only stroke-play events he’s entered this year.
Sergio Garcia will have his supporters, too. That’s no surprise. He’s seemingly been in contention in every event he’s played in this year and he is seldom wayward off the tee, and if you put your faith in the mother of all stats – Greens in Regulation (GIR) – he should be high in that category this week, as he should revel in this tight course.
But if you put too much faith in that particular stat, you’ll be backing Camillo Villegas, who is available at 205, for he currently lies second to Brandt Snedeker in GIR – and you’ll probably do your money.
Matt Kuchar never has two bad weeks in row, so while he disappointed in Miami, he could be among the leaders in Tampa. You’d be better off laying Donald than Kuchar when comparing their collective form this season.
We can also see big-priced veterans Vijay Singh (at 176.0), who has always played well towards the front end of the season and who holds the 72-hole course record of 266 in 2004, and John Mallinger (at 445.0), who ranked 16th in driving accuracy last season, going well for a while.
But in the end, we plumped for this quartet to follow:
Webb Simpson @ 20.0
The last three holes at Copperhead are collectively referred to as ‘The Snake Pit’ and Simpson was snake-bitten by the 18th two years ago when he bogeyed it and finished runner-up. But Simpson ticks many of the boxes and has finished 13th or better here in each of the last three years and that included 10 rounds in 60s. He currently ranked 14th in GIR, 6th in scrambling and 11th in Par 4 Performance. With a decent six-under-par T20 finish at Doral, the US Open champion would appear to be gaining momentum at the right time. It also helps that his regular caddie Paul Tessori returns after a shoulder injury.
Jim Furyk @ 29.0
It’s amazing how a stat can lie. While fourth in driving accuracy last season (he’s ranked fifth this term), 2012 was a year of missed opportunities for Furyk, who underwent too many mental meltdowns. Cases in point included snap-hooking a tee shot out of bounds on the 70th hole of the US Open and missing par putts on 17 and 18 to lose his critical Ryder Cup singles match against Sergio Garcia. But Copperhead plays to his strength – he is consistent, if ungainly, off the tee and has an excellent short game. Now, if he could just rediscover that mental backbone, he will soon add to his double-digit Tour victories.
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Jimmy Walker @ 54.0
Fourth in the PGA All Round ranking, 8th in Birdies and 9th in Scoring Average, Walker has improved his GIR percentage markedly from last season and his ranking of 23rd in scrambling means he should be a much shorter price than he is currently. A T3 at Pebble Beach and a T4 at the Farmers Insurance Open means he is in decent form and he’s yet to miss the cut in six events played. The asterisk to this, and perhaps why he is such a big price, is his previous form here, which reads WD-T16-MC-T51 and carding just two of his previous 13 rounds here in the 60s.
Ryan Palmer @ 150.0
His recent form is not good, missing the cut at Pebble Bleach and in the Northern Trust Open, and a five-over-par T41 total in the Honda Classic. Yet the Texas native has also blown hot this season, with a 23-under-par T6 in the Humana Challenge and a 19-under-par 5th in the Phoenix Open, which included a final-round 62. Tenth in the Masters and runner-up in the Byron Nelson Championship two years ago, he had four Top 10 finishes last year and while he missed the cut in eight of his 24 Tour events, he also posted top 25 finishes in 10 of the 16 weeks in which he saw the weekend. His all-round game has improved over the winter and he should give a good run for your money again.
Tournament Match Bets
Brian Gay to beat Zach Johnson – Gay is a putting machine and a return to the state where he played his golf in college might see a return to the form that saw him take the Humana Challenge. Despite having a terrible hairstyle, he should be more at home on a course that has never suited Johnson’s game.
Robert Garrigus to beat Jason Day – Despite coming off a poor finish in the WGC_Cadillac Championship, Garrigus had four Top 20s in his five events prior to that with his worst finish being a T22.He is coming off a poor finish at the Cadillac Championship but in five events prior to that, he had four Top 20s with his worst finish being T22. His T2 here in 2012 was one of five runner-up places last year.
Nick Watney to beat Scott Piercy – Only three players rank better in GIR percentage than Watney, who has placed three times in the top 13 here in the last four years.
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