It was a case of so close but yet so far for Europe as Henrik Stenson came within a shot of ending a run of 14 consecutive American victories on the PGA Tour last weekend.
However, unheralded D.A Points managed to hold on to win the Shell Houston Open, holing a 13-footer on the final hole and scuppering our advised 47-1 bet in the process. Back-to-Lay bettors also had a field day by following our 37-1 selection Lee Westwood, who was as low as 10-1 before he’d even played 16 holes of the first round. All three advised match bets also won.
And there is one last chance to try and pick a winner before The Masters, by attempting to find the winner of the Valero Texas Open at the AT&T Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio, which starts on Thursday.
Rory McIlroy is not just the lone star in the field for the event in San Antonio, but he is a late entry for the event, which is usually played after The Masters. That is not surprising, because the young Northern Irishman is struggling to find consistent form and he still feels he needs to fine-tune his game after shooting a four-under-par 284, closing with a final-day 70.
There appears to be plenty left to work on, particularly his swing. His short game is passable at present, but he’s still making too many errors. A T45th-placed finish against a largely average Tour field suggests he is still getting used to playing with his new clubs. He ranked outside the top 60 in both fairways and greens hit. Just as well his putting was up to snuff, where he was seventh in strokes gained.
He is not making any excuses – and he talks a good game, saying there are “still a lot of things I can take from it” and “I think the way I’ve struck the ball for the most part has been really good”.
And let’s face it, McIlroy is hardly going to blame his new clubs, or Nike would quickly end their lucrative sponsorship.
Arguably, the World No.2’s poor form has nothing to do with the equipment. He will hit a hot streak and he will also experience low points. This is a combination of relative youth and his swing, which needs refinement. He is going to remain inconsistent all the while his swing is not automatic and thus his ball-striking is not going to be pure and crisp.
Golf is two parts talent and one part mental. He has won two Majors, so you would think that the mental part of his game is assured. But he is still a bright young star who will be prone to mental lapses which can only be overcome by confidence.
Bettors should ask themselves if backing him to win at 10.0 in a relatively weak field this week is feasible, when all his thoughts will be winning next week in Augusta? The rankings say he is the best player in the field (with Tiger Woods resting), but is he playing with enough confidence? And does entry into this event look something like an afterthought or a panic measure?
Momentum doesn’t necessarily mean victory. Trevor Immelman had very little momentum going into The Masters in 2008 but won. Likewise, Phil Mickelson was hopeless in the Shell Houston Open in 2010 but won at Augusta.
So we can’t write off McIlroy next week, despite the lack of recent form and his ordinary play on two previous visits to The Masters. He just does not look great value this week.
There are 12 Major winners in the 156-strong field this weekend (and you thought picking the winner of the Grand National was tough), on a course that plays tight and boasts deep bunkers. Last year, when Ben Curtis won (nine-under-par), it was rated as the most difficult on the Tour outside of Augusta.
Some of the holes have had a facelift and will play a little easier, and we are not expecting the weather to be such a factor, although the wind will still play a few tricks as it invariably does here.
It is better to be accurate rather than long off the tee on this 7,522-yards course, which comprises Bermuda grass on the tees, fairways and rough, while the greens are Ultradwarf Bermuda grass.
It is tough to know what the motivation will be for first-timers like Charl Schwartzel, Jim Furyk and Ian Poulter, although with $1.16million on offer to the winner, we can hazard a guess.
Last year’s champion Ben Curtis is here to defend his title, along with fellow past winners Brendan Steele, Justin Leonard and Tim Herron.
Do we go with proven recent form or those who have fared well here before? Here’s our top trio to follow:
Charl Schwartzel @ 12.5
There is difficulty in knowing whether Schwartzel is merely getting more reps or whether he will be a factor. He competed in the Maybank Malaysian Open last week, which was cut to 54 holes owing to bad weather. A final round 71 followed rounds of 67 and 68 to finish T4. On that form, he has to be a contender – it is certainly better than McIlroy’s current form, given Rory failed to break 70 in four rounds in the Shell Houston Open. While he has not played this track, Schwartzel has yet to miss a cut on the PGA Tour in four starts this year and his best finish was a T3 at the Northern Trust Open. First in scoring average (68.677) and 14th in driving distance, he will need to be accurate off the tee (he’s only 60th in the category of Greens In Regulation percentage) to have a chance. But this is not a strong field.
Freddie Jacobson @ 25.0
The Swede has a good combination of course history and good form. Runner-up here in 2010 and T5 and T18 in his two subsequent starts, Jacobson hasn’t done too much wrong this season, either. His T16 at Doral was a good effort on his last start and he has three Top 10 finishes from six starts. Given that he is a proven scrambler, ranking fifth in that category, and is second only to Tiger Woods in scoring average (68.263), he should be in the hunt. The only real asterisk is his accuracy with the driver – Freddie needs to have a solid weekend, since he’s hit just 136 of a possible 251 fairways this term. While Ian Poulter has been wholly consistent this term and is a similar price, Jacobson looks the horse for this course.
Charley Hoffman @ 50.0
Comes here off a T20 at the Shell Houston Open but it is his previous form at this tough course which gives him a chance – two T13s and a T2 in his last three visits. He has a passable GIR percentage (68.29%) and is in the top 30 in birdie average and eagles per hole. His accuracy will always put him in with a chance of making a putt or two and if he gets a few breaks, there is no reason why he should not contend again.
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