It’s a new era for the WGC Match Play, as the powers that be have decided to fix the tournament’s primary “problem”– big-name stars being eliminated early– by changing the format from a traditional single-elimination bracket to a World Cup-style pod system.
The field has been divided into sixteen 4-man pods, with the winner of each pod qualifying for a 16-man single-elimination tournament that begins on Saturday. This ensures three competitive rounds for every player (making the sponsors happy) and also means that the eventual champion will have played seven competitive rounds over five days, an unprecedented stretch in the world of professional golf. Of course, with a $1.5 million check awaiting the winner and a guaranteed payday for all involved, I doubt we’ll hear much complaining.
The new format does eliminate some of the excitement and unpredictability that is a big part of match play golf, but even the staunchest supporters of the old system would have to admit that this WGC Match Play event had turned into a strange type of golf tournament, one that often seemed to get less and less exciting as the week progressed. Will this year’s version be any different, or will it serve as more ammunition for those who think that match play should be left for the Ryder Cup?
Here are this week’s selections:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Jim Furyk (30)- A winner at the Heritage two weeks ago and a match play stalwart, Furyk’s odds are a bit out-of-whack at the moment and the situation calls for a bet. I mean, do you honestly think that Henrik Stenson is nearly twice as likely to win this event as Furyk, as the odds would suggest? That’s called value, friends.
Ryan Moore (68)- Speaking of value, I’m not sure you’re going to do much better than Ryan Moore at 68.0. I’m apparently not alone in this feeling, either, as Moore was trading at 74.0 when I began typing this article (it moves fast at the Daq!). It’s still a price worth jumping on, though, because Moore has a couple of things going for him: first, and most importantly, he’s played very well over the past few weeks, notching five top-25 finishes in his last six starts. What also should be taken into consideration, though, is Moore’s prolific amateur career. I realize it’s been over 10 years since he put together the best summer that amateur golf had seen since the days of Bobby Jones, but it’s worth remembering this week because nearly all of his amateur success came in match play events, and the format is so rarely used in professional golf that Moore’s experience– albeit at a lesser level– could give him an advantage over some of his opponents. When you combine excellent recent form, a match play “edge”, and a price of 68.0, you’ve got the best bet on the board.
George Coetzee (148)- Some may not like the idea of backing both Furyk and Coetzee in the overall market because they’re both in Group 5, so only one of them can advance to the elimination stage. While I understand the logic there, the fact that Coetzee has been saddled with such astronomically long odds really makes the grouping a nonissue from my perspective. How do you not throw a couple of bucks at Coetzee, a guy who has won once and finished third twice in his last three starts (Tshwane Open, Investec Cup, Trophee Hassan II)? Remember also that Coetzee made some noise at this event last year, beating Steve Stricker and Patrick Reed before losing to eventual champion Jason Day. He may not be a household name yet, but savvy observers know that Coetzee has a better chance this week than his odds would indicate.
GROUP MARKETS
Group 1
Recommendation: Rory McIlroy at 1.94
Jordan Spieth has unquestionably stolen some of McIlroy’s thunder in recent weeks, but the 25-year old Ulsterman is playing well and is the clear favorite in Group 1, which also includes Billy Horschel, Brandt Snedeker, and Jason Dunfner. Both Horschel and Snedeker have been up-and-down of late, while Dufner simply isn’t hasn’t been himself as he works through personal issues and a change to his body. Rory is the play here.
Group 8
Recommendation: Dustin Johnson at 2.38
Johnson was upset by Peter Hanson in the first round of this event last year, leading some to wonder about his match play abilities. While those questions have yet to be answered (he has a 4-7 career record at the Ryder Cup), it’s clear that Johnson is the best player in a group that also features Victor Dubuisson, Charl Schwartzel, and Matt Jones, and for that reason I’ll take a stab at him at better than even money. I actually think Jones is the biggest threat here, as Schwartzel has had some swing issues over the past few months and Dubuisson has been categorically overvalued since his run to the finals in this tournament last year.
Group 13
Recommendation: Shane Lowry at 4.6
Rickie Fowler, Graeme McDowell, and Harris English are all quality players, but they’re not quite good enough to scare me away from Shane Lowry at such friendly odds. Harding Park should suit Lowry’s game nicely– it lacks some of the around-the-greens trickery that gave him trouble at Augusta National– and he seems to have a disposition well-suited for match play golf. Fowler is the main threat here, but this group is closer to a “toss up” than the odds would suggest.
WEDNESDAY MATCHES
Bubba Watson (1.36) vs. Miguel Angel-Jimenez (3.2)
This feels a bit like picking off the low-hanging fruit, as Watson is the prohibitive favorite for a reason. I’m not about to turn my nose up at easy money, though, and picking Bubba over the Mechanic is exactly that: easy. Look, I love rooting for Jimenez and I find Watson more than a little grating, but Bubba’s going to have a 50-yard advantage on some holes and he’s played some great golf this year. It just feels like self-destruction is the only way he’ll lose. Recommendation: Watson at 1.36
Ryan Palmer (1.4) vs. Anirban Lahiri (2.88)
Ryan Palmer is a native Texan who tends to play his best golf on firm, wind-swept, Bermuda-covered courses, where his natural ball flight– a low draw– is an asset. Harding Park, in beautiful Northern California, does not fit the profile of a “Ryan Palmer course”. Meanwhile, Anirban Lahiri may be the most anonymous player in the field, but he’s had two worldwide wins since February, he made the cut at The Masters and was climbing up the leaderboard at The Heritage, his last tournament, before a mediocre final round left him in a tie for 44th. In other words, the 27-year old native of India os playing the best golf of his career. Palmer hasn’t played in two weeks; will he be rested or rusty? Others have more confidence in him than I do, apparently. Recommendation: Lahiri at 2.88
NEW !!!
You can now follow BETDAQ updates on Google+
For further details – CLICK HERE
£20 FREE BET
