Green Bay Packers (1-2, 0-3 ATS) @ Chicago Bears (2-1, 2-1 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Green Bay -2 (50.5)
Significant Injuries
Green Bay: WR Jarrett Boykin (questionable– knee), LB Brad Jones (questionable– quadricep)
Chicago: WR Brandon Marshall (questionable– ankle), DE Jared Allen (questionable– illness), S Chris Conte (questionable– shoulder), C Roberto Garza (out– ankle), LB Shea McClellin (out– hand), CB Sherrick McManis (out– quadricep), DT Jay Ratliff (out– concussion), G Matt Slauson (out– ankle)
Recent Trends
Green Bay is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning record
Green Bay is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss
Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. NFC North opponents
Green Bay is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these 2 teams
Chicago is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games vs. NFC North opponents
The OVER is 4-1 in Green Bay’s last 5 road games
The OVER is 4-0 in Chicago’s last 4 games vs. NFC opponents
The OVER is 16-5 in Chicago’s last 21 games overall
The UNDER is 11-2 in the last 13 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Green Bay
1. The Packers always cover when these teams meet… 6 of the last 7 times to be exact. Bettors seem to be losing all faith in Green Bay after a couple of road losses to good teams, while the Bears continue to be overvalued. Even after their win/cover last week, Chicago has covered just 6 times in their last 19 games.
2. The Bears have one of the NFL’s worst defenses and they’re especially bad against the run, surrendering nearly 145 rushing yards per games this season after allowing over 160 rush yards per game in 2013. Green Bay tailback Eddie Lacy, a rising star, will run all over this Chicago defense.
3. Aaron Rodgers is one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks, a future Hall of Famer, and he’s had tremendous success against the Bears throughout his career. His counterpart, Chicago’s Jay Cutler, is notoriously unreliable and has been a terrible bet since entering the league. In Cutler’s 8-year career, his team has finished with a winning record against the spread just once.
Three reasons to back Chicago
1. Over the first three weeks of the season the Packers have been exposed for what they are: a team with a soft defense and an offense that is devoid of playmakers. The Green Bay offense is now the Jordy Nelson Show with an occasional cameo appearance by Randall Cobb, and as a result they currently rank 28th in total yards per game.
2. The Bears are coming off back-to-back road wins over quality teams and somehow they’re a home underdog here. Sharp bettors will jump on this team before the general public catches on to just how good they are… they’re much-improved this season, especially on defense.
3. Chicago is averaging 25 points per game this season and the Packers rank 27th in scoring defense, surrendering 26.3 points per game. That means it should be a big day for Jay Cutler and Co., which begs the question: How can a Green Bay offense that is averaging just 289 yards and 18 points per game possibly keep up?
Prediction
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