Green Bay Packers (7-3, 6-3-1 ATS) @ Minnesota Vikings (4-6, 5-5 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Green Bay -7.5 (48.5)
Significant Injuries
Green Bay: LB Nick Perry (questionable– shoulder), CB Jarrett Bush (questionable– groin), DE Datone Jones (questionable– ankle), TE Brandon Bostick (out– hip)
Minnesota: DT Sharrif Floyd (questionable– knee), OT Matt Kalil (questionable– knee), WR Greg Jennings (questionable– ribs), WR Jarius Wright (questionable– hamstring), RB Matt Asiata (out– concussion)
Recent Trends
Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a win
Green Bay is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall
Green Bay is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing record
Minnesota is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss
Minnesota is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games
The OVER is 6-0 in Green Bay’s last 6 games vs. NFC opponents
The OVER is 7-1 in Green Bay’s last 8 road games
The UNDER is 5-1 in Minnesota’s last 6 games following a loss
The OVER is 9-4 in Minnesota’s last 13 home games
Three reasons to back Green Bay
1. The Packers have been dominant in recent weeks, winning 6 of their past 7 games and doing it in style, with 5 of those 6 wins coming by 21 points or more. They’re simply much better than the 4-6 Vikings, a team that has lost 5 games this season by 8 points or more.
2. The Green Bay offense leads the NFL in points scored (33 ppg) and they’re playing their best football right now, as they’ve produced a staggering 108 combined points in their last two games. When these teams met back in Week 5 the Packers hung 42 points on the hapless Vikings in a blowout win. What has changed between then and now? Not much…
3. The Vikings have one of the NFL’s worst offenses, a unit that ranks 30th in total yards per game and 28th in points scored. They’ve produced fewer than 20 points in 5 of their past 6 games. How, then, are they going to keep pace with the high-flying Packers?
Three reasons to back Minnesota
1. The Vikings are generally a good bet at home, covering in 6 of their past 8 opportunities, and the Packers are a team that frequently plays “down” to the level of their competition. As a matter of fact, Green Bay has covered just once in their last 7 games against teams with losing records.
2. The Packers simply cannot stop the run– they rank 29th in rushing defense, surrendering 139.1 rushing yards per game– and the Vikings have run the ball effectively all season, producing nearly 120 yards per game on the ground. That means we should expect time-consuming drives from the Minnesota offense, which will shorten the game and keep Aaron Rodgers on the sideline.
3. As good as the Green Bay offense has been this season, they’ve been decidedly ordinary on the road, producing just 22.2 points per game in five opportunities. It won’t get any easier for them this week against the tough Minnesota defense, a unit that ranks in the top-half of the league in both yards allowed and points allowed and is especially good in the secondary, where they surrender just 225.2 pass yards per game.
Prediction
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