Indianapolis Colts (0-2, 1-1 ATS) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2, 0-2 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Indianapolis -7.5 (45)
Significant Injuries
Indianapolis: WR Hakeem Nicks (questionable– illness), DT Ricky Jean-Francois (questionable– ankle), G Joe Reitz (questionable– ankle), LB Jerrell Freeman (out– hamstring), DT Arthur Jones (out– ankle)
Jacksonville: TE Clay Harbor (questionable– calf), WR Marquise Lee (out– hamstring)
Recent Trends
Indianapolis is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. AFC South opponents
Indianapolis is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a losing record
Jacksonville is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. AFC South opponents
Jacksonville is 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 home games
The OVER is 6-1 in Indianapolis’ last 7 road games
The OVER is 4-1 in Jacksonville’s last 5 home games
The UNDER is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Jacksonville
1. As a 7.5-point home underdog against a division opponent that is winless this season, the Jags certainly aren’t being given much respect by the oddsmakers in this situation. They’re better than people realize, though, especially on defense, where they shut down the high-powered Philadelphia offense for 2 quarters in Week 1.
2. The Colts simply aren’t as good as people thought they were going to be, especially on defense, where they’ve surrendered 61 points in two games. They have no business being a 7.5-point road favorite over anybody right now.
3. Everything seems to be working in Jacksonville’s favor heading into this game: it’s their home opener, they’re facing an overrated division rival, the oddsmakers have totally written them off, and their best offensive player, wideout Cecil Shorts, will be making his season debut. This is the type of home underdog that bettors should be looking for.
Three reasons to back Indianapolis
1. The Colts have lost two close, tough games this season against two of the better teams in the league– Denver and Philadelphia. That means they’re in a must-win situation this week when they head to Jacksonville, a place where they won 37-3 last year. We can be sure of one thing: the Colts will be playing with urgency on Sunday.
2. There is no worse bet in the NFL than the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags are just 6-17 ATS in their last 23 games despite being underdogs IN ALL 23 GAMES, a record of futility that is unmatched leaguewide. They’re especially bad at home, where they’ve covered just 3 times in their last 16 games.
3. The Colts have the better offense, better defense, and better quarterback. Those three facts are indisputable. The Jags have been beaten 75-10 over the last 6 quarters of game action. Really, what else is there to say?
Prediction
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