Kansas City Chiefs (0-1, 0-1 ATS) @ Denver Broncos (1-0, 0-1 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Denver -13 (50.5)
Significant Injuries
Kansas City: G Jeff Allen (out– elbow), RB De’Anthony Thomas (out– hamstring)
Denver: S David Bruton (questionable– shoulder), G Ben Garland (doubtful– ankle), LB Danny Trevathan (out– knee)
Recent Trends
Kansas City is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games
Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record
Denver is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record
Denver is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 September games
Denver is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games
The OVER is 4-0 in Kansas City’s last 4 road games
The OVER is 4-0 in Kansas City’s last 4 games vs. AFC West opponents
The UNDER is 5-1 in Denver’s last 6 games vs. AFC West opponents
The UNDER is 5-1-1 in the lat 7 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Kansas City
1. Let’s start with the most obvious: 13 points?!?! The Chiefs were a playoff team a year ago and they have talented veterans on both sides of the ball; this isn’t the Jaguars we’re talking about here. A 13-point number is absurd in this situation… there’s just so many things that can go wrong for Denver bettors.
2. The Broncos are vulnerable on defense, especially in the secondary. They ranked 27th against the pass in 2013 and struggled again last week, surrendering 370 passing yards to Andrew Luck and the Colts. Kansas City’s Alex Smith is a capable quarterback who should have plenty of success in this game.
3. Denver has been overvalued at home lately, covering just once in their last 5 home games despite winning four of those games outright. Considering the cartoonish 13-point number in this game, I think it’s safe to say that the lines still don’t mesh with reality when Denver plays at home.
Three reasons to back Denver
1. The Broncos had the best offense in the history of the NFL last season and they looked pretty darn good in Week 1, putting up 31 points against a solid Indianapolis defense. Their offensive brilliance is why covering double-digit numbers is no issue: last year they were 4-2 ATS as double-digit faves.
2. The Kansas City defense has been downright awful lately, surrendering 26 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games. They’re especially soft in the secondary, which is bad news when you’re getting ready to face Peyton Manning and the high-octane Broncos. The Chiefs couldn’t handle Jake Locker and Tennessee last week, so what will they look like against Manning?
3. Kansas City has major problems on the offensive line, which is why they couldn’t get Jamaal Charles going last week. The strength of the Denver defense is the front seven, so look for Charles to have little room to run again on Sunday. That means it’ll come down to Alex Smith (and a depleted receiving corps) vs. Peyton Manning… if you’re thinking “blowout”, you’re not alone.
Prediction
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