MADRID OPEN: Somebody forgot to tell Andy Murray that clay was supposed to be his worst surface. The 28-year old Scot went off-script a bit yesterday, upsetting the greatest clay-court player in history– Rafa Nadal– just as Nadal was seeming to regain his dominant form. It was only Murray’s second career victory over Nadal on clay, but it was rather clinical and complete: he consistently pushed Nadal behind the baseline, took advantage of the Spaniard’s beatable serve, and fought through inconsistency in his own first serve to pull off a few well-times aces, eventually winning 7-5, 6-4. There can no longer be any doubt about the well-rounded nature of Murray’s game, and now the world No. 2 has just one more hill to climb…
Oh, but the climb is a steep one. For as good as Murray is, and as much as he’s improved, there is a singular force in men’s tennis right now that reigns unchallenged, and his name is Novak Djokovic. The Djoker is simply better than everyone else, and he knows it. Just listen to the condescension and “attaboy” spirit dripping from every word when he talked about Murray’s win over Nadal yesterday: “I think Andy has tremendously improved in the last couple of years on clay courts. He’s learned that he has to construct the point, to be patient… he’s proved that he’s one of the best in the world on this surface.” He then patted Murray on the head, handed him a lollipop and said “there you go, sport.”
While that last part may have only happened in my mind, Djokovic’s words yesterday did not sound like they were coming from a man who was particularly concerned about his upcoming opponent. And why would he be? Since the 2013 Wimbledon final, Murray has beaten Djokovic exactly once in 12 attempts. And the majority of those matches, like the most recent one– in the Australian Open final a few months back– have not been particularly close. One exception was last year’s French Open semifinal, when Murray pushed the Djoker to five sets before running out of steam and winning just a game in the fifth. That was the last time these two met on clay, which has to be rather encouraging to Murray and a further sign that he’s improving on the mud. Clay is also Djokovic’s weakest surface, after all, and he needed a second-set tiebreak to hold off Japan’s Kei Nishikori yesterday. Could an upset be in the works at the Caja Magica today?
While stranger things have certainly happened, I’m not real eager to put all my eggs in the “Novak Djokovic losing a tennis match” basket. However, I give Murray a better-than-average chance of winning a set, and BETDAQ’s price for such an outcome is pretty fair, in my opinion. Let’s see if we can strike gold on this lovely Sunday… Recommended Bets: Djokovic at 1.28, Djokovic 2-1 (sets) at 3.9
