Minnesota Vikings (1-1, 1-1 ATS) @ New Orleans Saints (0-2, 0-2 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: New Orleans -10 (49)
Significant Injuries
Minnesota: LB Brandon Watts (questionable– knee), LB Michael Mauti (questionable– foot), WR Rodney Smith (questionable– hamstring), RB Adrian Peterson (out– suspension)
New Orleans: FB Erik Lorig (questionable– ankle), S Marcus Ball (questionable– hamstring), RB Mark Ingram (out– hand), DT John Jenkins (out– pectoral)
Recent Trends
Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss
Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record
New Orleans is 20-5 ATS in their last 25 home games
The OVER is 4-1 in Minnesota’s last 5 road games
The UNDER is 12-3 in New Orleans’ last 15 games vs. NFC opponents
The OVER is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Minnesota
1. The Minnesota offense should thrive against a New Orleans defense that has been absolutely pathetic this season, surrendering 31.5 points per game and ranking 29th in total defense.
2. The Vikings have responded very well to adversity recently, going 5-0 against the number in their last 5 games following a loss. They’ve also had quite a bit of success in New Orleans, covering in 4 of their past 5 trips to the Big Easy.
3. The Saints have been badly overvalued this season, losing to both Cleveland and Atlanta despite being favored in both games. The beat rolls on this week, as they’re a double-digit favorite despite having a defense that hasn’t been able to stop anybody. The line in this game is just out of hand; Minnesota is the only sensible play.
There reasons to back New Orleans
1. There’s no better bet in the NFL than the Saints in New Orleans; they’re 20-5 ATS in their last 25 home games despite being favored in 23 of those games. That’s remarkable, when you think about it. This week they’re in a must-win situation against a bad team. This one could get ugly…
2. The Saints have one of the league’s best offenses, a unit that is currently averaging 29 points and 434.5 total yards per game. The Vikings, meanwhile, ranked 31st against the pass last season and were shredded by the New England offense last week. This should be another banner day for Drew Brees and the high-flying Saints.
3. The Vikings are without their best player and emotional leader, Adrian Peterson, after he was indicted for child abuse last week. That means the offensive burden will shift to quarterback Matt Cassel, who threw 4 interceptions in a demoralizing Week 2 loss. Minnesota simply doesn’t have the necessary offensive weaponry to compete with the Saints, especially in New Orleans.
Prediction
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