Baltimore Ravens (6-4, 5-4-1 ATS) @ New Orleans Saints (4-6, 4-6 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: New Orleans -3 (51)
Significant Injuries
Baltimore: WR Michael Campanaro (out– thigh), OT Jah Reid (out– hand)
New Orleans: WR Robert Meachem (questionable- ankle), LB Kyle Knox (out– hand), RB Khiry Robinson (out– forearm)
Recent Trends
Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Monday night games
Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
Baltimore is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games
New Orleans is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning record
New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday night games
The OVER is 5-1 in Baltimore’s last 6 road games
The UNDER is 4-1 in New Orleans’ last 5 games following a double-digit home loss
The OVER is 5-2 in New Orleans’ last 7 games overall
Three reasons to back Baltimore
1. The Ravens have simply been better than the Saints this season: they have a superior record, they’ve performed better against the spread, they have a much better defense, and they’ve even scored more points than the vaunted New Orleans offense. The line in this game has everything to do with the Saints’ reputation as a great home team, but is that reputation warranted after watching the Saints lose back-to-back games in the Superdome? The wrong team is favored here.
2. Baltimore has an efficient offense that ranks 11th in total yards per game and 8th in points scored, while New Orleans has a miserable defense that allows 25.2 points per game and ranks 20th or worse in every major statistical category. Expect a big game from Joe Flacco and Co.
3. The Baltimore defense has been positively dominant this season, surrendering just 18.1 points per game. They’re coming off a bye, so they’ve had an extra week to prepare for the suddenly struggling New Orleans offense, a unit that has produced 30 points or more just once since Week 5.
Three reasons to back New Orleans
1. Two straight losses have created value on the New Orleans side this week, as the Saints are now just a 3-point favorite over a mediocre Baltimore team that has lost 2 of its past 3 games. Bettors who know what they’re doing love backing New Orleans at home, and with good reason: the Saints are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games against teams with winning records and 25-9 ATS in their last 34 home games overall. The Ravens, meanwhile, have covered just once in their past 6 road games.
2. Drew Brees remains one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks– he currently ranks 3rd in the league in pass yards per game– and he’s surely licking his chops at the thought of facing the vulnerable Baltimore secondary. The Ravens have really struggled against potent passing attacks this year; they rank 22nd in pass defense and just two games ago they surrendered 340 yards and 6 touchdowns to Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers.
3. Baltimore has regressed offensively over the course of the season, producing 24 points or fewer in each of their past 3 games, and the Saints are unquestionably improving on defense, holding five straight opponents below 30 points after surrendering 30 points or more 3 times in their first 5 games. Based on the way both teams are trending, it would be a surprise in the Ravens exceeded 20-24 points on Monday night.
Prediction
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