Philadelphia Eagles (1-0, 1-0 ATS) @ Indianapolis Colts (0-1, 1-0 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Indianapolis -3 (54)
Significant Injuries
Philadelphia: WR Josh Huff (out– shoulder), OT Matthew Tobin (out– ankle)
Indianapolis: DT Josh Chapman (questionable– ankle), DT Arthur Jones (questionable– shoulder), LB Jerrell Freeman (out– hamstring), G Joseph Reitz (out– ankle)
Recent Trends
Philadelphia is 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 September games
Indianapolis is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games
Indianapolis is 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss
Indianapolis is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
The OVER is 6-1-1 in Philadelphia’s last 8 Monday night games
The OVER is 7-1 in Indianapolis’ last 8 games vs. a team with a winning record
The OVER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Philadelphia
1. The Eagles have one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses; they ranked 2nd in the league in total offense last season and scored 34 2nd-half points in a Week 1 win over Jacksonville. This game is indoors on a fast track… the Colts just won’t be able to keep up with Chip Kelly’s “warp speed” attack.
2. Philadelphia’s primary strength is their running game– they led the NFL in rushing in 2013 and racked up 145 rushing yards in Week 1 of this season. Well, the Indianapolis defense really struggles against the run, finishing 26th in rush defense last year and surrendering over 100 yards on the ground in a Week 1 loss to Denver. This is the worst possible matchup for the Colts defense.
3. The Indianapolis offense just isn’t as good as people seem to think it is. They finished in the bottom-half of the league in both rushing offense and passing offense in 2013 and failed to move the ball consistently against a soft Denver defense last week. They’re viewed in a much different way though, primarily because of the presence of a big-name quarterback. The lines reflect this over-enthusiasm for the Colts offense; it’s why Indy is favored this week.
Three reasons to back Indianapolis
1. The Colts have one of the NFL’s brightest young stars in quarterback Andrew Luck, and this week he’ll be facing a defense that allowed more passing yards than any team in the NFL in 2013. Luck threw for 370 yards last week, so he should absolutely light up this Philadelphia defense.
2. Indianapolis is a team on the rise: they won their division (and a playoff game) last season and nearly came back to beat defending AFC champion Denver in Week 1. They now have a “showcase”-type game– home on a Monday night against a much-hyped opponent. They’re still just unknown enough to be a great value, but after Monday night the days of backing this team at home and only having to lay 3 points may be over. Take advantage while the value still exists.
3. The Colts are a great home team, having covered in four consecutive home games. They’re also great on Monday night (8-2 ATS in their last 10) and great at bouncing back after a loss, as they’ve covered in 14 of their last 16 games following a defeat (and they lost last week, remember?). Plus, the Colts never have any trouble with the Eagles, going 5-0 against the number the last five times these teams have met. All signs point to an Indianapolis win/cover this week.
Prediction
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