You have to go back to the dominant Chicago team of the mid-Eighties to find the last time Chicago won back-to-back games in Dallas (December 1985 and November 1986), so history is against them when they travel to face America’s team on Monday night.
They have alternated wins and losses since then, two seasons ago winning 27-20. So the theory goes that it is the turn of Dallas to win on Monday night.
The Cowboys love the spotlight, having won 43 and lost 29 of their MNF appearances. In contrast, the Bears are the Boomtown Rats of the NFL, they simply don’t like Mondays, having have a dismal 21-35 record on MNF (although they are 7-2 under head coach Lovie Smith)
And the musical interlude is, as if you hadn’t guessed…..
These, of course, are historical stats and most handicappers would tell you that they are meaningless, as these are different teams, different times.
The problem facing bettors this season is that the Chicago Bears are consistent in their inconsistency. The offensive line still appears to be a work in progress, but many felt that the defence was going to take a step back, as collective age catches up with them. This does not appear to be the case, for they lead the NFL in sacks and are second in takeaways.
Dallas must be wondering what they have done, being confronted with some decent defences in the form of the New York Giants (who, at the time, had a rash of injuries in the secondary), Seattle, Tampa and now Chicago. It is a large reason why the Cowboys are last in the League in scoring.
Both Chicago and Dallas appear mirror images of each other. Both have inconsistent quarterback play and both are trying to find an offensive identity. They both have excellent defences, Dallas seemingly having fixed their problems, with Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne plugging the secondary, and it helps that the defensive line, led by DeMarcus Ware, is providing constant pressure.
One of the keys to this game will be Ware against Chicago’s offensive line. Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler doesn’t follow the usual Bears trend on Monday nights – he’s won four of his five starts in front of the lights and tossed 11 touchdowns to three interceptions.
The fact that the Cowboys defence have already seen decent No1 receivers this season – Hakeem Nicks and Vincent Jackson – means they won’t be too scared of Brandon Marshall, who is elite but frustrating in equal measure, as he has too many drops.
For Chicago’s attack to be effective, they need to run the ball. They have missed Matt Forte, who could return after an ankle injury, but he may not be at full fitness. Without him, the dynamic of the Bears attack has to change.
If Forte is ineffective, Cutler, who has to deal with more than his fare share of collapsing pockets and blown blocks, could be in trouble, as the line does not protect him long enough to complete the deep pass. Much like Chicago, Dallas has looked spotty in pass protection and in the interior run game – allowing six sacks up the gut isn’t good.
Tony Romo, who has also had to deal with offensive line issues over the years, is masking over Dallas’s offensive line problems and is being much more careful with the ball than in the past. Since 2009, he has tossed 29 interceptions to Cutler’s 52, despite throwing a similar number of passes (Romo’s 1,393 to Cutler’s 1,394).
Twelve of the 22 games between these two clubs have been decided by 10 points or less. Seven of those 12 were decided by less than a touchdown and four were decided with a score in the final five minutes of the game.
BETDAQ have the Cowboys as 3.5-point favourites, which is fair. Dallas, being America’s team and the hype that surrounds them, will be overbet as usual. In theory, they should be no more than 1.5-point jollies. I’d still take them to cover, somewhat tentatively it has to be said.
The points total is interesting. Given their penchant for tough defence and porous offensive line play, it is set at a lowly 41.5 points.
Points have been at a premium in the prime-time games with the Thursday/Sunday/Monday trio’s combined totals eclipsing the overs mark three times, while seven contests have gone under the Vegas line and one was on the line. That trend will change soon (although Vegas linemakers know that bettors are an optimistic bunch and will usually see more action on the overs).
What is unquestionable, is that both attacks have decent receivers and while the Cowboys have only twice totalled more than 21 points against Chicago in their last eight clashes in Dallas, I have a hunch that this could go in advance of 41 points, with a field goal opening the scoring.
For John Arnette’s views on the big game, don’t forget to check out betdaqnfl.com.
Suggestions:
Back – Any other Scoring Play (than a touchdown)
Lay – Chicago +3.5
Back – Over 41.5 points
Twitter: @simonmilham
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