MATCH OF THE DAQ previews the opening game of the World Cup – it’s BRAZIL v CROATIA kicking off at 9pm tonight. The waiting is finally over – let the carnival begin in Brazil.
Brazil v Croatia
World Cup, Arena Corinthians, Sao Paulo
9pm, LIVE ITV
HEAD TO HEAD RECORD
(Max last 10 only)
Jun 2006 World Cup Brazil 1 – 0 Croatia
Aug 2005 International Croatia 1 – 1 Brazil
PREVIEW
It is of course the hosts prerogative to kick off the World Cup – and when it comes to Brazil and their heritage on the biggest stage of all – Brazil v Anyone would be captivating – but this opener against Croatia looks particularly juicy.
The BETDAQ market not only points to a win tonight for Phil Scolari’s men – but also for them to be lifting the trophy itself on Sunday 13th July. Brazil are 4.1 favourites on BETDAQ in the outright market.
It’s not being favourites that is likely to put the pressure on Brazil team but much more the expectation of the home fans and the weight of the nation.
The stats are with them though. No team from outside South America has ever won a World Cup held in the Americas – and there have been seven of them.
Since its inception in 1930, just eight different countries have won the World Cup. And since 1962, there have only been four ‘first time’ winners: England in 1966, Argentina in 1978, France in 1998 and Spain in 2010.
And finally, most pertinently perhaps, in 19 World Cups, the hosts have either won (most recently France in 1998) – or finished second or third – on 11 occasions.
The most positive team news for Brazil tonight is that their superstar Neymar has recovered from a training ground knock that left an entire nation holding its breath and is likely to start.
For Croatia it’s not so good news. They will be without their most potent forward, Mario Mandzukic, who is suspended following his red card in the play-off game against Iceland in November.
The odds look far too tilted in favour of Brazil based purely on recent form – but that’s understandable given the occasion. If you are predicting a huge upset, a Croatia win, it would be the first time EVER that the host nation loses their opening World Cup game.
The opening games tend to be tight affairs no matter what the line-up. Eight of the last 12 openers have produced one goal or less. Under 2.5 goals on BETDAQ is trading at around 1.85.
BETDAQ have 0% Commission on all Correct Score Markets so that definitely tempts us in on the opener.
1-0 and 2-0 to Brazil are the first bets of the tournament at around 6 and 5.6 respectively.
RECOMMENDATION: (1-10 points per bet)
3 points BRAZIL to beat CROATIA 1-0 at around 6 on BETDAQ
3 points BRAZIL to beat CROATIA 2-0 at around 5.6 on BETDAQ
Wednesday: -10.00 points
JUNE RETURN TO DATE: -5.80 points
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