New England Patriots (9-2, 7-4 ATS) @ Green Bay Packers (8-3, 6-4-1 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Green Bay -3 (57.5)
Significant Injuries
New England: G Dan Connolly (questionable– ankle), DE Dominique Easley (questionable– knee), OT Cameron Fleming (questionable– ankle), DE Chandler Jones (questionable– hip), WR Brandon LaFell (questionable– shoulder), RB Shane Vereen (questionable– ankle)
Green Bay: CB Jarrett Bush (questionable– groin), LB Nick Perry (questionable– shoulder)
Recent Trends
New England is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record
New England is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 14 points
New England is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games
Green Bay is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 home games
Green Bay is 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning record
The road team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
The OVER is 4-1 in New England’s last 5 road games
The OVER is 4-1 in New England’s last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record
The OVER is 5-0 in Green Bay’s last 5 home games
The OVER is 7-1 in Green Bay’s last 8 games overall
Three reasons to back New England
1. With 7 consecutive wins against a grueling schedule, the Patriots have established themselves as the class of the AFC and they appear to be the best team in the entire NFL. Here’s a bit a sports-betting advice you can take with you throughout your life: anytime you have the opportunity to back the world’s best team as an underdog, you should probably do so. Six of New England’s past 7 wins have come by 15 points or more and they’ve covered in 6 consecutive games against teams with winning records.
2. Tom Brady has been on fire in recent weeks and the Patriots now lead the league in points scored, producing 32.5 per game. They shouldn’t have any trouble lighting up the mediocre Green Bay defense, a unit that ranks 23rd in total yards allowed and 30th against the run. The Packers need some freak occurrences– i.e. turnovers, injuries, etc.– to have any chance in this matchup.
3. Green Bay has a one-dimensional offense that can be controlled by a quality defense, as demonstrated by Minnesota last week, Detroit in Week 3, and Seattle in Week 1. This New England defense, which ranks in the top-half of the league in both yards allowed and points allowed and is especially good in the secondary, certainly qualifies. The Pats faced Denver and Indianapolis– two top-3 offenses– in back-to-back games (Weeks 9 and 11) and held them to 21 and 20 points respectively. They won those two games by 44 combined points.
Three reasons to back Green Bay
1. The Patriots have played week lately, it’s true, but the Packers are pretty good themselves and they’ve been absolutely dominant at Lambeau Field this season, compiling a perfect 5-0 record and winning each of their past four games by 21 points or more. The opportunity to back them on their home field as just a 3-point favorite should not be missed, as it doesn’t come around often.
2. Aaron Rodgers is probably the frontrunner for MVP right now, and with good reason: he’s playing the best football of his career and the Packers have scored an astounding 188 points in their last 4 home games. The middling New England defense will be nothing more than a speed bump for Rodgers and Co.
3. The Patriots just aren’t the same team when they leave the friendly confines of Gillette Stadium, as they’ve covered just 5 times in their last 16 road games. Considering that Green Bay has been the NFL’s best home team this season, a New England upset here seems improbable. The Pats have surrendered 20 points or more in 4 of their 5 road games this year and both of their losses have come away from home.
Prediction
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
