New England Patriots (0-1, 0-1 ATS) @ Minnesota Vikings (1-0, 1-0 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: New England -5.5 (48.5)
Significant Injuries
New England: LB Jamie Collins (questionable– thigh), C Ryan Wendell (questionable– knee), DT Christopher Jones (questionable– ankle), DE Michael Buchanan (questionable– ankle)
Minnesota: DT Sharrif Floyd (questionable– shoulder), CB Xavier Rhodes (questionable– groin), LB Brandon Watts (out– knee), Adrian Peterson (out– suspension)
Recent Trends
New England is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games
Minnesota is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games
Minnesota is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 14 points
The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
The OVER is 4-1 in New England’s last 5 games following a loss
The OVER is 7-2 in Minnesota’s last 9 home games
Three reasons to back New England
1. The Patriots have an elite quarterback– Tom Brady– who will be facing a Minnesota defense that ranked 31st against the pass last season. Opportunities will be plentiful for Brady, who has built a career on taking advantage of the opportunities he’s given.
2. Adrian Peterson’s absence will be a major factor in this game. Peterson is the NFL’s best running back and his mere presence affects the way defenses defend Minnesota. Without Peterson quarterback Matt Cassel will have to shoulder the offensive burden, an arrangement that has mostly turned out badly over the course of Cassel’s career.
3. New England was markedly better than Minnesota on both sides of the ball last season and there’s no reason to think that won’t remain true this year. It’s Brady vs. Cassel and Bill Belichick vs. Mike Zimmer. Need I say more?
Three reasons to back Minnesota
1. The Patriots are badly overvalued, as they showed last week when they were favored on the road in Miami but were soundly beaten. As a matter of fact, they’ve been consistently overvalued on the road lately, which is why they’ve covered just once in their last 8 road games. They should not be a 5.5-point favorite in this situation.
2. The New England defense failed to stop a limited Miami offense last week, and on Sunday they’ll be facing a Minnesota offense that has explosive potential even without Peterson. Cordarrelle Patterson is a game-breaker who will be given every opportunity to shine against the vulnerable Patriots defense.
3. Matt Cassel has shown that he’s a competent player and he should know exactly how to attack a Belichick defense after practicing against them for years. Ryan Tannehill made it look easy last week, so we can expect Cassel to move the Minnesota offense up and down the field on Sunday.
Prediction
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