New Orleans Saints (4-7, 4-7 ATS) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4, 5-6 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Pittsburgh -4 (54.5)
Significant Injuries
New Orleans: LB Kyle Knox (out– hand), RB Khiry Robinson (out– forearm)
Pittsburgh: OT Marcus Gilbert (questionable– ankle), LB Ryan Shazier (questionable– ankle), DT Steve McLendon (out– shoulder), CB Cortez Allen (out- thumb)
Recent Trends
New Orleans is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a Monday night game
New Orleans os 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss
New Orleans is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games
Pittsburgh is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a bye week
Pittsburgh is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games
Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing record
The OVER is 4-1 in New Orleans’ last 5 road games
The OVER is 4-1 in New Orleans’ last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record
The OVER is 5-0 in Pittsburgh’s last 5 home games
Three reasons to back New Orleans
1. The Saints are a great “buy low” candidate this week, as public opinion of them is at a low point after three consecutive home losses. But those losses all came against quality opposition (Cincinnati, San Francisco, Baltimore) and two of the games were competitive, one-score affairs (one went to overtime). They’re getting a generous 4 points here against a Pittsburgh team that squeaked by Tennessee in their last game and lost to the lowly New York Jets the week prior. The value is there.
2. New Orleans has one of the NFL’s best offenses, a unit that ranks 2nd in total yards per game (433.6), 3rd in pass yards per game (308.8), and 7th in points scored (26.2). This week they’re facing a mediocre Pittsburgh defense that ranks 20th in points allowed and 17th against the pass. This is a great matchup for Drew Brees and the Saints.
3. The Steelers have been overvalued all season and they generally struggle against sub-.500 teams, covering just once in their last 5 opportunities. The Saints are a veteran team in a desperate situation and their strength is the passing game, while Pittsburgh’s primary weakness is defending the pass. Throw in the 4-point number, and a New Orleans bet is the only sensible play.
Three reasons to back Pittsburgh
1. The Steelers have won four of their past 5 games and are coming off a bye, while the Saints are a sinking ship, losing three straight at home to fall to 4-7. Plus, this game is in Pittsburgh, where the Steelers haven’t lost since September and where the playing surface is less than ideal for the wide open, pass-first New Orleans offense. The home team is the right play here, don’t let the 4-point number put you off.
2. The Ben Roethlisberger-led Steelers offense ranks 5th in total yards per game and is clicking on all cylinders right now, as they’ve averaged 32.8 points per game over their past 5 contests. They should encounter little resistance from the dreadful New Orleans defense, a unit that ranks 27th in yards allowed and has surrendered 88 combined points in the team’s current 3-game losing streak.
3. After a well-timed bye week the Pittsburgh defense is healthier than its been since the beginning of the season, as veteran stalwarts Ike Taylor and Troy Polamalu make their return to the lineup on Sunday. The Saints have been uncharacteristically inconsistent on offense this year, producing 30 points or more just once in their past 6 games, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Pittsburgh defense effectively shut down the New Orleans attack, just as Cincinnati was able to do 2 weeks ago.
Prediction
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