New York Giants (3-8, 4-7 ATS) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-10, 2-8-1 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: New York -3 (45)
Significant Injuries
New York: DE Mathias Kiwanuka (questionable– knee), OT Justin Pugh (questionable– quadricep), DT Cullen Jenkins (out– calf), G Adam Snyder (out– knee), LB Jacquain Williams (out– concussion)
Jacksonville: LB Jeremiah George (questionable– ankle), LB LaRoy Reynolds (questionable– neck)
Recent Trends
New York is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing record
New York is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games
New York is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall
Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
Jacksonville is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record
The OVER is 4-1 in New York’s last 5 road games
The OVER is 4-1 in Jacksonville’s last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record
The UNDER is 5-2 in Jacksonville’s last 7 games overall
The OVER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back New York
1. The Giants may be having a disappointing season but they’re a competitive team that nearly beat division-leading Dallas last week. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are indisputably the NFL’s worst team: they’re 1-10, they’ve covered just twice all season, and they get blown out nearly every week, ranking last in point differential (-144) by a wide margin. Back the better team. This isn’t rocket science.
2. Jacksonville offense is genuinely difficult to watch for anyone who enjoys good football. Led by a bumbling rookie quarterback who leads the league in interceptions despite not making his first start until Week 4, the Jags rank dead last in points scored, producing a feeble 14.6 per game. They are not to be trusted under any circumstance.
3. New York ranks in the top-half of the league in both total offense and pass yards per game, as Eli Manning is obviously growing more and more comfortable with 1st-year coordinator Ben McAdoo’s scheme. Manning should have a monster game this week against a Jacksonville defense that has surrendered more points this season (27.7 ppg) than all but one team leaguewide.
Three reasons to back Jacksonville
1. The Jags have played fairly well at home lately, beating Cleveland 24-6 and losing competitive games to Pittsburgh and Miami in their last 3 appearances at Everbank Field. The Giants, meanwhile, have lost 6 straight games and have covered just once in their last 5 road games.
2. The Jacksonville defense has steadily improved over the course of the season and they’re currently playing their best football, as they held the #1-ranked Indianapolis offense to just 6 first-half points last week. They should be able to build on their recent success against the pedestrian New York offense, a unit that is averaging just 21.2 points per game.
3. The Giants are overvalued here– they’ve lost 6 straight games yet they’re a road favorite, becoming just the 6th 3-8 team since 1978 to be favored on the road. Of course, this is par for the course for the 2013 New York Giants, a team that has been steadily overvalued despite proving their (lack of) worth on a weekly basis. Their 3-point loss to Dallas last week marked the first time they’ve covered since Week 5.
Prediction
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