New York Jets (2-8, 2-7-1 ATS) @ Buffalo Bills (5-5, 4-6 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Buffalo -2.5 (42)
Significant Injuries
New York: None
Buffalo: CB Ron Brooks (questionable– groin), RB Fred Jackson (questionable– groin), DE Jarius Wynn (out– knee)
Recent Trends
New York is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. AFC opponents
New York is 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a win
Buffalo is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating fewer than 250 total yards in their previous game
Buffalo is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. AFC opponents
Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall
The OVER is 5-2 in New York’s last 7 games vs. AFC opponents
The OVER is 6-0 in Buffalo’s last 6 Monday night games
The UNDER is 8-2 in Buffalo’s last 10 games overall
The OVER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back New York
1. The Jets are in a great position to pull the upset here: they beat Pittsburgh in their last game, they’re coming off a bye, and they’re as healthy as any team in the league. The Bills, meanwhile, have lost two straight games and have covered just once in their last 5 outings. These teams are moving in opposite directions.
2. New York ranks 7th in total defense and 3rd against the run, and this week they’ll face a Buffalo offense that is decidedly non-threatening. The Bills rank 24th in total offense and have scored 17 points or fewer in 3 of their past 4 games.
3. Only two teams average more rush yards per game than the Jets this season (140.8), and over their past two games the Bills have surrendered 252 combined rushing yards and over 5 yards per carry. The means the Jets will be able to do what they want to do offensively, which is going to put the pedestrian Buffalo offense in “catch-up mode”.
Three reasons to back Buffalo
1. The Bills are a contending team that desperately needs a win to stay relevant in the AFC playoff race, while the Jets are a 2-8 disaster whose players have been making offseason plans for a couple of weeks now. Plus, these teams met less than a month ago and it wasn’t even competitive, with Buffalo cruising to a 43-23 win.
2. The Jets have one of the NFL’s worst offenses, a unit that averages fewer points per game (17.4) than all but two teams leaguewide. The Bills, meanwhile, have a defense that ranks in the top-10 in every major statistical category. It’s going to be a real struggle for the New York offense.
3. Buffalo has morphed into a pass-first team after the injuries to tailbacks C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson and the ascension of Kyle Orton to starting quarterback, and the obvious weakness of the New York defense is the secondary. When these teams met in Week 8 Orton threw 4 touchdown passes, and there’s no reason to think he won’t have the same type of success this week. This is a great matchup for the Buffalo offense.
Prediction
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