You can feel it in the air, can’t you? After a long, tedious offseason filled with talk of deflated footballs and legal issues, it’s now time to sit back and let the 2015 NFL season wash over us.
The fun begins in a few hours, when the newly-reinstated Tom Brady leads the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots against Big Ben and the Steelers. New England is a 7-point favorite at BETDAQ and the total is 51.5, but why stop there? The Daq is currently offering 15 different markets on the game, so if you’re feeling lucky and want to start the season with a bang (Brandon Bolden to score the first touchdown at 9.8, anyone?), there’s nothing stopping you.
As for me, I think I’ll enjoy tonight’s game as a spectator. Most people seem to be of the opinion that the Patriots will really pour it on in a defiant response to the NFL’s mishandling of the whole Deflategate situation, but I have real concerns about how the rebuilt New England secondary will hold up against a Pittsburgh passing attack that produced over 300 yards per game last season, ranking second in the league. Over 51.5 is a bet that makes a lot of sense, though betting the Over in Week 1 games, when the play is often sloppy as offenses try to find a rhythm, is always a crapshoot.
I’m not so wishy-washy about all of this week’s games, however. Here are a few that I’d recommend:
Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans (Hou -1, 40.5)
The Texans should be pretty stout on defense, especially in the front seven, but their offense has serious disaster potential. Star tailback Arian Foster will miss the first few games with a groin injury, quarterback Brian Hoyer in on his fourth team in five years and has been a backup throughout most of his career, and the receiving corps is frighteningly thin behind DeAndre Hopkins. The Chiefs, meanwhile, return all 11 starters from a defense that finished 7th in the NFL in yards allowed last year, and the offense will be getting a much-needed jolt of explosiveness with the arrival of Jeremy Maclin, a big-play wideout with plenty of experience in Andy Reid’s system, having previously played for him in Philadelphia. Look for the Houston offense to sputter around while the Chiefs hit the ground running. Recommendation: Kansas City ML at 2.02
New Orleans Saints @ Arizona Cardinals (Ari -2.5, 48.5)
Bruce Arians has done a great job since taking over in Arizona and his Cardinals could have made some serious noise last year had it not been for some horrible injury luck at the quarterback position. That being said, I expect the Cardinals to backslide this season, and I think they’re going to have their hands full on Sunday against the Saints. The defense lost some talent up front that’s going to be tough to replace– nose tackle Dan Williams, in particular– and the secondary was more hype than substance last season, as they allowed more passing yards than all but three teams leaguewide. The Saints led the NFL in total offense in 2014, and while Jimmy Graham will be missed, I think they’ll be just fine on that side of the ball once again (as long as Drew Brees and Sean Payton are together in New Orleans, I’ll be singing that same tune, and so should you). I can’t say the same about the Cardinals, who just couldn’t run the ball at all last year and should have trouble in that area again. That means it’ll fall on 35-year old Carson Palmer, a man coming off major knee surgery who looked decidedly tentative in the preseason. While nobody would ever confuse the New Orleans defense with the ’85 Bears, I just can’t picture the Palmer-led Arizona offense outscoring Brees and the Saints this week. Recommendation: New Orleans +2.5 at 1.99
Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos (Den -4, 48.5)
Those who are discounting Denver as a serious contender are making a mistake, I believe. This is a team that ranked in the top-5 in both total offense and total defense in 2014, and if you think Peyton Manning is washed-up and no longer “elite”, well, I’d advise you to at least wait a few weeks before acting on that assumption. Manning was banged-up towards the end of last season and clearly wasn’t himself, but he’ll be fresh and ready to go this week against Baltimore, and you can be sure that he’s well aware of all the “washed-up” talk. I fully expect to see a typical Peyton Manning Clinic on Sunday, with the respected Baltimore defense playing the part of hapless victim. And the matchup is even more one-sided on the other side of the ball, where the fierce Denver defense will face a Ravens offense that will feel somewhat defanged now that Torrey Smith and Dennis Pitta are no longer part of the equation. Plus, new Denver coach Gary Kubiak was the offensive coordinator in Baltimore last season, so I’m sure he has a few ideas about how to defend Joe Flacco. All signs point to a comfortable win for the home team. Recommendation: Denver -4 at 1.87
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (Dal -6, 51.5)
Dallas exceeded expectations in 2014 thanks to a better-than-expected defense and an offense that turned to the running game as its primary staple, with tailback DeMarco Murray leading the NFL in rushing behind a mammoth offensive line. Murray is in Philadelphia now, but most expect the Dallas offense to roll right along without him despite the underwhelming history of his replacements, Joseph Randle and Darren McFadden. Color me unconvinced. I do expect the Cowboys to rack up plenty of yards and points in 2015, but I think they’ll revert back to what they were for so many years prior to last season: an offense that is entirely reliant on the play of its quarterback, in this case Tony Romo. And while Romo can be great at times, “reliability” has never been one of his primary attributes. He’ll be able to make some things happen against a Giants defense that struggled last season, but don’t be surprised if an ill-timed turnover or two keeps the G-Men hanging around. And the other side of the ball could present serious problems for the home team as well, with Eli Manning seemingly primed for a huge year now that he’s surrounded by a full complement of weapons and the Dallas secondary, which finished 26th against the pass in 2014, projecting as a major weakness once again. This one should be a shootout and I like the Giants to keep it close, if not win outright. Recommendation: New York +6 at 1.93
Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons (Phi -3, 55)
The first of two Monday night games features the Philadelphia Eagles, a team that was talked about ad nauseam throughout the offseason, going on the road to face the Atlanta Falcons, a team that seemingly nobody outside of Atlanta has paid any attention to over the past six months. Chip Kelly’s overhaul of the Eagles roster is now complete, and though he’s been getting a lot of credit from media types lately, it remains to be seen whether he actually improved the team. The oft-injured Sam Bradford is the new starting quarterback in Philadelphia, and he’ll be surrounded by a receiving corps that is decidedly underwhelming. I mean, aside from Jordan Matthews, you have… what exactly? A rookie? Riley Cooper? Miles Austin? I’m just not sure that’s going to add up to a functional passing offense, and I don’t care how good Sam Bradford looked in his preseason cameo, because that’s all it was– a cameo. We really have no idea what we’re going to get from Bradford and the Philly offense. When it comes to the Atlanta offense, though, we can make some definitive statements: they have an outstanding quarterback, a receiving corps that is among the NFL’s best, and a passing attack that can objectively be considered “elite”. That passing attack will be facing an Eagles defense that allowed the second-most pass yards in the league last season, so if you’re planning on backing Philadelphia this week, you may want to cover your eyes when Atlanta has the ball– it ain’t gonna be pretty. I’m all over the home ‘dog here. Recommendation: Atlanta +3 at 1.86
NEW !!!
You can now follow BETDAQ updates on Google+
For further details – CLICK HERE
£20 FREE BET
