NFL WEEK 11: We’re past the midpoint of the 2015 NFL season, and in some ways things are more of a mystery now than they were two months ago. What do you make of Green Bay’s sudden decline, for instance? Are the Vikings really the best team in the NFC North, a prospect which seemed unthinkable four weeks ago? How about the Denver Broncos, who hold a 3-game lead in the AFC West yet would only be a neutral-field favorite over about six teams in the league right now– could they possibly tumble out of the playoffs after starting 7-0? Does Peyton Manning have one more trick up his sleeve, or is he as finished as he appeared to be in last week’s embarrassing outing, when he was benched in the same game that he broke the NFL’s all-time passing yards mark? And we haven’t even mentioned the league’s two most dysfunctional, upside-down divisions– the NFC East and the AFC South, the latter of which will be in the spotlight tonight as the Tennessee Titans travel to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars.
Jacksonville has been installed as a 3-point favorite at BETDAQ, and the Jags in the role of favorite is a rare occurrence indeed– as a matter of fact, it’s only the fourth time in the last 58 games that it’s happened, a depressing testament to years of futility. The Jags are now 3-6 after a miraculous win over Baltimore last week that featured a Ravens penalty on the final play to set up a game-winning, 52-yard field goal (on an untimed down, no less), while the Titans are 2-7, having split the two games they’ve played since head coach Ken Whisenhunt was fired. Whisenhunt’s replacement, interim coach Mike Mularkey, was Jacksonville’s head man back in 2012 but was dismissed after a single season in owner Shad Khan’s first major move following his purchase of the team. Mularkey probably feels like he was treated shabbily by the Jaguars organization and he’d surely like to get his revenge tonight, on his 54th birthday. For what it’s worth, I like his chances, though I hope I’m wrong, as I’ll be attending the game with my son and rooting for the home team.
We split our four games last week, not quite the “slump-busting” result I was hoping for, so the YTD record sits at a mediocre 20-20. Here are this week’s selections:
Indianapolis Colts @ Atlanta Falcons (Atl -5, 47.5)
The Colts will turn to veteran Matt Hasselbeck at quarterback now that Andrew Luck has been sidelined for a few weeks, and Hasselbeck performed admirably when he was pressed into duty earlier this season. Make no mistake, though– Andrew Luck’s right arm is the engine that makes this Indianapolis offense go, and if you take Luck out of the equation you’re left with a very limited, pedestrian unit. And considering the Colts have a defense that ranks 28th in the league in yards allowed and has surrendered 20 points or more in eight of nine games, I’m just not sure how many wins they’re going to be able to pick up over the next month. This week they travel to Atlanta to face a Falcons team that badly needs a victory, having dropped three of their last four games after winning their first five. The Falcons are coming off a bye and they have a dynamic offense that ranks 5th in the NFL in both total yards per game and pass yards per game, so the porous Indy defense will certainly have its hands full on Sunday. That will put the pressure on the Hasselbeck-led Colts offense to keep pace score-for-score, a predicament which would be very different from Hasselbeck’s previous two starts this season, which came against the offensively-challenged Jaguars and Texans. Frankly, I just don’t believe the Colts are geared for this type of game right now. Not enough firepower. Recommendation: Atlanta -5 at 1.96
Washington Redskins @ Carolina Panthers (Car -7.5, 45)
I’ve become the butt of the joke amongst some of my friends for my perceived bias against the undefeated Carolina Panthers. While it’s true that Cam Newton and Co. have cost me some money this season, I’ve genuinely tried to look at things on a week-by-week basis, attempting to set aside both the fact that I was wrong about Carolina heading into the year and that I’ve lost on them several times already. In other words, I’ve guarded against fading the Panthers just to prove I was “right”, while also making sure that I don’t avoid betting against them simply because they’ve already cost me some money (I know, I spend far too much time thinking about this stuff. Pity my wife.). ALL THAT BEING SAID… I’m backing the ‘Skins this week. Ha! No, really, it’s not without good reason– this Washington team has quietly come alive over the past few weeks, winning two of their past three games to pull within a half-game of the lead in the NFC East. Kirk Cousins was spectacular in last week’s 47-14 blowout of the New Orleans Saints, completing 20 of 25 passes for 324 yards and 4 touchdowns. This comes just two weeks after his 317-yard, 3-touchdown performance in a stirring comeback win over Tampa Bay, which of course led to this indelible moment. The Redskins are a team on the rise, and it’s time to take them seriously if you haven’t already. When it comes to the Panthers, lately their defense has slipped a bit– they now rank 14th in the NFL against the run and 11th against the pass– but the offense has improved, with Cam Newton firmly establishing himself as an MVP candidate. It’s still a fairly one-dimensional attack, though– they rank 28th in pass yards per game, after all– so the ‘Skins certainly know what’s coming. I’m sure Newton will do his thing, but I genuinely do not believe the Panthers will be able to produce enough offense to cover a 7.5-point number against an ascendant Washington team. As a matter of fact, I think an outright upset is a realistic possibility. Of course, I’m biased. Recommendation: Washington +7.5 at 1.91
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (Sea -13, 40)
It was unusual seeing the vaunted Seahawks defense allow 39 points to Arizona last week, and I’d bet every last dollar in my bank account that it isn’t going to happen again this Sunday. A lot of that has to do with the opposition, as the Blaine Gabbert-led San Francisco offense is far less capable of inflicting damage than Carson Palmer and the Cardinals. Gabbert was praised by many for his performance in a 17-16 win over Atlanta two weeks ago, when he was 15/25 for 185 yards, with 2 TDs and 2 INTs. If those stats don’t strike you as earth-shattering, they shouldn’t. It’s just that compared to what we’ve seen of Gabbert previously, when he was a contact-averse turnover machine in Jacksonville, completing 15 passes for 185 yards feels like a minor miracle. But the Niners are still banged-up in the backfield so Gabbert will have to shoulder the load in Seattle this week, a situation that I think could end very, very badly for the visitors. One thing that was evident in watching the Seahawks last week was that their passion and pride are still very much intact– this is still the Legion of Boom, accept no substitutes. Arizona was simply good enough to beat them, and the 49ers simply are not. And remember, the Niners are, without a doubt, Seattle’s most hated rival. Rest assured that if Pete Carroll can pour it on, he most certainly will. Considering that San Francisco ranks 27th in the league in total defense (not to mention the presence of Gabbert), I think there’s a pretty good chance that this turns into a “pour it on” type of game. Recommendation: Seattle -13 at 1.91
Cincinnati Bengals @ Arizona Cardinals (Ari -4.5, 48)
Was last week the long-awaited breaking point for the Bengals? We’ve seen it time and again from Marvin Lewis’s crew– world-beaters in October, but by the time December rolls around they’re stuck in the mud, waiting for the inevitable first-round playoff exit. They were a double-digit favorite over Houston last week but lost an ugly 10-6 battle, and now we’re left to wonder whether that was the beginning of the end. I’m not sure I’m willing to take it quite that far, but I do think Cincinnati is in real trouble on the road in Arizona this week. In case you haven’t noticed, the Cardinals have been the NFL’s best team outside of New England this season, ranking second to the Patriots in point differential (+117) while also ranking in the top-3 in both total offense and total defense, a claim not even the Pats can make. Carson Palmer is averaging nearly 300 pass yards per game, and the emergence of tailback Chris Johnson has given the offense some sorely-needed balance. The Bengals are good defensively but they’ve had trouble with prolific passing offenses, surrendering 362 yards to the likes of Joe Flacco and 262 to Ben Roethlisberger in his first game back from injury. I just can’t imagine the Bengals having a whole lot of success slowing down this high-powered Arizona attack, especially after watching the Cards go on the road and hang 39 on Seattle last week. That means the question is whether Andy Dalton will be able to have similar success against the rugged Arizona defense… I think I know the answer to that question. Recommendation: Arizona -4.5 at 1.92
2015 Record– 20-20
