A quarter of the 2015 NFL season is now in our rearview mirror and that means injuries are piling up around the league, none more prominent than Andrew Luck’s mysterious shoulder ailment which will reportedly sideline him for the second straight game when his Colts visit the Houston Texans tonight.
BETDAQ has now posted a HOU -4 market for the game in addition to the HOU -2.5 market that has been up there for the past couple of days; I was thinking that the 2.5 number was already reflective of the fact that Luck probably wasn’t going to play, but apparently the oddsmakers at the Daq (and elsewhere) felt the need to make a slight adjustment. Frankly, I think it’s probably a perfect move– I firmly like the Texans against the Matt Hasselbeck-led Colts at -2.5, but I feel significantly worse about it at -4 considering the sorry state of the Houston offense.
Week 5 is a little bit of a tough slate in my opinion, one that features several games in which bad teams are favored and several others that feature points spreads approaching double-digits. Nevertheless, we’ve managed to wade through the muck and come up with these four gems*:
*Buyer beware: not all gems are created equal. Some weeks they are, though!!
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens (Bal -6.5, 43)
I think I’m pretty realistic about what the Browns are. They’ve won once in four games, they have a mediocre offense and a dreadful defense– a unit that currently ranks last in the NFL in yards allowed. I know they haven’t won an AFC North opener since 2004, and I know that their opponent this week– Baltimore– is a perennial playoff contender that is desperate for a win and playing at home. I know all these things, and yet I feel good about Cleveland as a 6.5-point road ‘dog this week. That’s because all the things laid out above– while valid– don’t tell the full story. Truth is, the Cleveland offense has been pretty darn good over the past couple of weeks, with Josh McCown throwing for nearly 700 combined yards in narrow losses to Oakland and San Diego. The Baltimore defense, meanwhile, has been torn to shreds by such luminaries as Derek Carr (351 yards) and Andy Dalton (383 yards) already this season. And the Ravens haven’t been particularly good on offense, either, scoring 24 points or fewer in three of their four games and often seeming to have no playmakers in the passing game outside of Steve Smith, who just happens to be listed as doubtful for this week’s game with a back injury. I won’t go so far as to predict the upset– though I certainly don’t think it’s outside the realm of possibility– but this is too many points to give the Browns in this situation. Recommendation: Cleveland +6.5 at 1.92
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB -2.5, 42)
This one caught my eye when I first looked at the Week 5 lines because I just couldn’t believe that this Tampa team was favored over ANYBODY, even the Jags. The more I’ve looked at this game and rolled it around in my mind, though, the more convinced I’ve become that Tampa is the right side. For all their faults, the Bucs have been really good this season in one area: the secondary. With an excellent pair of corners in Alterraun Verner and Johnthan Banks and safeties who fit Lovie Smith’s scheme, Tampa ranks 3rd in the NFL against the pass, surrendering just 186 yards per game through the air. That doesn’t bode well for a Jacksonville offense that has become more reliant on the passing game under first-year offensive coordinator Greg Olson. And saying “more reliant on the passing game” is probably an understatement, as the Jags have effectively become a pass-first group, with Blake Bortles attempting 156 passes in just four games (50 last week alone). Problem is, it isn’t working. Jacksonville is averaging a league-worst 15.5 points per game and Bortles still has a deadly habit of throwing into coverage. They’ll be attacking the strength of the Tampa defense on Sunday- the strength of the entire team, really– and I don’t like their chances. When the Bucs are on offense they’ll look to exploit a porous Jaguars secondary, though I admit to being a little nervous about the prospect of Tampa rookie QB Jameis Winston chucking it all over the yard. Those reservations aside, I think the home team is the right play here. Recommendation: Tampa -2.5 at 1.81
Washington Redskins @ Atlanta Falcons (Atl -7.5, 47.5)
The Falcons have really opened some eyes with their play thus far in 2015, transitioning from “may be better than we thought” to “legitimate contender” in just four games. After pasting Houston last Sunday they’re now riding a wave of public enthusiasm and have been installed as a whopping 7.5-point favorite over Washington this week. Have we reached a good “sell high” point with this team? I mean, it’s not like they’ve been beating up on Super Bowl contenders– the Eagles, the Giants, the Romo-less Cowboys, and the hapless Texans… is there a quality team in the bunch? And the struggles of the Atlanta defense have been glazed over thanks to the play of the offense, but make no mistake: the Falcons are not good on the defensive side of the ball. They rank 28th in total yards allowed, 30th against the pass, and they’ve surrendered 20 points or more in every game this season. While the Washington offense certainly isn’t elite, it isn’t terrible, either: the Skins lead the league in rushing, they’ve topped 20 points in each of their past three games, and their quarterback, Kirk Cousins, seems to get more and more comfortable with each passing week. And the Washington defense is the unquestioned strength of the team, ranking 6th in yards allowed and 2nd against the run. I don’t expect them to totally shut down Matt Ryan and the high-powered Atlanta offense, but they should make it a fight. Recommendation: Washington +7.5 at 1.77
New England Patriots @ Dallas Cowboys (NE -8.5, 49.5)
The New England side here feels a bit like low-hanging fruit– indeed, the Patriots are a popular public play at sportsbooks around the world this week– but I just can’t help myself. Yes, I realize that 8.5 is a big number to swallow, especially when backing a road team. And yes, I realize that a good “buy low/sell high” argument could be made for Dallas in this situation, and that a Patriots defense that has been shaky against the run this year is at risk of being exposed by the formidable Cowboys o-line. Of course, this is where I remind you that Dallas really hasn’t been running the ball all that well since DeMarco Murray left town, and that the offense as a whole has looked every bit as neutered as we all imagined it would when Tony Romo and Dez Bryant went down. Brandon Weeden is a serviceable backup and he may be better than two or three starters in the league, but plunking down your hard-earned money on him in a spot like this– Patriots undefeated and coming off a bye, Tom Brady in the midst of his post-Deflategate F-U Tour– is not advisable. I mean, what do Dallas bettors have to go on here exactly, other than “that’s a lot of points”? And while 8.5 is indeed a lot of points and the “that’s a lot of points” argument sometimes pays off in a league as competitive as the NFL, I feel more comfortable basing my choices on logic that I deem sound. Will Belichick’s Patriots do everything in their power to win this game? Yes. Will they be comfortable/satisfied with a one-score (8 points or fewer) lead in the 4th quarter? Definitely not. Good enough for me… Recommendation: New England -8.5 at 1.93
2015 Record– 8-8
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