NFL PLAYOFFS: …And then there were four.
After a Divisional Round that certainly lived up to the hype, delivering both excitement and profits, we now turn our attention to a Championship Sunday that features four high-scoring teams who are all led by elite quarterbacks. Three of the four QBs playing this week already own Super Bowl rings, while the fourth, Atlanta’s Matt Ryan, is the odds-on favorite to win this season’s MVP award. So if you’re longing for a 10-7 defensive struggle you’re probably out of luck, but the rest of us can look forward to some aesthetically pleasing playoff football.
Both of Sunday’s championship games are rematches: the Patriots beat the Steelers 27-16 back in Week 7, while the Falcons edged the Packers 33-32 in a Week 8 thriller. Much has changed for all four teams, however, and there’s reason to believe that things might shake out differently the second time around. Here’s a closer look at both matchups:
Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons (Atl -4.5, 60)
Recommendation: Atlanta -4.5 at 1.87
Both of these teams have to be feeling great about themselves after last week, as the Falcons dominated an experienced Seattle team while Green Bay beat the top-seeded Cowboys in a nail-biting thriller. The Packers have now won 8 straight games and Aaron Rodgers is at the peak of his powers, throwing 24 touchdown passes and just one interception in his past 9 games.
He’ll be facing an Atlanta defense that, while vulnerable, has been playing better of late, surrendering just 19 points per game over their last five contests. The Falcons harassed Russell Wilson last week and really controlled the Seattle offense after the game’s opening drive, but Rodgers and the Packers are a different animal, and anyone who expects the Green Bay offense to get shut down this week is living in fantasyland.
That being said, Rodgers will likely be without top target Jordy Nelson again as the star wideout continues to recover from the cracked ribs he suffered in the team’s Wild Card win over New York. Much has been made of how the Green Bay receivers often struggle to get open— indeed, it seems as if Rodgers is always buying 4 or 5 seconds in the pocket and still having to fit the ball into impossibly tight windows— and that problem worsens anytime Nelson isn’t on the field. The Falcons have an excellent pass-rusher in Vic Beasley, so Rodgers’ escapability will be front and center once again and his “hero ball” tendencies will be on full display. Based on what we’ve seen lately that should work out just fine for the Pack, but Nelson’s status complicates things somewhat.
Of course, putting points on the board is only half the battle. Outscoring the Atlanta offensive machine is the ultimate goal here, and that’s a tall order for a team that ranked 31st in passing defense this season, as Green Bay did. Not only did the Falcons rank 5th in passing offense at 295 ypg, but they led the NFL in scoring by a wide margin, averaging an eye-popping 33.8 ppg. They’re especially good at home, where they’ve scored 30 points or more in 7 of 9 games this season and have never been held to fewer than 24. Last week they absolutely shredded the fearsome Seattle defense, rolling up 422 yards and 36 points on a unit that had totally shut down the Detroit Lions the week prior. Ryan is the centerpiece, and All-Pro receiver Julio Jones adds an element of unstoppability to the mix. The Packers simply do not have anyone who can cover Jones, and if they try to overcompensate they risk being gashed by Atlanta’s underrated thunder-and-lightning rushing attack of Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman.
Bottom line: this is a tough spot for the Green Bay defense. Both defenses will have issues in this game, to be sure, but the prospect of this Packers D slowing down Ryan and the Falcons in the Georgia Dome borders on unimaginable. Watching the Green Bay/Dallas game last week, as Packers stalwarts like Nelson, Davante Adams, and safety Morgan Burnett were forced out of the game at various times with injuries (Adams being the only one who returned), I was struck by the feeling that this was it for the Pack: this was their Super Bowl, their high point. It was a great victory, yes, but now they go back on the road to face a hungry, rested team that happens to have the NFL’s best offense. It’s been a great run for Rodgers and Co. over the past few weeks, but I think the ride ends here. They’re outgunned, plain and simple.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots (NE -6, 50.5)
Recommendation: Pittsburgh +6 at 1.91
New England’s current 8-game winning streak has almost been too easy, hasn’t it? It seems as if the Pats have been on cruise control for the past two months, and this is despite losing Rob Gronkowski, a player whose absence had caused the offense significant headaches in the past. Tom Brady has been typically brilliant, the running game has been effective, and the defense ranked first in the NFL in points allowed, surrendering only 15.6 ppg. Only one of these past 8 wins has come by fewer than 7 points.
But is everything as simple as it seems? Are these Patriots really a dominant team? Is this defense really… any good at all?
Consider the last 8 quarterbacks the Pats have faced, in order, starting with the most recent: Brock Osweiler, Matt Moore, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Trevor Siemian, Joe Flacco, Jared Goff, Ryan Fitzpatrick (again), Colin Kaepernick. With the exception of Flacco, who threw for 324 yards in a 30-23 Baltimore loss, the Patriots have faced nothing but bottom-tier QBs since allowing 348 passing yards to Russell Wilson in a Week 10 loss to Seattle. What was regarded as a below-average secondary in the beginning of the season has simply not been exposed lately due to the level of competition.
Well, that all changes on Sunday. This won’t be the Steelers team that lost to these Patriots 27-16 back in Week 7, because Ben Roethlisberger didn’t play in that game. Instead it was Landry Jones who threw for 281 yards, as the New England secondary’s inability to handle Antonio Brown was not impacted by Big Ben’s absence. Roethlisberger will be out there this week, however, and he’s been playing great football throughout Pittsburgh’s current 9-game winning streak. The Steelers ranked 5th in the NFL in passing offense this season, mostly on the strength of the Roethlisberger-to-Brown connection, but the scary thing for opposing defenses has to be the fact that the passing attack, potent as it is, has now taken a backseat and is somewhat of a complimentary piece in this Pittsburgh offense.
Le’Veon Bell is the man leading the charge these days. The 4th-year back from Michigan State was possibly the best player in the NFL, regardless of position, over the second half of the season, rushing for an incredible 1,172 yards in his last 8 games. Two weeks ago he set a new Steelers playoff record with 167 rushing yards in a win over Miami, and he promptly broke the record again last week with a 170-yard performance against Kansas City. Opposing defenses have simply had no answer for Bell, and the Pittsburgh offense is now as balanced and devastating as any unit in the league. The results speak for themselves, as last week’s hard-fought 18-16 win in Kansas City was the first time in the past 9 games that the Steelers haven’t reached the 24-point mark.
The Pittsburgh defense has also played well lately, especially in the front seven, but that’s not where this game will be won. Tom Brady will do what he does and the Patriots will be able to move the ball, but I have serious doubts— serious doubts— as to whether they’ll be able to slow down the Steelers. It’s always tough to bet against Belichick and Brady in a situation like this, but I truly believe the value is with the underdog here.
