DIVISIONAL ROUND: After a Wildcard Weekend that saw all four favorites produce double-digit victories, we now arrive at the main course: the Divisional Round, generally regarded as the best football weekend of the year. And last week’s predictability has given us the best possible matchups, as the top four seeds in each conference will now meet with a Championship Sunday spot on the line.
In looking at the four games, one stands out for both the outlandishness of the point spread and the seeming inevitability of the outcome. I don’t know anyone who follows the NFL in any capacity who believes that Houston is remotely capable of pulling off the upset in New England on Saturday night, and the 15-point number is the largest line we’ve seen for a playoff game in 18 years. The Pats shut out the Texans 27-0 back in December, and that was before a certain quarterback with a penchant for manicures and Brazilian supermodels had made his season debut. The Brady-led Patriots Offensive Machine is back to humming on all cylinders now, while the Houston offense is still pretty much what it has been all season: a steaming pile of garbage. The Texans have a great defense, however, and that sure is a lot of points…
The other three games are more along the lines of what we traditionally expect from the Divisional Round: highly competitive matchups that feature the best teams the NFL has to offer. If you have plans for this weekend, cancel them. If your boss demands that you come into work, tell him you have dysentery. If your family attempts to monopolize your time, they don’t really love you. I have seen the promised land, and it looks very much like your living room couch. A barstool works as well. Make it happen.
Here are a few thoughts on what may transpire:
Best Bets
Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons (Atl -4.5, 51.5)
Recommendation: Atlanta -4.5 at 1.86
The Seahawks come into this game with the big reputation and championship pedigree, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that they’re attracting a lot of public action as a juicy 4.5-point ‘dog. The Falcons are ripe for the upset, the thinking goes, because their defense is soft and Matt Ryan has a history of wilting in big-game situations. Besides, these teams already met this season and the ‘Hawks came out on top after building a 17-3 halftime lead. Their defense looked as smothering as ever in a 26-6 demolition of Detroit last week, and Russell Wilson is the most cold-blooded playoff quarterback this side of Tom Brady. The wrong team is favored here, right?
That’s certainly one way to look at it, but it’s not a perspective I share. First of all, when these teams met back in Week 6 the game was in Seattle, and a missed pass interference call in the waning moments may have been the only thing that preserved the win for the Seahawks. The final score was 28-26, Atlanta outgained Seattle 362-333, and Matt Ryan finished with a statline of 27/42 for 335 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Falcons totally dominated the second half and surely left the field with the belief that they were the better team, a belief that was shared by many observers. Now they get a chance to prove it, and this time they’re at home and fresh off a bye.
And don’t give Seattle’s win over Detroit last week more weight than it deserves— the Lions limped into that game losers of three straight and their quarterback was battling an injury to his throwing hand. The Falcons, with an offense that led the league with 33.8 points per game, are a different animal altogether. Ryan was able to slice up the vaunted Seattle secondary in Week 6, and this time the Legion of Boom will be without founding member Earl Thomas after the All-Pro safety broke his leg in a late-season win over Carolina. Nobody has been able to stop the high-flying Falcons on the fast track and temperature-controlled environment of the Georgia Dome— they’ve scored 24 points or more in every home game this season and have hit the 30-point mark six times— and the Seahawks have been vulnerable since losing Thomas, surrendering 38 points to Green Bay in Week 14, 34 to Arizona in Week 16, and 23 to the lowly San Francisco 49ers in Week 17. If we’re operating in objective reality, reputations aside, it’s clear that the Atlanta offense is well-positioned to do some damage here.
So the question becomes whether the Seattle offense will be able to keep pace. The Falcons are shaky on defense, there’s no doubt about it, and the ‘Hawks had to be encouraged by the sight of Thomas Rawls ripping through the Detroit defense last week. Make no mistake, though— the Seahawks offense has been missing something this season. They ranked 25th in rushing, a figure that would’ve been unfathomable in the Marshawn Lynch era, and have mostly relied on the right arm and playmaking ability of Russell Wilson for their production. But Wilson isn’t surrounded with the type of weaponry that Ryan has at his disposal (few are), and the Seattle offense is not built for shootouts. They average a mere 22.1 points per game, after all— nobody is confusing them with the New Orleans Saints. Let’s just call it like it is: the Seahawks are outgunned in this matchup, and their defense isn’t going to be able to save the day this time around.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs (KC -1.5, 44.5)
Recommendation: Pittsburgh +1.5 at 1.93
Is there a scarier team than the Pittsburgh Steelers right now? They’ve won eight straight games, their offense is both balanced and explosive, their defensive front seven suddenly looks elite, and they have Super Bowl-winning leadership in place. I mean, what’s not to like?
There are two things, I guess, that could bother you about these Steelers: their secondary is not particularly good, and Ben Roethlisberger was last seen in a walking boot after sustaining a foot injury on his final pass attempt in last Sunday’s win over Miami. As of this writing we don’t yet know the full extent of the injury, but Roethlisberger’s history of playing through pain speaks for itself. There is virtually no chance of him not being out there on Sunday, and based on what we’ve seen in the past he’ll probably appear totally unaffected by the ailment. I guarantee you the Chiefs defensive coaches are preparing for Roethlisberger at his best, and I’m evaluating this game under the same assumption.
As for the secondary, it isn’t all that bad— they were middle-of-the-pack in most of the passing defense stats, and they steadily improved after a midseason rough patch. Moreover, Kansas City simply doesn’t have the type of offense that is well-equipped to exploit deficiencies in the secondary. The Chiefs employ a conservative, dink-and-dunk passing attack that is led by the consummate Checkdown Charlie, Alex Smith. They averaged just 234 passing yards per game this season and were not able to penetrate the Pittsburgh defense in a 43-14 loss back in Week 4. About that game— I don’t think we should lean on it too much in our evaluation, as both teams have evolved over the past three months, but it is worth mentioning that the Steelers absolutely blew the Chiefs off the field that day, taking a 36-0 lead into the 4th quarter. Roethlisberger finished the day with five touchdown passes.
While I seriously doubt that Big Ben will throw for 5 TDs again, he probably won’t have to with a guy like Le’Veon Bell in the backfield. Bell was the best running back in the NFL over the second half of the season, rushing for 1,002 yards in his past seven games, including 167 against Miami last week, a new Steelers postseason record. He’ll be facing a Kansas City defense that had problems defending the run all year, allowing 121.1 rushing yards per game (26th in NFL) and 4.4 yards per carry. It is Bell, and not Roethlisberger or his prolific go-to receiver Antonio Brown, who presents the biggest problem for the Chiefs here. But when you roll it all together— Bell, the passing attack, a defense on the rise—it’s a very formidable package indeed, and is probably more than the Chiefs can handle. I know January games at Arrowhead Stadium are no picnic, but the Steelers are starting to have the look of a Super Bowl team and I don’t think they’ll be denied on Sunday.
Other Games
Houston Texans @ New England Patriots (NE -15, 44.5)
Sure, Houston pulling the upset here is inconceivable. It’s not going to happen. That being said, giving more than two touchdowns to a team that boasts the NFL’s top-ranked defense doesn’t feel quite right, does it? The Pats last faced a top-5 defense in Week 15, when they managed just 16 points and 177 passing yards in a win over Denver. It won’t be all that shocking if the offense is similarly bogged down this week.
And that’s where the Case for Houston begins and ends. The Brock Osweiler-led offense seems utterly incapable of finding the end zone at times, and just saying aloud the words “Osweiler versus Brady in a playoff game at Gillette Stadium” is like a shot of cold water to the face of anyone considering a Texans bet. But with a number like 15, the backdoor will be wide open throughout the second half and Patriots bettors won’t be able to rest until the final whistle sounds.
Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys (Dal -4.5, 52)
Dallas has been the best team in the NFC all season, but there’s plenty of reason to doubt them here. You’d have to start with rookie quarterback Dak Prescott, a guy who’s done a great job of managing games but is still totally green and isn’t able to challenge defenses downfield. The Packers are good against the run, so Prescott will have to make some plays with his arm if the Cowboys are to win this one. Do you trust him to make those plays?
His counterpart on Sunday won’t have any problems with throwing the football: Aaron Rodgers is on an absolute tear over the past few weeks and he’s brought the whole team with him, as the Pack have now won seven straight games and counting. They’re a different team than the one that endured a two-touchdown loss at the hands of these Cowboys in October, but they’re still a flawed team, one that struggles to run the ball and has major issues in the secondary. This will be a fascinating game to watch, and almost no outcome would surprise me.
