NFL PLAYOFFS: Only four teams remain in the race to Super Bowl LIX, and Sunday’s conference championship games have the potential to be classics: we’ve got rivalries, star quarterbacks, icy weather, the new guard, the old guard, coaches who were on the proverbial “hot seat” as recently as this season, and coaches who are first-ballot locks in Canton. We’ve got it all. Legacies on the line. Football immortality within reach. And one more Sunday for us to soak in some great football before the two-week Super Bowl hype fest begins.
Here’s a look at both games:
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles Sunday 20:00 GMT
BETDAQ Line: Philadelphia -6 (47.5)
Without a doubt, the Washington Commanders are the biggest surprise among the four teams left standing in these playoffs. They’re young, relatively inexperienced, and they weren’t statistically dominant this season the way that teams like Detroit and Baltimore were. But the Commies dispatched the Lions last week, hanging 45 points in Ford Field and forcing 4 turnovers on defense, and rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels is on fire right now, lighting up opposing defenses with both his arm and his legs. Daniels leads all players in postseason passing yards and he’s been remarkably efficient, with 4 touchdowns, zero turnovers, and only 1 sack taken. Plus, he’s already seen this Philly defense twice this season and it didn’t go too well for the Eagles the second time, as Daniels rolled up 339 total yards and 5 TDs in a 36-33 Week 16 Washington win.
Eagles QB Jalen Hurts had to exit that game early due to injury, however, so the Washington defense was up against the Kenny Pickett-led Philly offense… not quite the same challenge that they’ll be facing this week. Hurts may be a little banged up after tweaking his left knee in last week’s win over Los Angeles, but he’ll be out there, and his brand of efficient, versatile, low-turnover quarterback play has proven very difficult to beat in high-pressure playoff environments. Hurts won’t be Washington’s biggest concern, anyway — that would be Saquon Barkley, the man who has distinguished himself as the best running back in the NFL this season and has been the main focal point of this Eagles attack. Barkley exploded for 232 total yards and 2 TDs in last week’s win over LA and he torched this Washington D to the tune of 150 yards and a pair of TDs in Week 16, and if the Eagles are going to win this one, it’s going to be on the back of no. 26. I have difficulty envisioning a Commanders defense that struggled against the run all season suddenly figuring out a way to bottle up Barkley and slow this Philly attack, and I expect the Eagles to put up more points here than they have in either of their playoff games thus far. Slowing Jayden Daniels and the red-hot Washington offense is another matter, however. Points won’t be a problem in this one, and turnovers are likely to be the deciding factor. Prediction: Philadelphia 31, Washington 27
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs Sunday 23:30 GMT
BETDAQ Line: Kansas City -2 (48.5)
With apologies to Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, who suffered an absolute heartbreaker when Mark Andrews couldn’t hold on to the ball last week, some of us have been waiting for this one all season. These teams have seemed destined to meet again, with Kansas City churning out close, workmanlike victories every week while the Bills have nearly matched them in wins and have exceeded them in style points. Wins are what count, however, and that’s why this game will be held at Arrowhead Stadium, where the Chiefs have lost vanishingly few meaningful games in the Reid/Mahomes era. If you’re a Bills supporter this week, you know what you’re up against — the 2-time defending Super Bowl champion with the generation’s best quarterback still in the midst of his prime, future Hall of Famers at tight end and wide receiver, and a defense that allowed the third-fewest points in the NFL this season. Winning this game as the road team will be a tall order.
That said, it’s undeniable that this Kansas City offense isn’t what it used to be. Though still kept afloat by the brilliance of Patrick Mahomes, it’s a group that lacks explosiveness on the perimeter and doesn’t run the ball particularly well, either. They finished the season ranked 17th in yards per game, right between Dallas and Denver, and they’ve produced 23 points or fewer in 4 of their past 6 games, including last week’s win over Houston, when they managed a mere 212 total yards. The Bills have improved defensively as the season has progressed, and when these teams met back in Week 11 they were able to hold Mahomes below 200 passing yards and force him into 2 interceptions in a 30-21 Buffalo win. That was the regular season, though, and this is the postseason, where Mahomes has reigned supreme and eliminated these Bills the last three times they’ve met. Not only have the Bills not been able to beat the Chiefs in the playoffs, they’ve had trouble winning on the road in general, losing their last 7 postseason road games. However, there is one X factor to consider, a name that hasn’t yet been mentioned here: Josh Allen. The frontrunner for league MVP, Allen is at the peak of his powers, and he’s been playing with the look, feel, and attitude of a man on a mission. This is a career-defining game for him, and just as we saw him rise to the occasion in pressure-packed moments against Baltimore last week, I expect him to shine bright in this one. “Everybody eats” has been the motto for Allen and the Bills offense this season, and the grand feast is on Sunday — the opportunity for them to finally slay the dragon and change the narrative. Allen won’t be denied. I believe that. Prediction: Buffalo 28, Kansas City 20
