NFL PLAYOFFS: For my money, the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs is the pinnacle of the football season: the best teams and best players at the defining point of a long, grueling journey, so close and yet so far away from the sport’s ultimate stage, Super Bowl LIX.
We have four terrific games this weekend, but the Sunday nighter in Buffalo stands above the rest, as the two leading MVP candidates will go toe-to-toe in what are expected to be frigid, snowy conditions. The Ravens have become a popular pick to win the AFC over the past few weeks and have moved to a 1-point favorite in this game after beginning the week as a 1-point ‘dog, and it will be interesting to see whether Lamar Jackson can finally exorcise his playoff demons at the expense of the man who will likely beat him out for the sport’s top individual honor this season. With the way Josh Allen has been playing, however, it’s difficult to imagine him not willing his team to victory on their home field in a spot like this, isn’t it? It’s going to be a fascinating game.
Here are my thoughts on that one, and the other three as well. Buckle up and enjoy a gem of a weekend, folks:
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs- Saturday 21:30 GMT
BETDAQ Line: Kansas City -8.5 (41.5)
These teams met just a couple of weeks ago, back in Week 16, and the Chiefs did what they’ve done in just about every game this season: they played solid defense and Patrick Mahomes was good enough to keep the opposition at arm’s length and guide KC to another close victory. The one-score win thing has become downright uncanny, as an NFL record 10 of Kansas City’s wins this season have come by 8 points or less. They’ll be facing an excellent Texans defense that can get after the quarterback, so I’m expecting a lot of dinking and dunking out of the Chiefs offense in this game, and I do think Mahomes & Co. will be held in check. The problem for Houston is on the other side of the ball, as their once-mighty offense has come unraveled due to injuries and poor offensive line play. C.J. Stroud was shockingly bad over the second half of the season, and he and the offense were awful for half of last week’s win over the Chargers before finally catching fire after the defense had kept them in the game. I don’t envision Stroud having much success against a stout Chiefs defense that finished 3rd in the league in points allowed this season. This should be an ugly, plodding game with predictable results. Turnovers are Houston’s only hope. Prediction: Kansas City 20, Houston 13
Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions- Sunday 01:00 GMT
BETDAQ Line: Detroit -8.5 (55.5)
They’ve got something brewing in Washington, as Jayden Daniels is the most exciting quarterback to come into the league in a few years and he’s provided the Commie offense with some much-needed juice. And after struggling for much of the season the defense has quietly improved, too, limiting 4 of the team’s past 6 opponents to 20 points or fewer, including Tampa Bay in last week’s 23-20 Wild Card win. But the good news pretty much ends there, because this week the Commanders will head to Ford Field to face the NFL’s best team, the Detroit Lions, a group that has won 14 of their past 15 games and has done so in style, with eight of those wins coming by double-digits and four by 20 points or more. They would’ve been involved in even more blowouts had they not suffered critical injuries to their defense which weakened that side of the ball, but they’re getting healthier now and sure looked pretty dominant on defense in their last game, a winner-take-all showdown for the division against Minnesota in which the Vikings managed just 9 points and 262 total yards. The real star of the show in Detroit, however, is Ben Johnson’s offense, a unit that led the league in points scored this season and was top-5 in total yards, passing yards, and rushing yards. It’s a balanced, lethal attack led by Jared Goff and the terminally underrated Amon-Ra St. Brown, but it’s the thunder and lightning (or shall I say Sonic and Knuckles) combo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery that should really be able to do damage against a soft Washington front that ranked 30th in rush yards allowed this season. It’s been a fun year in D.C., but the ride ends here. Prediction: Detroit 38, Washington 20
Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles- Sunday 20:00 GMT
BETDAQ Line: Philadelphia -6 (43.5)
These teams seem to be quietly drifting in opposite directions, as the Rams are finally healthy on offense and playing their best football of the season, while the Eagles, though still winning, have an offense that seems to be mired in the muck most weeks amid stories of infighting and the constant questioning of head coach Nick Sirianni’s competence (have you ever seen a winning coach take so much heat? I digress…). Of course, when these teams met back in Week 12 there was one man who kept the Philly offense moving and moving consistently, as Saquon Barkley (255 yds rushing, 47 yds receiving) would outgain the entire LA offense in one of the finest performances of his career. The Rams D has been playing much better in the front seven over the past few weeks, however, and you can be sure that Barkley will be a marked man in this one after running all over them previously. I believe that if the Eagles are going to win here, it’s going to be Jalen Hurts that carries them to victory, and it’s frankly difficult to have much confidence in that happening given what we’ve seen from Hurts lately. In last week’s Wild Card win over Green Bay, for instance, he managed just 131 passing yards as the Philly offense sputtered for much of the night, fortunate to be bailed out by the defense. And that defense will put up a good fight against these Rams, no doubt, but with the Stafford-to-Puka connection going strong and Kyren Williams running as well as he is, I don’t envision the Rams offense being shut down entirely. As a matter of fact, I have a hunch they’ll do just enough to pull off the upset here. Prediction: Los Angeles 23, Philadelphia 20
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills- Sunday 23:30 GMT
BETDAQ Line: Baltimore -1 (51.5)
With apologies to the 2-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs, who sit at 15-2 and are probably right to feel disrespected, these are the two best teams in the AFC and everyone knows it. The Ravens seem to have caught fire at the right time and have been steamrolling the opposition lately, winning five straight games by 14 points or more. They put one on the Bills back in Week 4, too, as Derrick Henry ran for 199 yards and Lamar Jackson accounted for 3 TDs in a 35-10 laugher. This will be a different type of game, however — the Bills are a playoff-tested team that had won 10 of 11 before resting their starters in a Week 18 loss to New England, and they totally dismantled an excellent Denver defense last week in a 31-7 win. Unlike Jackson, there is no “book” on how to slow down Josh Allen: he’s the best player in the league right now, a singular force that will beat a defense from the pocket before totally demoralizing them with his legs. We know the story with Lamar: as great as he is, his limitations as a pocket passer have always surfaced in the playoffs, and those limitations remain. Make no mistake, though, the Ravens are the best rushing team in the league and they will try to lean on that here in the freezing, snowy weather. I’m betting that Sean McDermott will load the box and dare Jackson to air it out, especially when you consider that Baltimore is likely to be without top receiver Zay Flowers, who is listed as Doubtful with a knee injury. This will undoubtedly lead to some big plays in the passing game for the Ravens, and I’m expecting that, but I don’t think it will be enough to overcome this hungry, veteran Buffalo team playing on their home field. Prediction: Buffalo 31, Baltimore 27
