NFL PLAYOFFS: For my money, the Divisional Round is the best football weekend of the year. Four games across two days, top seeds in both conferences in action, and each team just two wins away from the sport’s ultimate stage, the Super Bowl. These are the types of games where reputations and legacies are made. Josh Allen may be the best player in the NFL today, but if he never makes a Super Bowl history will not judge him as such. Then there are guys like Sam Darnold, whose career narrative and future opportunities largely depend on what happens this week and next. These are the games we wait all season for.
Followers of this column know that we had a good season, but we took it on the chin a bit with last week’s Wild Card matchups. Let’s see if we can recalibrate and make a little cash this weekend:
Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos (DEN -1, 45.5)
The weekend’s most compelling matchup might just be Saturday’s first game, as the great Josh Allen will take his team to Denver to face the 1-seed Broncos. The Bills are dealing with injuries on both sides of the ball, but particularly on offense, as they enter this game with only three healthy receivers. That means Allen may be forced to use his legs a bit more this week, and the Denver D has had issues with running quarterbacks this season, with two recent examples being Marcus Mariota in Week 13 (10 car. for 55 yds. in a 27-26 Denver win) and Trevor Lawrence in Week 16, which happens to be Denver’s last loss. Allen is rumored to have been dealing with various ailments lately but he said on Wednesday that he feels better than he has in a couple of weeks, so I’m expecting him to be in full Superman mode on Sunday. He’ll have to be, because the Broncos are exceptionally tough at home, losing only once this season, and their defense can really get after the passer, recording a league-leading 68 sacks this season. The pass-happy Denver offense will have challenges of its own, however, against a Bills defense that allows the fewest pass yards per game in the NFL. Prediction: Buffalo 24, Denver 21
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (SEA -7, 45.5)
Bitter NFC West rivals meet in Seattle on Saturday night for a matchup that harkens back to those great postseason wars of the 2010s, when it was Seattle’s Legion of Boom against those tough Jim Harbaugh-coached 49ers teams. This time around the top-seeded Seahawks will look to capitalize on a 14-3 season that includes a current 7-game winning streak, with the most recent of those victories coming in Week 18 against these Niners. In that game the Seattle defense totally smothered the Brock Purdy-led San Fran offense, holding them to just 3 points and 173 total yards. It was a dominant performance, and it’s the primary reason why the line is so big here — 7 points feels like a lot in a game like this, but if you saw that Week 18 game, the idea of the Niners having any real sustained success against this Seattle D feels a bit farfetched. That said, this is a high-pressure spot for Seattle QB Sam Darnold, who faceplanted in his playoff debut last year and will be facing a veteran San Francisco D coaching by one of the top coordinators in the game, Robert Saleh. I believe Saleh will have an effective plan for slowing down Darnold and the ‘Hawks, just as he did in Week 18, when Seattle scored just one touchdown (setup by a short field) and 13 points. To win the game, though, the 49ers defense may need to score some points themselves. Prediction: Seattle 20, San Francisco 16
Houston Texans @ New England Patriots (NE -3.5, 40.5)
Watching the mistake-prone Houston offense fumble around last week (and I mean that quite literally- C.J. Stroud fumbled 5 times, losing two), you wonder how they could ever go on the road and beat a team as good as these Patriots. Then, you watch them play defense, and… wow. They are absolute man-eaters. Did you see the beating they put on Aaron Rodgers last week, a quarterback who gets rid of the ball quicker than anyone in the NFL? The Steelers offense was utterly helpless, putting up a mere 6 points and 175 total yards, and that’s pretty much been par for the course for any team facing these Texans over the past two months. Houston hasn’t lost since the first week of November, a stretch of 10 games, thanks to a defense that leads the NFL in yards allowed, ranks second in points allowed (17.4 ppg) and has no discernable weakness, ranking in the top-5 against both the run and the pass. The Drake Maye-led Patriots offense has taken the NFL by storm this season and Maye himself is a leading MVP candidate, but they have not seen anything like this Houston defense, and on what is going to be a bitterly cold and perhaps snowy night in Foxboro, this is going to be a baptism by fire (ice?) for Maye. If Stroud and the Houston offense can protect the ball, I like the Texans to win this one outright. Defense wins championships, and they have a championship-level defense. Prediction: Houston 17, New England 10
Los Angeles Rams @ Chicago Bears (LA -4, 48.5)
Despite a 7-2 record at Soldier Field this season and an offense that put up 30 points or more in 5 of those wins, the Bears find themselves a home underdog here against a Rams team that has the look of a Super Bowl contender. Looking at the matchups in this game, it’s easy to understand why. The Bears have been winning in spite of their defense, not because of it, as only three teams leaguewide surrendered more yards than Chicago this season. They are particularly bad against the run, allowing 5 yards per carry and 134.5 yards per game, and LA has one of the most effective RB tandems in the league with Kyren Williams and Blake Corum, who combined for 2,000 rushing yards on the season while each averaging better than 4.8 yards per attempt. And then there’s the Rams passing attack, the strength of the team, as the Stafford-to-Nacua connection has been nearly impossible for opponents to stop. Stafford is having an MVP-caliber season, and the addition of Davante Adams opposite Nacua has transformed the offense into the NFL’s most explosive unit, reminiscent of the Greatest Show on Turf-era Rams. Against a defense like Chicago’s, the Rams have options, and I expect a steady diet of Williams/Corum in this game with plenty of dagger shots to Nacua and Adams thrown in. I know they’re plucky, I know they’re playing at home, and I know they’re coming off a great come-from-behind win last week, but I just don’t think these Bears have what it takes to keep pace with a great LA team. Prediction: Los Angeles 34, Chicago 20
