NFL PLAYOFFS: It’s that time of year again, the best time of year for NFL fans: it’s playoff time. With only the top seed in each conference now receiving a first round bye, 12 teams will square off on what should be a glorious Wildcard Weekend, starting with the Rams/Panthers showdown on Saturday afternoon and finishing up with Houston’s Monday night visit to Pittsburgh for what should be a good old-fashioned slobberknocker.
Your humble author will be on premises for Jacksonville’s first home playoff game in nearly a decade, as the Jags will look to keep the good times rolling against the ever-dangerous Josh Allen and the Bills. Then there’s Packers/Bears, Niners/Eagles, Chargers/Patriots… like I said, it’s going to be great. Here are a few thoughts on all six games:
Los Angeles Rams @ Carolina Panthers (LA -10.5, 45.5)
The Rams have been one of the NFC’s top teams all season, but they open these playoffs on the road after Seattle clipped them in the division. Fortunately for them, they’ll be facing the postseason’s only sub-.500 team, the 8-9 Panthers, who squeaked into the playoffs despite losing their final two games and 3 of their past 4. All eyes will be on the explosive LA passing attack led by MVP candidate Matt Stafford and the elite WR tandem of Nacua and Adams, but it’s the running game that will give the Rams offense a distinct advantage here, as the Carolina defense ranks last in the NFL in run stop win rate (26.2%… h/t ESPN stats & info) while LA has a top-10 rushing attack that produces 4.6 yards per attempt. Look for Kyren Williams and Blake Corum to hollow out this Carolina defense while Stafford and the passing attack provide the kill shots. Prediction: Los Angeles 34, Carolina 17
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears (GB -1.5, 44.5)
It’s yet another chapter of this classic rivalry, and you get the feeling that Ben Johnson vs. Matt LeFleur may be a budding rivalry in its own right. The Packers closed the regular season with 4 straight defeats, one of which came against this Bears team in Week 16, and the loss of Micah Parsons to a torn ACL has been a crippling one for their defensive front seven. Don’t write them off here, though– Jordan Love should find considerable success against a Chicago defense that can’t rush the passer and ranks 29th in the NFL in total yards allowed, while his counterpart, Bears QB Caleb Williams, will be making his first career postseason start and can be erratic and unreliable at times. If it comes down to Williams vs. Love, I’m going with Love. And if it comes down to the Bears defense vs. the Packers defense, I’m going with the Green Bay D. Therefore… Prediction: Green Bay 24, Chicago 20
Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars (JAX -2, 51.5)
Don’t look now, but the Jags are as hot as any team in the league, winning 8 straight games and doing so in style, with six of the wins coming by 14 points or more. They’ve been rewarded with a home game, but I’m sure Jacksonville fans might’ve preferred a different matchup, as there’s nothing easy about Josh Allen and the Bills coming to town. Allen, the reigning MVP, is a one-man gang who can punish a defense with his arm, his legs, and his late-game moxie. He’s sure to put up plenty of yards and lead the Bills to some touchdowns against a Jacksonville D that is vulnerable in the secondary, but he’ll need to, because the Jags offense has been rolling, putting up 34 points or more in 4 of their past 5 games behind a balanced attack. The Buffalo defense has struggled mightily against the run, ranking 28th in rush yards allowed and surrendering an eye-popping 5.1 yards per carry, so Jacksonville will be able to stick to the script on offense, pounding the rock with Travis Etienne and Bhayshul Tuten to open things up for Trevor Lawrence and the passing attack. This should be a competitive, high-scoring game that comes down to the 4th quarter. Tough to go against the superior quarterback in a situation like that. Prediction: Buffalo 28, Jacksonville 27
San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles (PHI -6, 44)
This Eagles team has been in some dogfights this season, with 12 of their games decided by 7 points or fewer, and the reason for that is twofold: yes, they have an excellent defense that keeps them in most every game, and it’s also probably true that they’ve been facing a string of highly motivated opponents eager to take their best shot at the defending Super Bowl champ. But the other reason that Philly has been in so many close games is because the offense has been downright hard to watch at times, plodding along with very few explosive plays and a predictable, run-heavy script. The stats don’t lie: the Eagles were bottom 10 in the league both total yards and passing yards despite QB Jalen Hurts and their top skill position players (Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith) all enjoying good health and playing full seasons. They’ll have trouble putting up points against a good Niners D that ranks 5th in the league in points allowed (19.1 ppg), and San Fran has been playing well on the other side of the ball, too, averaging over 38 ppg in their past 4 wins and ranking 5th in pass yards per game. Going into Philly and pulling off the outright upset will be a tall task for these Niners, but I think they’ll keep it close. Prediction: Philadelphia 21, San Francisco 17
Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots (NE -3.5, 46)
It’s been a dream season for Drake Maye and the Pats, as they reclaimed the division from Buffalo and seem to be set for another long run of success only a few short years after the end of the Belichick/Brady dynasty. They open the postseason as a home favorite against a Chargers team that lost back-to-back games to close out the regular season, but I think this is a sneaky tough matchup for the Patriots, and an upset is a distinct possibility here. The Chargers are a well-coached, veteran team that has played very well over the second half of the season, winning 7 of 8 before a 3-point loss to Houston in Week 17 (the loss to Denver in Week 18, when all the key players were held out, doesn’t really count). Moreover, they have a defense that matches up well with this New England offense, as they stay in 2-high safety most of the time, which has been a look that Drake Maye, who likes to force the ball downfield, has struggled with at times (Pats offense leads the NFL in air yards per pass attempt, LA defense allows 3rd-fewest air yards per attempt). On the other side of the ball, Justin Herbert will have opportunities over the middle of the field against a Pats defense that feasted on a weak schedule over the second half of the season and has had issues with slot receivers on occasion… LA has two guys who can really hurt you from the slot in Ladd McConkey and the veteran Keenan Allen. Upset alert here. Prediction: Los Angeles 27, New England 21
Houston Texans @ Pittsburgh Steelers (HOU -3, 37.5)
Pittsburgh earned a spot in the postseason with an instant classic Week 18 win over hated rival Baltimore, and Steelers coaches and players were exuberant in their postgame celebrations. I think Steelers fans should hang on to that image, because it’s as good as it’s going to get this season. As a reward for their AFC North title, the Steelers drew the Houston Texans, possibly the toughest matchup of all the non-division winners. The Texans have a terrifying defense that led the NFL in yards allowed, surrendering a mere 277 per game, and ranked 2nd in points allowed (17.4 ppg). After a slow start to the season DeMeco Ryans’ crew picked it up and steamrolled through the second half with 9 straight wins, holding the opposition to 20 points or fewer in 7 of those victories. Given the dink-and-dunk nature of the Pittsburgh offense, I don’t see how they will threaten this excellent Houston D in any significant way, and a final statline that reads something like 220 total yards and 10 points seems likely. While I do expect the Steelers D to put up a good fight against an inconsistent Texans offense, it won’t be enough. The Houston defense will win the day. Prediction: Houston 16, Pittsburgh 10
