NFL WEEK 1: The NFL has returned with a bang, as two terrific games kicked off this Week 1 and set the stage for Sunday: 13 games, only three with spreads of 6 points or higher, every team with renewed hope, every team with some new looks and new players. It’s Christmas morning in September for sickos like us, with ten straight hours of football, Red Zone on one screen, a couple of specific games on the others, the sweat, the exhilaration, the cool beverages, the live bets, the fantasy teams, the delicious finger foods, the text chains, the wife’s annoyance, the improbable outcomes, the stunning revelations… it’s all here, once again, and we are the richer for it. (metaphorically richer for sure… hopefully literally richer as well, eh?)
But anyway, back to the two games that have already happened: the Thursday night opener saw the Kansas City Chiefs begin their run for three straight Super Bowls with a 27-20 home win over a Baltimore team that looks like it will be a contender once again. It was a serious sweat for Chiefs fans and bettors, and it appeared as though Lamar Jackson had found Isaiah Likely for a touchdown in the closing seconds that would’ve pulled the Ravens to within 1, and John Harbaugh was going to leave the offense on the field, go for the 2-point conversion and the win. The replay review, however, revealed that Likely’s toe was out of bounds by the slimmest of margins, preserving the 7-point KC victory. Aside from some truly ridiculous officiating that produced the most illegal formation penalties I can remember being called in a game, it was the perfect way to kick off the season, with Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson combining for 686 total yards and young players like Rashee Rice and Zay Flowers emerging as go-to guys. I don’t think anyone will be surprised if these teams meet again in January, but then again, it’s a long season ahead, with many twists and turns.
The Friday night game was also a thriller, as the Eagles held off the Packers 34-29 in Brazil thanks to three touchdowns from new arrival Saquon Barkley. The Philly backfield has long been a committee of above-average backs with their own unique strengths, but it sure looks like Barkley is going to be the workhorse this season as long as he stays healthy. So far, so good.
But really, we’ve just had a taste… the main course will be served on Sunday, and I’m ready for it (the dessert on Monday night — Aaron Rodgers and the Jets facing the defending NFC champion 49ers — won’t be too bad either). Here are my favorite games:
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Atlanta Falcons (ATL -3.5, 41.5)
Recommendation: Atlanta -3.5 at 1.97
It’s a new era in Atlanta, with Raheem Morris taking over as head coach and veteran Kirk Cousins as new starting quarterback. Those two had a nice little prize waiting for them in second year back Bijan Robinson, an explosive and versatile offensive weapon who will be featured early and often in new coordinator Zac Robinson’s attack. I expect the Falcons to be much better on offense now that they have a guy who can accurately deliver the ball downfield and create some space for Robinson — this will be a difficult matchup for a good Steelers defense. It will be strength vs. strength when Atlanta has the ball.
On the other side of the ball, however, Pittsburgh is in disarray. The offense was unwatchably bad last year, so Mike Tomlin brought in a new coordinator and two new quarterbacks, and the results through training camp and the preseason have been underwhelming, to say the least. They’re going with the aging Russell Wilson at QB, assuming he can shake off a nagging calf injury that has him carrying a “Questionable” injury designation, and while Wilson was a great player at one time, that time has clearly passed, and to me it looked like he had next-to-nothing left in the tank these last couple of years. As difficult as it is to imagine, I believe this Steelers offense has a chance to be even worse than last year’s version. This is a great opportunity for the Morris/Cousins era in Atlanta to start out with a feel-good W.
New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals (CIN -7.5, 40.5)
Recommendation: Cincinnati -7.5 at 1.93
First-year Patriots coach Jerod Mayo is stepping into a really difficult situation here, and while I’m sure Pats fans are hoping he’s some miracle worker akin to Demeco Ryans of the Texans, when I look at this New England team I don’t see the raw materials that Ryans had to work with last year in Houston, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. We can expect a conservative, run-first style from the Patriots this season, as there simply aren’t many playmakers on the perimeter and journeyman QB Jacoby Brissett, who will begin the season as the starter while rookie Drake Maye gets acclimated to NFL life, is your consummate “game manager” — a limited passer who is out there to make sure the offense is in the right play and to limit turnovers. It will be especially tough for Brissett this week because the Pats are down 2 starters on the offensive line and Cincinnati has one of the best defensive lines in the AFC. That Bengals D is surely licking their chops for this matchup.
The low total here suggests that oddsmakers expect the New England defense to hold Joe Burrow and the Bengals in check, but Burrow is fully healthy now, both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are expected to play, and the new RB tandem of Zack Moss/Chase Brown might be a sneaky upgrade over aging vet Joe Mixon. I’ll be surprised if Cincinnati doesn’t put at least 3 touchdowns on the board and win this one by double-digits.
Tennessee Titans @ Chicago Bears (CHI -3.5, 44.5)
Recommendation: Chicago -3.5 at 1.97
The Bears have totally revamped their offense, drafting quarterback Caleb Williams first overall, receiver Rome Odunze just a few picks later, and signing veterans like Keenan Allen and DeAndre Swift to join D.J. Moore in a group that suddenly seems to be overflowing with talent. The key will be Williams and how well he can manage it all, but given the high expectations he dealt with in his last couple of college seasons as well as his tremendous arm talent, I expect him to be relatively successful right out of the gate. And not only is immediate success not a given for quarterbacks taken with the top pick in the draft, in reality it’s close to the exact opposite: the last QB taken with the first overall pick to win his first start was David Carr in 2002, with the past 15 going an incredible 0-14-1 (1-14 ATS!!).
One reason I expect Williams to buck the trend has to do with his counterpart, Tennessee’s Will Levis, who seemed to regress over the late part of last season and will no longer have Derrick Henry occupying the attention of opposing defenses. The Bears were much better defensively at the end of last season than they were in the beginning, and they should be a tough unit this season under the defensive-minded Matt Eberflus. This Chicago team will face plenty of challenges and bumps in the road in 2024, but I think they have a great chance to start things on a high note with a win over a Titans team that is projected to finish last in the AFC South.
Dallas Cowboys @ Cleveland Browns (CLE -2.5, 40.5)
Recommendation: Dallas +2.5 at 1.99
The Browns were a great bet at home last year, winning and covering in all 7 games in which they were home favorites. That said, the offense as a whole was a disappointment, as high-priced QB Deshaun Watson has not been able to replicate the form that made him one of the most exciting young players in the NFL while in Houston. He’s clearly lost a step after playing in only 12 games over the last 3 seasons combined, and he has not seemed confident or comfortable in the pocket since arriving in Cleveland. On Sunday he’ll be facing a Dallas defense that led the NFL in pass rush win rate last season, and he’ll be doing so without starting left tackle Jedrick Willis, who is still nursing an injury that kept him out of training camp. And we cannot forget that the Browns’ best offensive player, running back Nick Chubb, will be sidelined for at least the first 5 weeks of the season after his gruesome leg injury a year ago.
The Dallas offense, meanwhile, is locked and loaded now that All-Pro receiver CeeDee Lamb is paid and happy. It’s a unit that led the NFL in scoring last season at 29.9 ppg, and they should be every bit as explosive as long as they can keep Dak Prescott upright and healthy. On that note, two rookie starters on the offensive line could prove to be a concern, especially against a defensive front like Cleveland’s, but the return of Ezekiel Elliott to the Dallas backfield gives the Cowboys one of the best blocking backs in the league once again, a player who is effectively an extra offensive lineman when in pass protection. Dallas simply has too much firepower for these Browns I think, regardless of where the game is played.
