NFL WEEK 1: Handicapping the first week of the NFL season is a lot like getting married for the first time: it’s a total crapshoot, and the excitement for getting started makes it so that any pains or frustrations that may arise in the future are but distant concerns when the adventure begins. And it can be quite an adventure, as any NFL enthusiast knows, but our task is to ensure that it’s a profitable adventure. In this way, it’s nothing at all like marriage…
It all gets rolling on Thursday night, when the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots look to start the season on a winning note against a playoff-tested Chiefs team that has high expectations for 2017. The Sunday highlights include an NFC East showdown in Washington between the Eagles and the Redskins, a battle of two rising contenders in Oakland and Tennessee, and a renewal of the Packers/Seahawks rivalry that has had a large role in shaping the NFC playoff picture over the past few years.
A Monday night double-header caps off the weekend, as the Saints and Vikings meet in what should be an intriguing game, while the Chargers— that’s the L.A. Chargers, mind you— look to begin the Los Angeles era with a win over AFC West rival Denver.
BETDAQ has it all covered, of course, so there’s nothing stopping us from making a little money while we bask in the warm glow of football’s return. Week 1 can be a little tricky and we’re bound to see a few surprises, but we’ve successfully tiptoed through the minefield before and there’s no reason we can’t do it again. On that note, here are my Week 1 selections:
ARIZONA CARDINALS @ DETROIT LIONS (Ari -1.5, 48)
Recommendation: Arizona ML at 1.81
The Cards endured a disappointing season in 2016, winning just 7 games after winning 13 the year before, but there’s reason to think that brighter days may be ahead. Veteran quarterback Carson Palmer is fully healthy once again after struggling with nagging injuries for much of 2016, and his pinpoint downfield passing will be complemented by workhorse running back David Johnson, who is coming off a monster season in which he ran for over 1,200 yards, scored 16 touchdowns, and caught 80 balls. This Arizona offense should be both balanced and explosive, and Sunday they’ll face a Detroit defense that couldn’t stop the run or pressure the quarterback last year. It’s a great opportunity for the Cards to get off to a fast start.
The Detroit offense will be led by Matt Stafford once again, but gone are the days when they had one of the league’s most explosive downfield passing attacks. Calvin Johnson is gone and he ain’t coming back, and while Golden Tate and Marvin Jones are quality receivers, they can’t fill Megatron’s shoes. The Lions rushing game was basically nonexistent last year, producing just 81.9 yards per contest, so if they’re going to move the ball, it’s Stafford who must do the heavy lifting. I’m not sure he’s up for the task against an Arizona defense that ranked second in the NFL in total yards allowed last season.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ L.A. RAMS (LA -4, 41.5)
Recommendation: LA -4 at 1.91
A new era begins for the Rams, as Sean McVay takes over for Jeff Fisher and tries to jumpstart an offense that finished last in the league in both yards per game and points scored in 2016. McVay is an offensive guy, having spent the last three years as Washington’s offensive coordinator, and he’s got some intriguing pieces to work with in 2015 Rookie of the Year Todd Gurley and newly-acquired big-play wideout Sammy Watkins. If young quarterback Jared Goff improves, the L.A. offense could really surprise some people.
They couldn’t ask for a much better Week 1 opponent than the defensively-challenged Colts, who allowed more yards last year than all but two teams leaguewide. The Colts will be without top corner Vontae Davis, which won’t help things, but the real story is the continued absence of star quarterback Andrew Luck, who still has not recovered from having his shoulder operated on nearly nine months ago. Luck is the engine that drives the Indianapolis offense, and the Colts are absolutely rudderless without him. Scott Tolzien will get the start against a good, young Rams defense, and 34-year old Frank Gore will lead the backfield. The potential for disaster is high, even against a Rams team that couldn’t get out of its own way last year.
CAROLINA PANTHERS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (Car -5, 48)
Recommendation: San Francisco +5 at 1.95
Expectations are at rock bottom for a 49ers team that only won two games last year, and there’s no doubt that first-year coach Kyle Shanahan has some serious work ahead in building the Niners back into a playoff contender. But I’m not sure they’ll be quite as bad this season as a lot of people seem to think— veteran quarterback Brian Hoyer had the best season of his career under Shanahan in Cleveland, and his new top wideout Pierre Garcon thrived under Shanahan’s watch in Washington. Meanwhile, the Niners still have a good o-line and running back Carlos Hyde, who averaged 4.6 yards per carry in 2016.
The defense must improve after totally collapsing last season, but there’s Pro Bowl talent at every level, so improvement is possible. Sunday they host a Carolina team whose quarterback, Cam Newton, attempted only two passes this preseason as he recovered from offseason shoulder surgery. Something tells me it may take Newton and the Panthers offense a couple of weeks before they find a rhythm, and the Carolina defense, once regarded as elite, finished 26th in points allowed last year. I have a feeling the Niners will keep this one close and possibly pull off the upset.
L.A. CHARGERS @ DENVER BRONCOS (Den -3.5, 43)
Recommendation: L.A. +3.5 at 1.9
The Chargers are a team to keep an eye on in 2017: Philip Rivers is still one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks, and he’ll have a full cupboard of weapons once again now that go-to receiver Keenan Allen has recovered from a devastating knee injury that cost him nearly all of last season. Tight end Hunter Henry and running back Melvin Gordon are young players on the rise, and the o-line should be better after the team spent big money on Pro Bowl tackle Russell Okung, who they stole from this week’s opponent, Denver.
The Broncos, meanwhile, feel like a fading team that will struggle mightily to match last year’s 9-7 record. The defense is solid but aging, and they just lost one of their leaders in the secondary in T.J. Ward. But the Broncos need the defense to sustain its high level of play, because the offense, which finished 27th in the league in yards per game last year, faces major questions once again. There’s talent at the skill positions, but Trevor Siemian is still the quarterback after an underwhelming training camp competition with Paxton Lynch, and it’s difficult to win when you have a substandard QB. Plus, the line is likely to take a step back after the aforementioned loss of Okung, and there are no difference-makers at the running back position. Monday night could mark the start of a long season in Denver.
