NFL WEEK 10: We’ve reached the midpoint of the NFL’s 18-week regular season and, though there’s still a lot of football left to be played, you get the sense that this might be a Changing of the Guard year, especially in the AFC, where not many would have predicted that the Patriots, Steelers, Colts, and Broncos would be the four division leaders at this point. Though Patrick Mahomes is probably the frontrunner for league MVP, the Chiefs are no longer the unquestioned power in the AFC, and Josh Allen and the Bills may never get their opportunity to reign atop the conference if the defense doesn’t improve.
The NFC certainly appears to be the stronger of the two conferences, but there’s no one dominant team, meaning the playoffs are going to be a bloodbath and the race for seeding and the ultra-important first-round bye will be intense over the next few weeks. It’s going to be fun…
Speaking of fun, it’s been fun season thus far for followers of this column, as we’ve endured just one losing week while compiling a 22-14 overall record on the picks. Let’s keep it rolling with these four:
New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB -2.5, 48.5)
Recommendation: New England +2.5 at 1.91
Perhaps no team in the league has been as surprising as the Patriots, a young group devoid of established stars who nobody was projecting as a playoff team but now sits at 7-2, alone atop the AFC East. It’s clear now, though 9 games, that this is no fluke: Drake Maye is an ascending young quarterback who is already establishing himself as a real difference-maker and a clear cut above the likes of C.J. Stroud, Trevor Lawrence, and Tua Tagovailoa, and the defense has been masterful under first-year coach Mike Vrabel, surrendering fewer than 300 total yards per game and ranking 5th in the NFL in points allowed (18.8 ppg). They’ll be tested here against a Bucs offense that has scored 23 points or more in 7 straight games, but the Pats have scored 23 or more in six straight themselves (all wins), and Maye is in line for a big game against a Tampa secondary that ranks 22nd against the pass and has been shredded by the likes of Sam Darnold (341 yds, 4 TDs) and Mac Jones (347 yds). The wrong team is favored here.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans (Jax -1, 37)
Recommendation: Houston moneyline (to win) at 1.95
Jacksonville snuck out of Vegas with a thrilling 1-point win last week, with Travis Etienne turning in a heroic performance and Trevor Lawrence doing just enough against the leaky Raiders defense. It won’t be nearly as easy against these Texans, though, as Lawrence knows well considering his struggles against his division rival over the years. The Jags did pull out a 17-10 win over these Texans back in Week 3, forcing 3 turnovers and limiting Houstin to 271 total yards, but the Jacksonville defense has fallen victim to injuries and poor safety play since then, and they’ve had tremendous difficulty slowing down opposing offenses in recent weeks, surrendering 11 passing TDs in the past three games, two of which were double-digit losses. Houston will have Davis Mills at QB in place of the injured C.J. Stroud this week, but I’m not sure how much of a downgrade that will be considering Stroud’s struggles this year, and 2 of Mills’ 5 career wins as a starter have come against Jacksonville, so he won’t be intimidated. The deciding factor in this game, though, will be the Houston defense, a dominant unit that leads the NFL in both yards allowed and points allowed and is going to smother the banged-up Jaguars offense. Gimme the Texans in a low-scoring slugfest.
Detroit Lions @ Washington Commanders (DET -8, 49)
Recommendation: Detroit -8 at 1.91
Full disclosure: I lost betting on the Lions last week, as I expected them to easily handle the visiting Vikings, which obviously didn’t happen. But we’re back on the horse here as Detroit goes on the road to face a Washington team that is missing its starting quarterback, top receiver, top defensive back, and several others. The Lions are sure to be smarting after last week’s disappointment, and there hasn’t been much slowing down the Jared Goff-led offense this season, as they lead the NFC in points scored at 29.9 ppg. The Commanders have a terrible defense that is bottom 5 in yards allowed and is surrendering 33.7 ppg in the team’s current 4-game losing streak, and now that they’re without top CB Marshon Lattimore, it’s difficult to envision a scenario where they’re anything but a speed bump against the high-powered Detroit offense. I sense a blowout incoming here… this one won’t be close.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Los Angeles Chargers (LA -2.5, 45)
Recommendation: Pittsburgh +2.5 at 1.99
The late game Sunday is perhaps the day’s best matchup, one that features two playoff contenders and two great quarterbacks representing different generations. This game could come down to whether Chargers QB Justin Herbert can exploit a Pittsburgh secondary that has struggled mightily this season, but there’s more to that matchup than meets the eye — the Steelers made some tweaks with both schemes and personnel prior to last week’s upset win over Indianapolis, most notably moving CB Jalen Ramsey to safety, where his aggressiveness can be an asset instead of a liability. Plus, in order for Herbert to get the ball downfield his banged-up o-line will have to keep him upright against a fearsome Steelers pass rush that ranks third in the NFL with 27 sacks. On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh will look to exploit a L.A. defense that has been vulnerable against the run, and Aaron Rodgers is sure to utilize play-action to take some shots downfield to DK Metcalf and a now-healthy Calvin Austin. It feels like the Steelers quietly turned a corner with the win over the Colts last week and I like their chances to pull the minor upset over a Chargers team that may not be quite as good as their record suggests.
