WEEK 10: Even for a league known for its unpredictability, Week 9 was a doozy– the Rams lost to the Derrick Henry-less Titans; the Cards pulled off the upset over the Niners despite being without many of their best and most vital players, including Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins; the Broncos prevailed in Dallas as a double-digit ‘dog; and in the strangest results of all, two-touchdown underdog Jacksonville gutted out a 9-6 win over AFC frontrunner Buffalo. “Any given Sunday”, indeed.
And lest you thought the weirdness was confined to Week 9, we saw another unusual result to kick off this Week 10, as the Miami defense shut down Lamar Jackson and the Ravens on Thursday night in a 22-10 Dolphins victory. The AFC is now as wide open as ever, with 11 teams within two games of the conference-leading Titans, a team that will have to navigate the rest of the season without its best player. Even sad sacks like the Jags and Jets could get right back into the thick of the playoff picture with 2 or 3 consecutive wins, which doesn’t seem as impossible as it did a week ago.
All things considered, I guess we shouldn’t complain too loudly about our 2-2 split last week– it was a rough Sunday for many bettors. Let’s see if we can return to profitability with these four selections:
Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys (DAL -8, 54.5)
Recommendation: Dallas -8 at 1.91
The Falcons have won 3 of 4 after upsetting the Saints last week, and if the season ended today they would be in the playoffs. That result would be surprising to just about anybody who follows the team, because, well… the Falcons simply aren’t very good. The defense is porous, surrendering 27.5 points per game and 4.4 yards per rushing attempt, and the offense isn’t particularly threatening without top receiver Calvin Ridley, who remains out with what the team has deemed a “personal issue”. Matt Ryan has been forced to rely on ageless Swiss army knife Cordarrelle Patterson and rookie tight end Kyle Pitts, which means he’ll be outgunned in this one, as Dallas QB Dak Prescott is surrounded by a bevy of elite weapons– Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard in the backfield, and Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and others on the perimeter. Prescott laid an egg in his return from a calf injury last week, throwing for just 232 yards on 39 attempts in a surprising loss to Denver, but he’s had a great season and I fully expect him to return to form against a vulnerable Atlanta defense. Look for Dallas to bounce back from last week’s disappointment with a big win here.
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets (BUF -12.5, 48)
Recommendation: New York +12.5 at 1.95
Conventional wisdom here is that Buffalo bounces back from a miserable performance in Jacksonville last week to absolutely thrash the Jets. And that’s a definite possibility– the Bills have won five games by two touchdowns or more this season, while the Jets have four such losses. But this New York team has been a different bunch since Mike White took over for rookie Zach Wilson at quarterback– White threw for over 400 yards in a shocking Week 8 upset of Cincinnati, and he had the offense moving again in Indianapolis last Thursday before being forced out of the game with an arm injury. He practiced all week, though, and based on reports that his teammates start chanting his name anytime he enters a room, he’s certainly got the locker room believing. In Buffalo, meanwhile, the problems may run deeper than just a one-week hiccup, as the Bills have now dropped 2 of 3 and the offense has been oddly stagnant. Opposing defenses have begun to ignore the anemic Buffalo rushing attack to focus all their energy on containing Josh Allen, and with Bills RB Zack Moss in concussion protocol and expected to miss this game, the Jets will surely follow that blueprint. It’s dangerous to just assume that Buffalo has things figured out now despite what we’ve seen recently… while I’d be surprised if the Jets were able to win this one, I like their chances of keeping it within two touchdowns.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Football Team (TB -9.5, 51.5)
Recommendation: Tampa Bay -9.5 at 1.97
When these teams met in the playoffs last season Washington QB Taylor Heinicke put on a show, throwing for 289 yards and a touchdown and adding another 46 yards and a TD on the ground. At that time, however, neither the Bucs nor the rest of the league had seen much of Heinicke, who is a unique player due to his mobility and comfort with making plays outside the pocket. These days, it’s a different story– Heinicke has been Washington’s starting QB since Ryan Fitzpatrick was lost to a hip injury in Week 1, and he’s been exposed as a player who is very ordinary when his running is contained and he’s forced to challenge defenses downfield. The Tampa front seven is excellent against the run, so Heinicke will have to sling it around in this one, and the Washington offense isn’t well-equipped for pass-heavy shootouts. You can’t say the same about the Bucs offense, however– Tom Brady has passed for 4+ TDs five times already this season, and even without Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown, who are both out this week, he should find plenty of success against a Washington defense that has allowed the most passing yards and second-most passing TDs in the league. Lay the points with confidence here– this one won’t be close.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Denver Broncos (DEN -2.5, 45.5)
Recommendation: Philadelphia +2.5 at 1.93
The Broncos are riding high after last week’s upset win over Dallas, and at 5-4 they’re right in the thick of the crowded AFC playoff picture. Until last week, however, they had been racking up wins against the dregs of the league– Jacksonville, Washington, both New York teams– and hadn’t fared so well against teams with a pulse, as we saw with their 4-game losing streak that began in Week 4. The Eagles, despite their uninspiring record, fall into the “team with a pulse” category, as their defense is salty up front and the offense has been able to run the ball even when opposing defenses know it’s coming, averaging 136.6 rushing yards per game and 4.9 yards per carry. That could spell trouble for a Denver defense that has been softer than expected against the run this season and is just two games removed from getting shredded by third-string Cleveland RB D’Ernest Johnson, who ran for 146 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries. I’m expecting this one to turn into a defensive struggle, and the Philly pass-rushers should be able to get after Denver QB Teddy Bridgewater, who has a reputation for holding onto the ball too long and has taken 26 sacks this season, third-most in the NFL. Don’t be surprised to see the Eagles escape Mile High with a victory.
