NFL WEEK 11: This Week 11 kicked off with a Thursday night battle for supremacy in the NFC East, and when it was over the Eagles had claimed a 2-game lead in the division after a come from behind 28-16 win over Washington. Saquon Barkley continued to carry the mail for Philly, rushing 26 times for 146 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Barkley has looked like an MVP-level player since escaping New York and his emergence changes things for the Eagles, who have been over-reliant on the arm and legs of Jalen Hurts for the past couple of years. Aside from the Detroit Lions, who seem to be a cut above the rest of the conference right now, Philadelphia is in as good of a position as any team in the NFC to make a Super Bowl run.
We’ve got some compelling matchups on tap for Sunday, highlighted by Kansas City’s visit to Buffalo and a first-place showdown in the AFC North between bitter rivals Pittsburgh and Baltimore. That said, I’ve found it to be a difficult week to handicap and have gone back and forth on several games. Here are three I’ve decided to play:
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions (DET -13.5, 46.5)
Recommendation: Detroit -13.5 at 1.92
Laying two touchdowns in the NFL is always a tough pill to swallow, and despite their 2-8 record the Jags have been very competitive for most of the season, with 6 of their 8 losses coming by 7 points or less. That said, Trevor Lawrence is now sidelined indefinitely with a shoulder injury and his backup, Mac Jones, looks like he’s ready to transition careers from NFL QB to insurance salesman. Jones was absolutely brutal in an ugly 12-7 loss to the Vikings last week, throwing for just 11 yards and committing three turnovers as the Jags could muster just 143 total yards as a team. It’s a pretty hopeless situation in Jacksonville right now, and we haven’t even mentioned the defense, a unit that ranks last in the league in total yards allowed and next-to-last in pass yards allowed. A trip to Detroit for these Jags is the lambs being led to the slaughter — the Lions are 8-1 and have absolutely pulverized a few teams, like their 47-9 curb-stomping of Dallas and the 52-14 demolition of Jacksonville’s AFC South rival Tennessee. Look for a similar result on Sunday… you could add another 7 points to this line and I still wouldn’t want to touch Jacksonville.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills (BUF -2, 46.5)
Recommendation: Buffalo -2 at 1.97
The Chiefs are the NFL’s lone remaining undefeated team but the wins have been getting more difficult to come by lately, with each of their past three victories being one-score affairs and the last one, a 16-14 win over Denver, requiring a near-miraculous blocked field goal on the game’s final play. The Bills, meanwhile, are riding a 5-game win streak and have absolutely been laying waste to the opposition, racking up five double-digit wins this season and four of 21 points or more. The Buffalo defense has had some good success against Kansas City in recent years, holding the Chiefs to just 20.8 points per game in the past four regular-season meetings, and this Chiefs offense hasn’t been as explosive as in years past. The Chiefs defense, for their part, has been pretty good against Josh Allen historically but has struggled mightily the last two weeks against inferior QBs Baker Mayfield and Bo Nix, and now they face a team that is second in the AFC in scoring this season, trailing only Baltimore. It sure feels like the fun ends here for Kansas City, at least temporarily… these teams will probably see each other again in January. We’ll analyze that game when we get there, but for now I think the smart money is on Josh Allen and the Bills.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Los Angeles Chargers (LA -1, 48.5)
Recommendation: Cincinnati +1 at 1.97
Heading into the season I don’t think many expected the LA Chargers to lead the NFL in points allowed, but that’s exactly where we find ourselves through 10 weeks: the Bolts are surrendering an NFL-best 13.1 points per game and are in great position for a playoff berth at 6-3. That being said, the schedule has been pretty friendly — they’ve only faced one top-10 offense (Kansas City) and have fattened up on teams like the Raiders, Panthers, Saints, Browns, and Titans. The Bengals may have a losing record, but their offense is among the league’s best once again, racking up 75 combined points over the past two games, and Joe Burrow leads the NFL in passing yards. It feels like an LA team that has been skating by on some close, low scoring wins this season is about to be smacked in the face by reality. Cincinnati desperately needs this one to remain in playoff contention… I’ll be genuinely surprised if the Chargers can hold serve at home here. Gimme the Bengals.
