NFL WEEK 11: Who’s the best team in the NFL? Well, after a after a 27-14 win over the lowly New York Jets on Thursday night, the NFL’s best record belongs to Drake Maye and the New England Patriots, who sit at 9-2 despite a young roster devoid of big-name talent and a first-year coach in Mike Vrabel. They are solid on both sides of the ball, though, and Maye has been a revelation, a smart, accurate passer who seems to be improving each week. As for Vrabel, he has to be the leading candidate for NFL Coach of the Year, right? I know there’s a lot of football left to be played, but the job he’s done in turning these no-name Pats into a Super Bowl contender, while at the same time his former team, Tennessee, has sunk to the bottom of the standings… well, let’s just say his dinner is probably tasting pretty good these days, eh?
Our dinner has been tasty all season thanks to a good run of fortune that continued last week, as we cashed 3 of our 4 bets to improve to 25-15 on the year. Here’s what we’ve got for this week:
Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants (GB -7, 42)
Recommendation: Green Bay -7 at 1.91
After losing dynamic young quarterback Jaxson Dart to a concussion last week and firing head coach Brian Daboll on Monday, the Giants have seemingly hit bottom. There’s a school of thought that they’ll rally behind interim coach Mike Kafka and put forth a competitive performance here, backed by the fact that, since 2020, teams who have made a coaching change midseason are 10-5 ATS in the first game following the change, but with a washed-up Russell Wilson under center and a defense that can’t stop the run, I have difficulty envisioning them staying competitive against Green Bay on Sunday. The Packers were 5-1-1 before losses in their last two games to Carolina and Philadelphia in which they scored just 20 combined points, so you know they’re desperate to get the offense revved up again and return to the near-elite level it was operating at for the season’s first six weeks. They’ve found the right opponent for it here, I think, and I don’t believe the Wilson-led New York offense will be able to respond. This one could get ugly.
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons (ATL -3.5, 42)
Recommendation: Atlanta -3.5 at 1.91
The Falcons are reeling, having lost 4 straight, and are in a must-win situation here at home against division rival Carolina. As if that weren’t motivation enough, I’m sure the Week 3 game, when the Panthers absolutely dominated these Falcons in a 30-0 laugher, is still fresh in the minds of Atlanta players and coaches. For all their faults, the Falcons have been playing solid defense all season, leading the NFL in pass yards allowed and ranking 10th in total yards allowed. The Panthers, meanwhile, have had an incredibly difficult time putting up points lately, even in the wins, scoring 13 points or fewer in their last 4 games, including a mere 7 in last week’s ugly loss to a bad New Orleans team. A road game against the league’s best passing defense is a tough way to get things turned around, especially when you lack the type of difference-making skill players that Atlanta has (all due respect to Rico Dowdle, but he’s no Bijan Robinson). This is a critical get-right spot for the Falcons, with a chance for a bit of revenge after the Week 3 humiliation. I think they get the job done.
Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams (LA -3, 49)
Recommendation: Seattle +3 at 1.95
Aside from New England, Seattle might be the most surprising team in the NFL, a squad that was expected to miss the playoffs but may instead challenge for the NFC crown. Sam Darnold has exceeded expectations at quarterback and his top receiver, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, has established himself as one of the league’s best wideouts, but it’s the play of the Seahawks defense that has really been the story. After struggling in 2024 the ‘Hawks have been rock solid on D this season, ranking 5th in the NFL in points allowed and 3rd against the run, surrendering just 90 ypg on the ground. They also rank 5th in interceptions, and Matt Stafford has never been afraid to put the ball up for grabs and trust his receivers, which, in fairness, is generally a smart move when you have wideouts like Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. In this spot, however, I expect the Seattle D to get to Stafford and rattle him a bit, while Darnold should be able to settle in and do work against a leaky Rams secondary that surrendered 319 passing yards and 3 TDs to 49ers backup Mac Jones last week. The Seahawks have a great chance to win this one outright, but I’ll happily take the 3 points in a game that could be quite competitive.
Detroit Lions @ Philadelphia Eagles (PHI -2.5, 46.5)
Recommendation: Detroit +2.5 at 1.91
We’ve got a dandy on Sunday night, as the NFC North-leading Lions visit Philadelphia for a clash with the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles. Philly is 7-2 but the offense has been clunky and the passing game practically nonexistent at times, as only two NFC teams are producing fewer yards per game through the air. The Detroit defense is better against the run than the pass, so it will be interesting to see what the Eagles offensive gameplan looks like here, whether they’ll stick with the ground-and-pound or let Jalen Hurts air it out a little. Either way, I think they’re going to have trouble keeping pace with an explosive Lions offense that ranks second in the NFL in points scored (31.4 ppg) and just hung 44 on Washington last week. Lions head coach Dan Campbell is 0-2 against Philadelphia since taking over in Detroit, a fact he mentioned multiple times in his engagements with the press this week. In what is a measuring stick game for a Detroit team with Super Bowl aspirations, I expect them to take care of business.
