NFL WEEK 11: With the playoff picture beginning to come into focus and nearly every team still harboring postseason hopes, meaningful football is everywhere you turn in Week 11. As a matter of fact, all 14 games on the schedule have playoff implications, with eight of those games featuring two teams who are both within a game of a playoff spot.
It all gets started with a good one on Thursday night, as the New Orleans Saints travel to Carolina to face their division-rival Panthers in a game that both teams desperately need. And both teams are reeling, too, after really tough losses last week: Carolina blew a big lead and fell to Kansas City (making us a little money in the process), while New Orleans lost in mind-numbing fashion after an extra point that would’ve given them a 1-point lead in the waning moments of the game was blocked and returned for a safety by Denver (we lost on that one, so these gut-wrenching finishes all even out, I suppose). The NFC South is still within reach, however, and these teams are bitter rivals, so the atmosphere should be electric inside Bank of America Stadium.
The Panthers are a 3.5-point favorite at BETDAQ, but their struggling secondary is going to have its hands full with Drew Brees and the high-powered New Orleans passing attack. Over 52 may be a play worth considering, though it should be mentioned that these Thursday nighters have been anything but predictable, so you may want to tread carefully.
We’ve had a lackluster season thus far, winning one week and then losing it right back the next, but we’re one little hot streak away from another successful year. Hopefully these three picks will get it rolling:
Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals (Cin -2.5, 47)
Recommendation: Buffalo +2.5 at 2.0
Both Buffalo and Cincinnati are in desperate need of a win here, as the loser will have six losses and will be fighting for their playoff lives for the remainder of the season. The Bills have dropped three straight but are coming off a bye, while Cincy is working on a short week after a tough loss to the Giants on Monday night.
The matchup to watch is the Buffalo running game against Cincinnati’s rushing defense: the Bengals have struggled against the run this season, surrendering over 116 yards per game on the ground (24th in the NFL), while the Bills rank second in the league with 155 rushing yards per game. That’s a real problem for Cincinnati, as the Bills have been tough to beat this season when they’ve been able to impose their will on the offensive side of the ball.
Of course, Buffalo’s been pretty tough to beat in general— four of their five losses have come by 6 points or fewer, and the last three have all come against teams who currently have winning records. Contrast that with Cincinnati, a team that has suffered three double-digit losses and just one narrow defeat— last week’s 21-20 loss to New York. So it doesn’t just “seem” like the Bills have been better than the Bengals this season, they indeed have been better, and I expect them to pull out a much-needed road win on Sunday.
Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings (Min -2, 40)
Recommendation: Minnesota -2 at 1.89
The sky is falling in Minnesota, as the Vikings have dropped four straight after a terrific start to the season. Now they return home, however, where they are generally excellent— 3-1 this year and 19-7 against the spread in their last 26 games. They’re hosting an Arizona team that has covered just once in their last six games against teams with winning records and is coming off a very unimpressive 3-point win over the dreadful San Francisco 49ers, so this is a golden opportunity for the Vikes to snap their 4-game slide.
If they’re going to do it, they’re gong to do it with defense— Minnesota leads the NFL in points allowed and ranks third in yards allowed, so this will be an extraordinarily tough test for Carson Palmer and the Arizona offense. Speaking of Palmer, he clearly hasn’t been “himself” since his 6-turnover performance in last year’s NFC Championship Game. Is there an undisclosed injury that we don’t know about? Has father time finally caught up with him at age 36? I think the latter option is more likely, but regardless of what the issue is, going on the road to face a fast, physical Vikings D is tough way to get things turned around.
Palmer’s counterpart on Sunday, Sam Bradford, hasn’t been getting much help from his o-line or running game, but I think Bradford is quietly beginning to find his footing in Minnesota. He has developed a nice rapport with receivers Stefon Diggs and Adam Theilen and tight end Kyle Rudolph, and his accuracy on short and intermediate throws has really begun to shine through over the last couple of weeks. I have a hunch he outplays Palmer in this one and the Vikings get their first win in a month.
Washington Redskins @ Green Bay Packers (Was -2.5, 50.5)
Recommendation: Washington -2.5 at 1.91
The struggle is real in Green Bay. The Packers have now lost three straight and four of five, and they’re coming off their worst performance of the season, a 22-point loss to a mediocre Tennessee team. The defense hasn’t been great, but it’s been the offensive ineptitude that has really caught everyone off guard— after years of looking like a well-oiled machine, the wheels seem to have fallen off for Aaron Rodgers and Co, as the running game has been nonexistent, the receivers are having trouble getting open, and Rodgers himself, possible pressing a bit, has made some uncharacteristically poor decisions. The Redskins have a good secondary that features one of the NFL’s premier cornerbacks in Josh Norman, so there’s no reason to think that Rodgers is going to suddenly snap out of it this week.
And I really think that’s where most Green Bay backers are coming from— they simply believe that the recent struggles are an aberration, and any week now the Packers of old will reemerge and reclaim their spot among the NFC’s elite. That sort of thinking has created value here, as the 5-3-1 Redskins, despite their superior record and obvious advantages over Green Bay, are still regarded by many as a pretender.
Folks, we’re 10 weeks into the season now. It’s time to put aside you preseason opinions of these teams and judge them for what they really are: Green Bay is a 4-5 team with an average offense and a defense that surrenders 26 points per game, while the Skins are a playoff contender with an explosive offense (3rd in the NFL in pass yards) and a defense that is soft against the run but very good in the secondary. In other words, this is a great matchup for Washington, and a great opportunity for bettors who are able look beyond reputations and performance in years past. In the here and now, the Redskins are the better team.
