NFL WEEK 12: Snow games are always fun, and this Week 12 kicked off with a great one on Thursday night, as longtime rivals Cleveland and Pittsburgh went back and forth in steadily worsening conditions and kept at it until the final play, a Russell Wilson hail mary that fell incomplete in the snow. The result may not mean a whole lot at the end of the day — the Browns improved to 3-8 and are still well outside the playoff picture, while the Steelers are now 8-3 and remain in control of the AFC North — but it was a good reminder that sometimes records and the standings just don’t matter when there’s an intense, violent contest that features genuine animosity between the combatants. Football can sometimes scratch this primal itch in a beautiful way, with Thursday night being a prime example. And if you have any doubt about the “genuine animosity” part, I encourage you to watch a replay of the game’s final play — as Wilson’s pass was in the air on its way to the end zone, Pittsburgh’s best receiver, George Pickens, was embroiled in a fight with Cleveland DB Greg Newsome that took both men out of the play and was only ended when multiple people pried the two apart after final whistle. Pickens is a hard case with a bad attitude. He’ll probably be suspended by the league at some point… and I’d love to have him on my team.
It’ll be tough for the rest of this Week 12 slate to measure up to that one, but there are some intriguing matchups and a couple of opportunities that I feel very strongly about. Here are my favorites:
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (MIN -3.5, 39.5)
Recommendation: Chicago +3.5 1.91
Though they are in the midst of a 4-game losing streak, the Bears have been playing well on the defensive side of the ball, and after parting ways with offensive coordinator Shane Waldron a week ago the offense looked a lot more functional in last week’s 20-19 loss to Green Bay, putting up 391 total yards without a turnover. The Vikings D is known for creative blitz packages and they will undoubtedly try to pressure and confuse Bears rookie QB Caleb Williams, but Williams looked awfully comfortable last week in completing 23 of 31 passes for 231 yards against Green Bay, and Minnesota is vulnerable in the secondary, ranking 28th in pass yards allowed. This feels like a sneaky good matchup for a Bears team that is quietly starting to turn the corner.
San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers (GB -5.5, 44.5)
Recommendation: San Francisco +5.5 at 1.93
A Super Bowl favorite that sits at 5-5 through ten games, the Niners have undoubtedly been a disappointment thus far, but they’re only a game back in the NFC West, 7 regular season games remain, and they now have the NFL’s best offensive player back healthy again after he was forced to miss 8 games. In other words, there’s plenty of time to turn this thing around, and this week they travel to Green Bay to face a Packers team that isn’t as good as its record indicates. The Pack have been skating by lately, with their last three wins coming by 6 combined points despite the opposition having a combined record of 13-19 (there was also the Week 10 a double-digit loss to Detroit sandwiched in there). The Jordan Love-led offense will have a stiff challenge against a San Francisco D that ranks 2nd in the NFC in yards allowed, and the Green Bay defense will have to buckle up the chin straps against a Niners rushing attack that ranks 4th in the NFL despite missing Christiam McCaffrey for most of the season. The line is as big as it is here because San Fran will be without starting QB Brock Purdy, but Brandon Allen and Josh Dobbs are both seasoned vets who can effectively operate Kyle Shanahan’s offense. I like the Niners to keep this one close and possibly steal the win outright.
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks (pk, 47.5)
Recommendation: Arizona moneyline (to win) at 1.99
Do you believe in the Cards? This is a litmus test right here — yes, they’re on the road, but Seattle is a thoroughly mediocre team that has lost 5 of 7 overall and 4 straight at home. Arizona is riding a 4-game win streak and coming off a bye, so if you’re for real — if the Cards are a legit playoff contender — they take care of business here and assume control of the NFC West. I like their chances: the defense has been playing well, surrendering 15 points or fewer in 4 of the team’s past 5 games, and the offense is no longer the Kyler Murray chuck-and-duck routine. Instead, they are running it and running it effectively, ranking 2nd in the NFL with 5.2 yards per rush and 5th with 149.2 rush yards per game. That could spell trouble for a Seahawks D that ranks 27th in the league against the run, surrendering nearly 140 yards per game on the ground. This is a great opportunity for Arizona to make a statement and position themselves for a playoff run.
Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers (BAL -2.5, 50.5)
Recommendation: Los Angeles +2.5 at 1.96
The Monday nighter is a potential AFC playoff preview, as the AFC North-leading Ravens head west to face the 7-3 L.A. Chargers in a game that not only pits Harbaugh vs. Harbaugh, but also Lamar Jackson vs. Justin Herbert, the 2-time MVP against a guy who is making a good case to win the award this season. Herbert has been magnificent these past few weeks, throwing for 279 yards or more in 4 of his past 5 starts as the Chargers have reeled off 4 straight wins. He’ll have every opportunity to keep it going against the worst pass defense in the league — Baltimore surrenders a whopping 284.5 yards per game through the air, last in the NFL by a wide margin. The Chargers defense, meanwhile, leads the league in points allowed and has been adept at creating turnovers, with L.A.’s +8 turnover margin a big reason for the team’s 7-3 record. I have a hunch that Jim gets the better of John this time… we’ll see if John gets another shot in January.
