NFL WEEK 12: Food, fellowship, and football— that’s what the Thanksgiving holiday is about, and this Thursday Americans of all stripes will be contributing to the national obesity epidemic while suffering even the most undesirable members of the family. Of course, there’s also the football, which is what makes it all tolerable.
Three games will be played on Thursday, as the Lions and Cowboys occupy their traditional Thanksgiving Day slots while the nightcap will see Pittsburgh travel to Indianapolis for a game that is critical to both teams’ playoff hopes. Unfortunately for the Colts (and for everyone who plans on tuning in), Andrew Luck has been placed in the league’s concussion protocol and is unlikely to play, leaving Scott Tolzien as the man charged with outdueling Ben Roethlisberger. This sounds like a recipe for disaster for Indy, obviously, which is why the Steelers have been installed as 8-point favorites at BETDAQ despite having lost four of their past five games.
The other two Thanksgiving games should be quite competitive, however, and with no teams on bye we still have a full slate on Sunday, so there’s a lot to be thankful for indeed. We won all three of our bets last week, another reason to smile, and have now steadied the ship after a rough start to the season. Here are my thoughts on Week 12:
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions (Det -2.5, 42.5)
Recommendation: Minnesota +2.5 at 1.98
The Vikings stopped the bleeding with a win over Arizona last week and now they head to Detroit for a critical game in the NFC North, as both teams currently sit at 6-4. The Lions have been flirting with disaster all season— despite being two games over .500, they’ve actually trailed in the 4th quarter of every game this year, and all ten of their games have been decided by 7 points or fewer.
One of those rabbit-out-of-the-hat wins came at the expense of these same Vikings just two weeks ago, as Minnesota lost in overtime despite outgaining the Lions and controlling the action throughout. Kicker Blair Walsh (since released) missed an extra point and a 4th-quarter field goal, and when Detroit’s Matt Prater sent the game into overtime with a 58-yard field goal as time expired everyone in the building knew what the final outcome would be. But this is a new week and a new game, and the same Vikings defense that held Matt Stafford to 219 yards and an interception on 36 attempts will be out for blood on Sunday.
And make no mistake: this Minnesota defense is as good as it gets. Physical and athletic, Mike Zimmer’s unit has forced 20 turnovers and scored three touchdowns while ranking 2nd in the league in points allowed and 3rd in yards allowed. There’s cause for optimism on the other side of the ball as well, with Sam Bradford seeming increasingly more comfortable in the offense and developing a nice rapport with wideouts Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. I have a hunch Bradford outplays Stafford and the Vikings pull the minor upset here.
Arizona Cardinals @ Atlanta Falcons (Atl -4, 50.5)
Recommendation: Arizona +4 at 1.91
Listening to the chatter around the league you’d think the sky was falling in Arizona. The Cards have been choppy this season and are just 4-5-1, hanging on to postseason hopes by a thread, and their performance is apparently so poor that it is literally killing their coach (Bruce Arians has been released from the hospital, by the way, and is expected to coach on Sunday). Chest pains aside, there’s no doubt that Arizona has struggled to find the winning formula that carried them all the way to the NFC Championship game last year, but, as a wise man once said, I do believe that rumors of their demise have been greatly exaggerated.
Championship football in the NFL starts with defense, and the Cards have a unit that leads the NFL in both total yards allowed and pass yards allowed. They may not be able to stop the high-flying Atlanta offense, but they should be able to really slow them down, much like Philadelphia did in beating the Falcons 24-15 back in Week 10. And if Atlanta doesn’t score and score often, winning games becomes quite difficult. That’s because— stop me if you’ve heard this before— the Falcons defense has been an absolute sieve in recent weeks, ranking 27th in yards allowed and surrendering more points than all but three teams leaguewide.
The Arizona offense may not be quite as explosive as they were last season, but they still rank 9th in the league in total yards from scrimmage and should go up and down the field with little resistance in this game. Tailback David Johnson has provided some balance to go along with the downfield passing of Carson Palmer, and the receiving corps is still one of the NFC’s best. It just feels like this will be a “get well” game for Palmer and Co., while Matt Ryan will have his hands full with the NFL’s best secondary. And considering the Falcons have covered just twice in their last 10 home games, I’m not too concerned about where this one is being played.
New York Giants @ Cleveland Browns (NY -7, 44)
Recommendation: Cleveland +7 at 1.89
At first glance, this one looks like a no-brainer: the Giants have won five consecutive games and are now 7-3 on the year, while the hapless Browns are 0-11 and could be headed for the first winless season in franchise history. But, as is often the case, the complete picture is a bit more complicated.
Bottom line: the Giants simply aren’t as good as their 7-3 record would indicate. Even their five-game win streak comes with a couple of caveats, as none of the five teams they beat currently has a winning record, every game was decided by 7 points or fewer, and four of the five games were in New York, while the other was at a neutral site (London). In other words, the Giants have been unable to win home games against losing teams by more than 7 points, and we’re asking them to go on the road and cover a 7-point number here. This just isn’t the type of team that wins big very often— they rank 20th in the league in total offense and 16th in total defense, so they’re thoroughly average everywhere but the win column.
And the Browns are going to put up a fight. I know that statement may draw some eyerolls, but watching them last week against Pittsburgh, when they held Ben Roethlisberger to 167 passing yards and no touchdowns, it was clear that they’re still playing hard for coach Hue Jackson. Most importantly, the right man will be under center this week, as Josh McCown will get the call after rookie Cody Kessler was knocked out of last week’s game with a concussion.
It’s borderline criminal that Kessler was starting, anyway— I understand the logic behind it, as McCown is a 37-year old journeyman while Kessler is still a developmental prospect— but if the ultimate goal is to win games, McCown should’ve been out there. His last extended action was in Week 8, when he threw for 341 yards against the Jets, and every time he comes in the game— including last week— the offense gets an instant spark. I expect him to have a big game here and keep the Browns close in what’s sure to be a shootout.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills (Buf -7.5, 44.5)
Recommendation: Buffalo -7.5 at 2.0
Things have officially turned sour in Jacksonville, as the Jags have lost five straight games and head coach Gus Bradley is a dead man walking. And the issues run deeper then just a losing record and a lame duck coach– the team has turned on its own fans, with several players speaking out about the lack of home support and star receiver Allen Robinson going so far as to say that the team only enjoys a true home-field advantage at Wembley. Offensive coordinator Greg Olson was fired three weeks ago but there haven’t been any signs of improvement in the wake of his departure, especially from quarterback Blake Bortles, who has been a massive disappointment in his third year and can best be described as an inaccurate turnover machine at this point in his career. And the defense, the supposed strength of the team, has inexplicably melted down several times this season and cannot be relied upon in critical situations.
So yeah… it isn’t good.
The Bills have their own set of issues, but they picked up a crucial road win in Cincinnati last week and are very much alive in the AFC Wild Card race at 5-5. This is obviously a must-win situation for them, so they should be locked in and ready for the 2-8 Jags, and their aggressive defense is surely licking its chops at the thought of feasting on the mistake-prone Jacksonville offense.
The only concern here, really, is the 7.5-point number. Buffalo is a run-first team that is not explosive offensively– Tyrod Taylor only averages 186 pass yards per game– and the Jacksonville defense has played fairly well since their embarrassing Week 7 performance in Tennessee. But there are a couple of things to consider: 1. the Jags just can’t get out of their own way on offense, and Blake Bortles leads the NFL in pick-sixes since entering the league. There is an excellent chance that the Bills defense will either score in this game or gift-wrap a score for the offense– possibly both; and 2. the Jags have seemingly quit– or displayed very little effort– several times this season, most memorably in the aforementioned debacle in Tennessee. They are simply not a high-character team, and everyone connected to the franchise knows that the coaching staff and much of the roster will be elsewhere next year. If Buffalo jumps on them early, look out– this one could get ugly. Real ugly.
