NFL WEEK 13: For many Americans, the Thanksgiving holiday is about food, family, and football — not necessarily in that order. Thursday brought us the usual 3-game Thanksgiving feast, and while none of the outcomes will shake up the playoff picture, Chicago’s bumbling end of game clock management in a 23-20 loss to Detroit has already cost head coach Matt Eberflus his job. Eberflus, who was in his third season with the Bears, leaves with a record of 5-19 in one-score games — the worst record in NFL history for coaches with at least 20 such games. The Lions escaped after falling asleep in the second half and are still right on track for the 1-seed in the NFC and homefield advantage throughout the postseason.
There was a game on Friday, too, as the Chiefs topped the Raiders 19-17 to become the first team in the league to clinch a playoff berth.
We still have 11 games on tap for Sunday and another one Monday night, so this Week 13 is just getting cranked up. It’s a great time of year, isn’t it? Here are my favorites this week:
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals (CIN -3, 46.5)
Recommendation: Cincinnati -3 at 2.0
Mike Tomlin has done it again in Pittsburgh, taking a Steelers team that looked lifeless as a whole and inept on offense at the beginning of the season and turning them into a legit contender. Even after last week’s loss to Cleveland the Steelers sit alone atop the AFC North and appear to be a shoo-in for the playoffs. That said, the problems on offense remain, with Russell Wilson and a below-average receiving corps often unable to find a rhythm and establish a consistent passing attack, and the defense, though quite good, can be exploited in the secondary when the pass rush doesn’t get home. That is surely the plan for Cincinnati this week — keep Joe Burrow upright long enough so he can find the mismatches downfield and light up the scoreboard. Burrow is in the midst of his best season and his top target JaMarr Chase leads the NFL in receiving yards, and he knows how to attack Pittsburgh’s zone scheme, throwing for a combined 693 yards and 6 touchdowns in his last 2 games against these Steelers. The Bengals are coming off a bye and this is desperation time for them — if they want to make a playoff run, this is pretty much a must-win. I think the fact that they’re playing a familiar, hated rival helps them in this spot, and I expect Burrow to torch this Steelers defense, as usual. Gimme the home team.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Baltimore Ravens (BAL -3, 50.0)
Recommendation: Philadelphia +3 at 1.89
What a great matchup this is — Philly has won 7 straight and boasts the NFL’s 3rd-ranked offense, while Baltimore is 8-4, 4-1 at home, and ranks 1st in the league in total offense. There is a clear difference between these two teams, however, and it’s on the defensive side of the ball: the Ravens are vulnerable in the secondary, ranking 31st (next to last) in the NFL in passing yards allowed, while the Eagles have been tremendous on defense in their current 7-game win streak, especially in the secondary, limiting opposing QBs to 140.2 pass yards per game and 5.4 yards per attempt in that span, best in the NFL in both areas (h/t ESPN stats & info). So, we can expect Jalen Hurts to have opportunities downfield in this game, while Lamar Jackson will have a much stiffer challenge in penetrating the stout Philly D. Plus, Eagles RB Saquon Barkley is on an absolute tear and is building a strong case for league MVP, racking up 1,650 total yards and 12 TDs already this season. It just feels like the Eagles are going to be a bit too much for the Ravens right now… look for their defense to force a couple of turnovers and for A.J. Brown to make some big plays downfield as they keep the streak going.
San Francisco 49ers @ Buffalo Bills (BUF -6.5, 44.5)
Recommendation: San Francisco +6.5 at 1.94
The status of San Francisco starting QB Brock Purdy is the big question that hangs over this game, but as of Friday evening it looks like Purdy is set to make his return to the lineup. Assuming he plays, this feels like a lot of points to be giving a Niners team that is only a game out of first in the NFC West and has a defense that is still playing at an elite level, ranking 5th in the NFL in yards allowed. The offense now has star RB Christian McCaffrey back in the fold, and with he and Purdy in the backfield together they should be among the league’s most potent units, and indeed, despite all the injuries and disappointing losses, San Fran still ranks 4th in the league in total offense. The Niners actually average more yards per game than the Bills and allow fewer yards, but it’s so difficult to bet against Buffalo right now given what we’ve seen lately — six straight wins, with four of those coming by double-digits. That said, the defense has been very average statistically, and the offense hasn’t threatened opposing defenses downfield as much as in years past, with Josh Allen averaging just over 220 yards per game through the air. The Bills play winning football and they may well win this game, but in what should be a hard-fought battle between two perennial Super Bowl contenders, I’ll take the points.
