NFL WEEK 13: Thanksgiving Day always delivers a smorgasbord of NFL action, and this week we had three Thursday games plus another on Black Friday, sanity-saving diversions for those of us embroiled in family time (ahem, in-laws) and the All-American pastime of overeating.
The biggest surprise had to be Cincinnati marching into Baltimore and beating the Ravens as a 7-point ‘dog, but all four games so far this week have been won by the underdog, with the Packers topping the Lions, the Cowboys taking out the Chiefs, and the Bears going into Philly and upsetting the Eagles on Friday. It all makes for a pretty jumbled playoff picture, especially in the NFC, where no division leader has more than a 1-game lead and winning teams like Detroit and Dallas are currently on the outside looking in. But, hey, we’re only 13 weeks into an 18-week regular season. There’s a lot of football left to be played.
Speaking of a lot of football, we still have 11 games on the slate for Sunday plus the Monday nighter in New England, when Jaxson Dart will make his return at quarterback for the visiting Giants as they look to derail the Patriots’ march to the playoffs. Here’s my prediction for that one plus three others:
San Francisco 49ers @ Cleveland Browns (SF -4.5, 36)
Recommendation: San Francisco -4.5 at 1.91
The Browns will look to make it back-to-back wins to kick off the Shedeur Sanders era and will be facing a Niners team that has been inconsistent on the road this season and hasn’t won in Cleveland since 1984. As the stunningly low total for this game indicates, the defenses will be the star of the show here, as Cleveland has one of the best stop units in the league while the Niners will be looking to take advantage of the inexperienced Sanders and a Browns offense that has been mistake-prone all season. And yes, “all season” includes last week’s win over the lowly Raiders, an ugly game in which neither team reached 275 total yards and 21 penalties were committed. San Francisco plays a winning brand of football, so this game should look quite different. The Niners offense is finally healthy again after missing many of its top players for long stretches and the results are beginning to show, as they’ve averaged 30.25 ppg in their last four games behind a balanced attack. They may not reach 30 against this fearsome Browns D, but they won’t have to: the Cleveland offense will be overmatched here, and Sanders is a sure bet to take some bad sacks and put a couple of balls up for grabs. San Francisco will win this one in convincing fashion… 20-6 or something like that.
Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks (SEA -11.5, 41)
Recommendation: Minnesota +11.5 at 1.91
Wow, that’s a lot of points! Look, I know Seattle has been rolling, winning 5 of 6 behind a high-scoring offense, and I realize the Vikings will be giving rookie QB Max Brosmer his first career start due to starter J.J. McCarthy being in concussion protocol. Still, though… that’s a lot of points! Minnesota has actually been pretty good on the road this season, pulling upsets over Chicago and Detroit, and though it’s Brosmer’s first start, there have been rumors since training camp that he’s been outperforming McCarthy in practice, and I can tell you that corners of Viking fandom online are very optimistic about this move. Given what we’ve seen out of McCarthy, it’s not like the passing attack could get much worse, right? And weapons like Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson should give Brosmer a fighting chance against a Seahawks defense that has been very average in the secondary. Then there’s the Brian Flores-led Minnesota defense, an excellent unit that ranks 10th in yards allowed and 6th against the pass despite being repeatedly put in difficult situations by the ineptitude of the offense. This Vikings team has been fighting hard and staying competitive, and I don’t expect that to change with a new QB under center on Sunday. Gimme those points.
Denver Broncos @ Washington Commanders (DEN -5.5, 43)
Recommendation: Washington +5.5 at 1.91
The late game Sunday takes us to D.C., where the Commies will look to snap a 6-game skid that has all but extinguished any postseason hopes. They’ll be going with journeyman Marcus Mariota at quarterback again, and, in fairness to Mariota, he’s actually been pretty good over his last couple of starts and has kept the team competitive, most recently losing a tough one to Miami in overtime. He’ll be facing a good Denver defense here, but the Broncos have had some problems with mobile quarterbacks, and Mariota has been using his legs quite effectively even at the ripe old age of 32, rushing 4 times for 49 yards against the Dolphins and averaging better than 7 yards per carry across 27 attempts this season. Plus, he’ll be getting top receiver Terry McLaurin back from injury, a much-needed jolt to a passing attack that has sorely missed his big play ability. This could be a tricky spot for a Denver team that has had trouble putting up points lately, averaging just 16.6 ppg in their last three contests, and has only beaten 1 of their past 7 opponents by more than 4 points.
New York Giants @ New England Patriots (NE -7, 46.5)
Recommendation: New England -7 at 1.91
With a 9-game winning streak that has made them and the first team in the league to reach 10 wins, the Patriots are without a doubt the surprise of the NFL so far this season. That said, the good times almost came to a screeching halt in Cincinnati last week, but Drake Maye rallied the troops and erased a 10-point deficit en route to a 26-20 victory, setting the stage for this Monday night home showcase against the sputtering Giants, losers of 6 straight. Yes, the G-Men are getting rookie QB Jaxson Dart back after a couple of weeks on the injury list, but they’re still without their top offensive weapons and will be relying on the likes of Wan’dale Robinson and Tyrone Tracy to do the heavy lifting. The New York defense has struggled mightily, ranking 30th in the NFL in both yards allowed (385 ypg) and points allowed (27.8 ppg), while the New England offense is top-10 in both of those categories, giving this game an ominous feel for the Giants: outclassed on all sides, interim head coach, a rookie at the game’s most important position… feels like a blowout is incoming. This will be a triumphant moment for Mike Vrabel, Bob Kraft, and all involved in building this New England team back to contender status.
