NFL WEEK 13: The last few weeks have brought some clarity to the 2016 NFL season, with the playoff picture coming into focus and the elite teams beginning to assert themselves. Week 13 may be a little light on the marquee matchups, but with 14 of the 15 scheduled games currently featuring point spreads of 6.5 or fewer, we should be in for some excitement.
It all gets started with a good one on Thursday night, as the NFC-leading Dallas Cowboys travel to Minnesota for a date with the Vikings. It’s been a rocky ride for the Vikes since their 5-0 start, but they’re still just a game back in the NFC North and they have a championship-level defense, so it should be a good test for a Dallas team that has reeled off 10 straight wins and seems to be gaining momentum with each passing week.
Our own fortunes soured last week after a perfect Week 11, but that’s the way it goes sometimes when you try to predict the future (just ask my wife…). I feel very good about this week’s slate, however, and a little pre-Christmas run would make the holiday season a little brighter for everyone, wouldn’t it? With that in mind, here are my thoughts on the Week 13 action:
Houston Texans @ Green Bay Packers (GB -6.5, 45.5)
Recommendation: Green Bay -6.5 at 1.85
The Packers picked up a much-needed win over Philadelphia last week, and now they return home to face a Houston team that has lost two straight and 3 of 5. The problems in Houston all center around the offense, as quarterback Brock Osweiler has been a massive disappointment in his first year with the team and the running game has gradually slowed down as the season has progressed. The Texans have scored 24 points or fewer in each of their past five games and they’ve been especially bad on the road, averaging a mere 13.2 points per game and winning just once in five opportunities.
Fortunately for them, they’ll be facing a Green Bay defense that has been hemorrhaging points over the past month, so maybe Osweiler can find a rhythm. To beat the Packers, however, Osweiler and the Houston offense might need their best game of the season, because Aaron Rodgers has rediscovered his MVP form and the Green Bay offense has kicked it into high gear. Rodgers has now thrown for 297 yards or more in five of his past six games, and his performance last week against a good Philadelphia defense— 30/39, 313 yds, 2 TDs— was a reminder that any talk about a “decline” is indeed premature.
And though the Green Bay defense has its issues, it’s a unit that is stout against the run, surrendering just 90.2 rush yards per game (7th in NFL) and 3.8 yards per carry, so it will be up to Osweiler and the passing game to make things happen. Can you envision this Houston team that is 1-4 on the road and has averaged fewer than 14 points in those games going to Lambeau Field and beating a revived Packers team that badly needs the win? Me neither. As a matter of fact, I don’t expect this one to be particularly close.
Denver Broncos @ Jacksonville Jaguars (Den -4.5, 41.5)
Recommendation: Jacksonville +4.5 at 1.91
This marks the first time all season that I have bet on the Jags, and with good reason: their 2-9 record, lame-duck head coach, and bumbling, incompetent offense don’t exactly inspire a whole lot of confidence. It shouldn’t be surprising, then, that Denver is a very popular public bet at sportsbooks around the world this week, as the opportunity to back the defending Super Bowl champs as a mere 5-point favorite over the hapless Jags has been too tempting for many to resist.
Upon closer examination, however, I’ve warmed up to the idea that this game on Sunday is going to be much more competitive than many expect. The Jags may be a losing team, but they’re still playing hard for coach Gus Bradley and they’re certainly not getting blown out every week, as 8 of their 11 games have been decided by 7 points or fewer. They’ve been especially competitive at home, losing by 4 to Green Bay, 2 to Baltimore, 3 to Houston, and beating Indianapolis. They’ve been able to hang tough in these games because of their defense, a unit that ranks 6th in the NFL in yards allowed and 3rd against the pass. That defense should have plenty of success against a Denver offense that has essentially flatlined over the past few weeks, with quarterback Trevor Siemian dinking and dunking his way to an uninspiring 230 pass yards per game and the running game now in the hands of a rookie.
The Broncos feel like a ship that is slowly sinking— they’ve lost 2 of 3 to fall off the pace in the AFC West, the offense is pedestrian, and even the excellent defense is beginning to show cracks after spending too much time on the field and being put in disadvantageous situations far too often. Going on the road to play a physical, defensive-minded team like Jacksonville is no layup, especially with the struggles that Denver has had on the offensive side of the ball. I don’t know if the Jags will be able to pull off the upset here— snatching defeat from the jaws of victory has become Gus Bradley’s specialty— but something tells me the points could come in handy in what should be a close, low-scoring game.
Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints (NO -5.5, 53.5)
Recommendation: New Orleans -5.5 at 1.87
If you’re looking for a 5-6 team that no one in the NFL wants to play, look no further than the New Orleans Saints. We’ve come to expect great offense out of the Drew Brees-led Saints, but the unit is exceeding all reasonable expectations, as they currently lead the NFL in both total yards and passing yards and rank second in points scored (30.4 ppg). They’re especially dangerous at home, where they’re averaging 34 points per game (!) and just hung 49 on a pretty good Rams defense last week. Mark Ingram has come alive, giving the offense some balance, and the incomparable Brees is slicing teams up like it’s 2009. This week they face a Lions defense that is thoroughly average, ranking 15th in the league in both yards allowed and points allowed, so we can expect Brees and Co. to light up the scoreboard once again.
Of course, the offense has pretty much been a constant in New Orleans over the past decade— it’s the defense that is the concern. And that has been true again this season, though it should be mentioned that the Saints D is playing much better over the last several weeks than they were early in the season, as they’ve now held 5 consecutive opponents to 25 points or fewer. Detroit is in the midst of an offensive funk, averaging just 19.4 points per game over their last 5 contests, so it’s certainly not a given that Matt Stafford will be able to get things moving and turn this one into a back-and-forth quarterback duel.
That being said, “back and forth” pretty much encapsulates Detroit’s entire season: despite winning 7 of their 11 games, the Lions have improbably trailed in the 4th quarter of EVERY game, and all 11 have beed decided by 7 points or fewer. So is this just a gutsy, gritty team that won’t be denied with the game on the line, or is it a smoke-and-mirrors show that will get a harsh dose of reality in the coming weeks? I lean toward the latter option, and I think this may be the week that it all comes crashing down. The Saints are rolling and the Dome is going to be rocking. I don’t think the 5.5-point number will be much of a concern.
