Not everyone puts much faith in historical trends. Many psychologists have spent years theorising why one team will invariably beat another team, as have many fans.
There is no obvious explanation, for instance, to why Bolton Wanderers invariably beat West Ham (10 of the last 14 meetings). Nor is there any single reason why the Washington Redskins hold the Indian Sign over the New York Jets.
The Jets have beaten the Redskins once in nine games, and on Sunday they square off again in Washington.
The Jets do so with a warning from quarterback Mark Sanchez ringing in their ears. He said on his radio programme this week that there’s “not a chance” his team make the playoffs if he and the rest of the team play the way they did in a 28-24 comeback victory over Buffalo last weekend. If the season ended today, the Jets would miss the playoffs.
With New England’s win in Philadelphia, the Patriots hold a two-game lead in the AFC East over the Jets, whose best chance of fulfilling Rex Ryan’s prophesy that they will win the Super Bowl can seemingly only happen if they go to the post-season as a wild card.
Ryan makes his Super Bowl statements as often as we long for cosy liaisons with nubile 19-year-old college girls – about once every five minutes – and we’d really only start listening to prophesies if Saint Tebow of Denver started making them.
The Jets are a largely veteran team built to win NOW. What happens on the other side of NOW in the NFL is often ugly.
Yet they are still well placed, sitting a game behind the Cincinnati Bengals who occupy the final wild card spot. The Bengals also face a tough clash in Pittsburgh on Sunday.
Yet we have to ask: Are the Jets legitimate?
In spite of their 6-5 record, those five losses have come against teams with a winning record and they are 1-5 against these so-called ‘quality opponents’. Fortunately, four of their remaining five games come against teams who currently boast a losing record.
The Redskins halted their six-game losing slide by scoring 16 points in the final quarter to win 23-17 on the road in Seattle last weekend, with Rex Grossman throwing for over 300 yards (if you’re not on the ‘Grossman for Hall of Fame’ bandwagon after that, now’s the time to grab a sousaphone and hop on board).
Washington’s defence is holding up well, yet a crippling injury list has restricted their attacking options and Grossman now faces a defence that has allowed just 11 passing touchdowns in 11 games (only Baltimore, with seven, have allowed fewer). Furthermore, they don’t give up big plays, conceding just 27 passes of 20 yards or more this season (only three teams have given up fewer).
Realistically, now that they are three games behind those currently occupying the two NFC wild card spots, the Redskins have little more than pride to play for.
As is so often the case when bad teams get off the schneid, they regress back to their old ways shortly after.
Neither team run the ball well: Washington are averaging a lowly 3.7 yards per attempt, while the Jets are at a meagre 3.78ypa.
Yet the Jets have the edge at the quarterback position. Sanchez may have his critics but he has proven time and again that when the Jets are on the road in pressure situations, he invariably takes the team on his shoulders and comes through.
So despite their poor record against the Redskins, in the battle between Rex and Rex, we take Jets’ coach Ryan to out-wit Redskins’ quarterback Grossman for a dirty, sweet victory.
Cincinnati can keep themselves in the playoff picture by winning in Pittsburgh, just three weeks after they lost 24-17 at home to the Steelers.
The Bengals can blow the NFC North race wide open if they avoid a series sweep for the second time in as many season, and as they showed in their first clash at Paul Brown Stadium, there really isn’t much between the two teams.
The Steelers will face two division rivals in four days as they take on Cleveland at Heinz Field on Thursday night and they may do so without influential safety Try Polamalu, who is suffering from a concussion. Even if they don’t win, we should expect the Bengals – who are just a game behind Pittsburgh and Baltimore in the division – to come out all guns blazing and they receive a handy 7-point start.
Just like the Jets’ historical ineptitude in Washington, Dallas also invariably struggle in Arizona.
Despite having an extra rest period after their somewhat fortunate Thanksgiving Day win over the Miami Dolphins, the Cowboys won’t relish the trip to face the Cardinals.
They have lost six of their last seven road trips to Arizona and there was an immediate and major swing towards Arizona on the handicap when the lines first appeared in Vegas on Sunday night, with the Cowboys now favoured by 4.5 points, as opposed to the opening 6.5 and 7.0 in some places.
Given the statistical analysis, the Cowboys should be able to win this one and keep their position at the top of the NFC East.
The Cardinals, with a 4-7 record, have realistically little to play for and while they do stop the run better than Dallas and have better success in stopping opponents on third-down situations (33.33%), the Cowboys have the better quarterback among other things. Tony Romo’s passer rating – a complicated mathematical formula which is grossly underappreciated as a useful measure of team success – is 96.03 (fourth-best in the league).
Another way of measuring a team’s success is their passing yards per attempt. When you take account gross passing yards, minus yards lost via sacks and also divide by total drop-backs each quarterback makes, it gives a much more reliable indicator of how well a team moves a ball, compared to simply dividing yards by completions. While Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers sets the pace in this category, Romo is ranked seventh in the NFL in Real passing yards per attempt at 7.29ypa.
The Cardinals have yet to beat a team with a winning record in four attempts and it would be a surprise if a rested Dallas team did not manage to see off their hosts. I’d be tempted to play safe and go with the Moneyline, however.
Suggestions:
New York Jets -3
Dallas
Cincinnati +7
Follow Simon Milham on Twitter: @simonmilham
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