NFL WEEK 14: As the weather gets colder the playoffs creep closer, and most of the games this week have postseason implications of some sort, so we should be in for some good football. We certainly got a nice appetizer on Thursday night, as the NFC-leading Detroit Lions held off division rival Green Bay in a 34-31 thriller that featured several bold (putting it mildly) 4th-down conversion tries by the Lions, one of which came with less than a minute left in the game, the score tied 31-31, and Detroit in comfortable field goal range. The conversion was successful and the Lions were able to run the clock all the way down before kicking the game-winning field goal, so all’s well that ends well I guess, but these decisions by Dan Campbell are bordering on reckless, and it will be interesting to see whether this style of play comes back to bite Detroit in the playoffs. One thing’s for sure: Campbell is not going to change. He won’t grow timid in high-drama situations. We haven’t seen the last 4th-and-meaningful for the Lions this season.
There are 12 more games on this week’s slate, with a nice mix of divisions rivalries and interconference matchups that we don’t see too often. And there are some big numbers out there, too, as only one game (Sea @ Ari) currently features a point spread of 3 or fewer. Here are my favorites:
New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants (NO -5, 40.5)
Recommendation: New York +5 at 1.99
Betting on the Giants, or any team that has lost 7 straight games, is a bit dicey to say the least, but I think they have two things going for them in this spot: 1. they are going with Drew Lock at QB, who in my opinion is a clearly superior option to Tommy DeVito. Lock has shown flashes of competence in his NFL career and seemed to be gradually getting the hang of things over the course of the Dallas game last week after a long period of inactivity. I expect him to be reasonably effective against a New Orleans defense that ranks 29th against the pass. 2. the Saints keep on losing their good players, with Taysom Hill the latest name to be added to IR after tearing his ACL last week. With Hill, Chris Olave, and Rashid Shaheed all now sidelined, there isn’t much pop in the New Orleans passing attack and the offense is going to struggle. This has the feel of one of those ugly, low-scoring cold weather games, and I’ll take my chances with the 5-point home ‘dog.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (TEN -3.5, 40.5)
Recommendation: Tennessee -3.5 at 2.06
This one might be even uglier than Saints/Giants, and with an identical total of 40.5, we shouldn’t be expecting much in the way of offensive fireworks. The Jags have lost five straight but have actually covered in 4 of those 5 games, which may explain why they are “only” a 3.5-point ‘dog here despite starting a backup QB on the road. That backup, Mac Jones, will be facing a Titans defense that ranks second in the league in yards allowed and first against the pass, surrendering just 171.8 yards per game through the air. On the other side of the ball it’s weakness vs. weakness, as the inept Jacksonville D, a unit that ranks last in the NFL in both total yards allowed and pass yards allowed, will look to contain a struggling Titans offense led by mistake-prone second-year QB Will Levis. The Titans were hammered by Washington last week but they pulled off an upset win in Houston the week before, and Levis has been on a mild upswing of late, throwing for a combined 785 yards, 5 TDs, and only 2 INTs in the team’s past three games. He has a golden opportunity to keep it going against the porous Jacksonville defense, and I expect him to lead the Titans to a relatively comfortable victory here.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (KC -4, 42.5)
Recommendation: Los Angeles +4 at 1.95
I know it’s the Chiefs, and I know they’re 11-1, but let’s not sugarcoat it: It’s been ugly lately. They are struggling to find answers. Last week they escaped with a 19-17 win over the lowly Raiders after a botched snap cost Vegas a chance at a game-winning field goal, and the week before they needed a field goal as time expired to beat the 3-9 Carolina Panthers. The week before that, it was a loss to Buffalo. I’m not saying it’s time to press the panic button, but the offense is bogged down and really only has two guys — Travis Kelce and DeAndre Hopkins — they can rely on to make plays, and the defense hasn’t been playing as well as they were earlier in the season, especially in the secondary. The Chargers have won 5 of 6 behind a defense that leads the league in points allowed and a dynamic QB who has been playing clean, efficient football. This is going to be another dogfight for the Chiefs and I’m not sure they’re going to escape with the W. I feel like when the Chiefs actually do lose again, everyone will talk like it was obvious in hindsight due to their struggles in all these close wins. Let’s get ahead of “hindsight”, eh?
Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys (CIN -5, 49.5)
Recommendation: Cincinnati -5 at 1.91
Say what you will about Cooper Rush, but he’s now 7-3 in his career as a starter after guiding the Cowboys to back-to-back wins over division rivals Washington and New York. I do think the fun stops this week, however — the Bengals, despite sporting a 4-8 record, have one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses, a unit that ranks 5th in the league with 27.9 points per game. Quarterback Jow Burrow leads the NFL in passing yards, and tailback Chase Brown has emerged as a key piece who has provided the offense with some much-needed balance. And then, of course, there’s Ja’Marr Chase, the premier receiver in the game and the league leader in receiving yards and touchdowns. These high-flying Bengals will be facing a Dallas defense that has surrendered more points than every NFC team with the exception of Carolina. Sure, the Bengals have defensive issues of their own, but with Cooper Rush at the controls, to what extent can the Dallas offense take advantage? This has 34-21 written all over it. Gimme the Bengals.
