NFL WEEK 14: With only five weeks remaining in the regular season the playoff races are heating up, and each game becomes more meaningful. Thursday night’s Cowboys/Lions showdown, for instance, was critical for both teams, and Detroit’s resounding victory has put Dallas’s postseason hopes on life support. At 6-6-1, two games back in the division and 2.5 games back of the final NFC Wild Card spot, the Cowboys probably need to win their final four games to have a chance. Detroit is in slightly better shape at 8-5, though Dan Campbell’s group would also be on the outside looking in if the playoffs started today.
This is the last week for byes, so the Patriots, Giants, 49ers, and Panthers will get some late-season rest, but we still have 12 games on the slate for Sunday plus the Monday nighter… these are the type of weekends we pine for in June. Let’s see if we can make something out of it with these three:
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets (MIA -2.5, 41)
Recommendation: New York +2.5 at 1.99
Two AFC East rivals who are all but out of playoff contention face off here on what should be a chilly day in New York, with sub-freezing wind chills expected. The Dolphins have traditionally struggled in cold weather situations like this (7 straight losses when kickoff temps were below 45 degrees F), and Mike McDaniel’s crew doesn’t exactly strike you as a tough-minded, grind-it-out type of team. The defense has been bad, especially against the run, where they rank 28th in rushing yards allowed and are surrendering a miserable 4.8 yards per carry. That’s good news for a Jets offense that relies heavily on the running of Breece Hall and the scrambling ability of QB Tyrod Taylor, who has now officially replaced the ineffective Justin Fields as the starter. With Taylor at the helm there has been a marked improvement on offense, which is the main reason why the Jets have been so competitive lately, going 3-2 in their last five and putting up 27 points or more in each of the three wins. The New York defense has been solid all year, especially in the secondary, where they are top-10 against the pass, surrendering fewer than 200 yards per game through the air. This feels like a sneaky tough spot for Tua and the Fins.
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars (IND -1.5, 46)
Recommendation: Indianapolis -1.5 at 1.91
The Colts will try to exorcise some demons in Jacksonville this weekend, a place they haven’t won in a decade despite playing there every year (and facing some truly terrible Jaguars teams in that span). This is a huge game, as both teams sit at 8-4, tied atop the AFC South but in a precarious position should they lose here, with Houston just a game back in the division and the Wild Card hopefuls all having 4 to 6 losses. The Jags have won 4 of 5 but have been feasting on a weak schedule, with those wins coming over the likes of Las Vegas, Arizona, and Tennessee. Facing an Indianapolis team with a top-5 offense that leads the AFC in scoring will obviously be a huge step up in competition, and the Jacksonville secondary, a group that ranks 24th in the NFL against the pass, is a major concern. But the real concern for the Jags remains the play of quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who, despite the big contract and undisputed arm talent, is maddeningly inconsistent and remains prone to bad turnovers at inopportune times. First-year coach Liam Coen has done a nice job of taking some pressure off of Lawrence by running the ball more and dumbing down the passing offense that we saw Baker Mayfield execute so effectively last season, but he may be forced to open it up a bit against this explosive Colts offense, and we just don’t have much proof that Trevor can succeed in situations like that. I predict Indianapolis finally breaks the Duval curse and pulls out a much-needed win here.
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers (GB -6.5, 44.5)
Recommendation: Chicago +6.5 at 1.91
Two of the NFL’s original franchises meet at storied Lambeau Field on Sunday with first place in the NFC North on the line… does it get any better than this? The Frozen Tundra might actually be frozen for this one, as a bitterly cold afternoon is forecasted, with expected temps well below freezing and trending towards frost bite territory. I think this should favor the visiting Bears and their bruising 1-2 punch at running back, with DeAndre Swift and Kyle Monangai currently playing their best football of the season while totally changing the identity of this Chicago offense. In last week’s 24-15 win over defending Super Bowl champ Philadelphia, for instance, Bears QB Caleb Williams only threw for 154 yards, but Swift and Monangai each topped 125 yards on the ground and both found paydirt. It was the first time in 40 years (!) that Chicago has had two players exceed 100 rushing yards in the same game, and Green Bay should expect a heavy dose of this new-look power rushing attack (Thunder & Thunder?) on Sunday. The Packers have been more reliant on the Jordan Love-led passing attack than the ground game, so they might have to adjust their approach in this one due to both the weather and a Bears defense that is better in the secondary than the front seven. This just feels like too many points to give a confident Chicago team seeking their sixth straight win. Gimme the Bears.
