NFL WEEK 14: Postseason aspirations are on the line for several teams in this pivotal Week 14, as a tightening playoff race means that losses can no longer be afforded. Take the Buffalo/Pittsburgh game, for instance: the Steelers are 7-5 and would miss the playoffs if the season ended today, but they’re tied with Baltimore atop the AFC North and just a game back of the final Wild Card spot, so there’s real urgency to win. The Bills, for their part, are 6-6 and in a true backs-to-the-wall situation, as they probably need to win their final four games to snag a Wild Card berth. But we see a 6-6 team make the playoffs every year, so I’m sure Rex Ryan’s team still feels like they’re in the thick of it and will produce a “hair on fire” effort this Sunday.
And that game is just one of many that feature two teams in what are essentially must-win situations— Redskins/Eagles, Cardinals/Dolphins, Broncos/Titans, Texans/Colts, and Saints/Bucs all fit the mold. So it should be a great week of football, starting with an excellent Thursday nighter that will see the 9-3 Chiefs travel to Oakland to face their arch-rival Raiders, who lead the division at 10-2. The upstart Raiders are a slight favorite but the Chiefs have proven to be awfully sneaky in the role of underdog, winning their last three such games.
Our own fortunes have floundered a bit over the past two weeks and the season as a whole hasn’t yet lived up to the standards of years past, but with four weeks and the entire postseason still ahead there’s ample time to change that narrative. With that in mind, here are this week’s selections:
San Diego Chargers @ Carolina Panthers (Car -1.5, 48.5)
Recommendation: San Diego +1.5 at 1.93
Things are coming unraveled in Carolina, as the Panthers were beaten 40-7 by Seattle last week and now find themselves at 4-8 as they return home to face San Diego. Effort and enthusiasm seem to be lacking, which is why Ron Rivera was quoted on Monday saying that he was concerned about the “mental state” of his team.
They’d better get it together quickly, because Philip Rivers is coming to town and he won’t be very sympathetic. Rivers has been typically brilliant this year, ranking 6th in the NFL in pass yards per game and leading an offense that ranks 4th in points scored (27.8 ppg). The Carolina secondary, meanwhile, has been painfully bad, surrendering more passing yards than every team in the league other than Atlanta. If you think that sounds like a recipe for disaster for the Panthers, you’re not alone.
If Rivers has his way with the defense, it’s going to up to Cam Newton and the Carolina offense to match him score-for-score. Problem is, Newton seems rather disinterested and disengaged at the moment and is clearly not playing his best football. The vaunted Carolina rushing attack has gone dormant as well, and it will be tough to get things going against a San Diego defense that allows fewer than 90 yards per game on the ground. This is a bad matchup all-around for the Panthers, and we haven’t seen anything out of them that would suggest an awakening is on the horizon.
Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers (Sea -2.5, 46.5)
Recommendation: Green Bay +2.5 at 1.98
The Packers were left for dead a couple of weeks ago, but after back-to-back wins over Philadelphia and Houston they find themselves right back in the thick of the playoff race at 6-6. Aaron Rodgers has come alive, throwing for 297 yards or more in five of his past seven games and looking very much like the Rodgers of old after a slow start to the season.
This week Rodgers and Co. will welcome Seattle to the friendly confines of Lambeau Field, and the Seahawks will be playing their first game since losing All-Pro safety Earl Thomas to a broken leg. The impact of Thomas’ loss can’t be overstated: he’s the lynchpin of Seattle’s famed Legion of Boom and probably the best safety in the entire NFL. The Seahawks had already taken a slight step back in their passing defense, ranking 9th against the pass after being a fixture in the top-5 for years, and things are sure to get worse with Thomas on the sideline. Facing Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau would be a challenge anyway, but without Thomas the ‘Hawks are at a clear disadvantage.
The other side of the ball brings some better news for Seattle, as Green Bay has had issues defensively and will have its hands full with a rejuvenated Russell Wilson. The Seahawks have had problems on the o-line, however, which is a big reason why they rank a pedestrian 20th in rushing offense, and the Packers have been fairly stout against the run, surrendering just 3.8 yards per carry and 92.9 yards per game. So it may be up to Wilson, who is one of the game’s best young QBs but who leads an offense that is not equipped for shootouts. If it comes down to Wilson vs. Rodgers at Lambeau, I know where my money’s going.
Atlanta Falcons @ Los Angeles Rams (Atl -6, 44.5)
Recommendation: L.A. +6 at 1.89
After dropping two of three to fall out of solo first in the NFC South, it’s fair to wonder whether Atlanta may be in the beginning stages of another late-season collapse. Some warning signs are there: the defense is dreadfully bad once again, surrendering more points than all but three teams leaguewide, and the offense could be without its best player, Julio Jones, after he sustained a turf-toe injury in last week’s loss to Kansas City. At the time of this writing Jones is listed as questionable for Sunday, but even if he plays he’s likely to be slowed by an injury that usually takes 2-4 weeks to heal.
The Rams have a solid defense, ranking 10th in total yards allowed and 9th against the pass, and they’ve beaten some good quarterbacks this year, with three of their four wins coming against the likes of Russell Wilson, Carson Palmer, and James Winston. Containing Matt Ryan and the high-flying Falcons will certainly be a challenge, but not an insurmountable one, especially if Jones is less than 100% healthy.
The real advantage the Rams will have comes on the other side of the ball, where their struggling offense gets a dream matchup: a home game against a defense that ranks last in the NFL against the pass and is nearly as bad against the run, surrendering a healthy 4.3 yards per carry. Rookie quarterback Jared Goff is finally set up for success after three difficult starts to begin his NFL career, and running back Todd Gurley, who has had a supremely frustrating year as the No. 1 target of opposing defenses, will never have a better opportunity to break through. I have a hunch Gurley has a monster game here, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Rams won this one outright.
